2024 U.S. Presidential Election: Preparing for a 'Perfect Storm' of Threats

From foreign government interference to allegations of fraud by domestic leaders, the 2020 U.S. presidential election was mired in conflict and controversy. In fact, assertions that the election was “stolen” gained so much traction that, as certification began, a crowd rallied and attacked the U.S. Capitol.

As the 2024 election approaches, a new RAND paper considers whether and how similar threats could resurface, as well as the potential for new challenges to election credibility. The authors focus on the vulnerabilities of three types of assets necessary for fair, democratic elections: physical assets, such as voting machines; human assets, such as election officials; and reputational assets, such as public confidence in elections.

Although threats to any one of these areas could undermine the credibility of U.S. elections, there is also the possibility of a perfect storm in which several seemingly unrelated threats target these assets simultaneously. Further, AI could accelerate the storm's effects.

What can be done to guard against these risks, rebuild Americans' trust in the democratic process, and ensure the integrity and legitimacy of U.S. elections? The authors identify three priorities: increased public awareness about threats to U.S. elections—and how to detect them; engaging in strategic planning to ensure rapid and effective responses; and strengthening engagement with all levels of government.