From RAND Policy Currents <[email protected]>
Subject Assessing Threats to the 2024 Presidential Election
Date April 9, 2024 7:51 PM
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Policy Currents | The newsletter for policy people
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Policy Currents
** April 9, 2024
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2024 U.S. Presidential Election: Preparing for a 'Perfect Storm' of Threats

From foreign government interference to allegations of fraud by domestic leaders, the 2020 U.S. presidential election was mired in conflict and controversy. In fact, assertions that the election was "stolen" gained so much traction that, as certification began, a crowd rallied and attacked the U.S. Capitol.

As the 2024 election approaches, a new RAND paper considers whether and how similar threats could resurface, as well as the potential for new challenges to election credibility. The authors focus on the vulnerabilities of three types of assets necessary for fair, democratic elections: physical assets, such as voting machines; human assets, such as election officials; and reputational assets, such as public confidence in elections.

Although threats to any one of these areas could undermine the credibility of U.S. elections, there is also the possibility of a perfect storm in which several seemingly unrelated threats target these assets simultaneously. Further, AI could accelerate the storm's effects.

What can be done to guard against these risks, rebuild Americans' trust in the democratic process, and ensure the integrity and legitimacy of U.S. elections? The authors identify three keys: increased public awareness about threats to U.S. elections--and how to detect them; engaging in strategic planning to ensure rapid and effective responses; and strengthening engagement with all levels of government.

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U.S.-India Ties Remain Fundamentally Fragile

Continued partnership with India holds immense promise for U.S. security interests, particularly Washington's strategy to counter China. However, says RAND's Derek Grossman, relations are more fragile than they might appear. For instance, there are U.S. concerns about India's democratic values and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's crackdown on human rights. India has also engaged in activities that counter the West and continues to maintain a strong partnership with Russia. If these areas of friction are not addressed, it could ultimately undermine or even derail future U.S.-India cooperation.

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How Some Veterans Describe Their Support for Extremist Groups and Beliefs

Throughout 2023, RAND researchers conducted 21 interviews with military veterans who had previously indicated support for one or more extremist groups or beliefs. While it isn't possible to draw causal connections between veterans' experiences and their support for extremist groups, it's worth noting that roughly three-quarters of interviewees reported a negative or traumatic life event while in the military, including from interpersonal conflict, combat trauma, and physical or sexual abuse. Further, over half of interviewees reported difficulties while adapting to civilian life, including time spent unhoused or time in jail or prison.

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