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All eyes are on the Middle East following Iran's aerial attack against Israel this weekend. Retaliating for what is widely thought to have been an Israeli strike on an Iranian embassy in Syria earlier this month, Tehran fired hundreds of drones and missiles toward Israel—nearly all of which were intercepted.
The strikes have increased tensions in the region and sparked new fears of a wider war. It's unclear how or when Israel may respond, but leaders from around the world are urging restraint in hopes of avoiding further escalation.
Just days before Iran's attack, RAND's Michelle Grisé wrote about the prospects of a direct conflict between Israel and Iran. She focused on why Russia, which has deepened its partnership with Iran in recent years, “stands to lose a great deal” if such a war breaks out.
For one, a broader conflict in the Middle East—particularly one that involves a direct clash between Israel and Iran—could cause new tensions between Russia and Iran. It would limit Iran’s ability to continue serving as a military supplier to Russia, and lead Tehran to demand more Russian support when Moscow has limited capacity to provide it.
Further, a war in the Middle East could give China an opening to serve as a mediator. This may be especially worrying for Moscow, as its war in Ukraine has already contributed to Russia’s growing dependence on China.
Grisé notes that Russia has capitalized on instability in the Middle East in the past. Look no further than Syria and Libya, where it was able to establish itself as a regional security guarantor. But this time, Moscow is in no position to reap similar benefits from a broad conflict in the region.
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