Policy Currents | The newsletter for policy people
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** April 4, 2024
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How Climate Change Will Affect Conflict and U.S. Military Operations

U.S. Central Command--also known as CENTCOM--oversees military operations in some of the hottest places on the planet. Its region stretches from Egypt, through Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, and into Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia.

How might climate change alter the security environment where CENTCOM operates? That's the question at the heart of a recent RAND research project. Our experts used machine learning to forecast the potential effects of climate change over the next several decades--and what those effects might mean for violence or unrest across the CENTCOM region.

Overall, they concluded that climate stress will become more intense and more frequent throughout the Middle East and Central Asia. This could mean that CENTCOM will be called upon less to fight wars, and more to airdrop humanitarian supplies or evacuate people from disaster zones.

But CENTCOM should prepare to contribute more to stability operations in the region, working to prevent possible climate impacts--such as disputes over water or rare minerals--from tipping into open conflict.

While the findings make it clear that climate change will affect conflict, one of the authors, Karen Sudkamp, noted that it could also create opportunities for cooperation. The issue could become a "low-stakes arena for countries in the region to come together and talk to each other," she said. "Maybe that can reduce the potential for some kinds of conflict, too."

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Does AI Increase the Risk of Biological Attacks?

Can AI help a terrorist group plan a devastating biological attack? RAND recently conducted an experiment to answer this question by bringing together a group of experts to role-play as the bad guys. Teams of researchers were tasked with planning a hypothetical biological attack. Some had access to large language models, or LLMs, while others could only use the internet. In the end, today's LLMs failed to provide any meaningful information beyond what could be found through a simple Google search. This is good news, but it's important to continue to monitor the evolution of LLMs and their potential for misuse.

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Supporting Ukraine Isn't Just a Good Deed. It's a Good Deal for the U.S.

More than two years into Russia's war in Ukraine, some believe that supporting Ukraine isn't in the U.S. interest. But according to Tod D. Wolters of the Atlantic Council and RAND's Ann Marie Dailey, supporting a Ukrainian victory can go a long way toward helping the United States reassert itself at a time when its influence is faltering. This would enhance U.S. influence on key global issues such as space governance, AI, and preventing terrorism. "Failing to support Ukraine now," they say, "might kick off an American losing streak that could take decades to overcome."

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** RAND Recommends
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- Andrew Morral, codirector of the RAND Gun Policy in America initiative, has been selected to serve as the inaugural Greenwald Family Chair in Gun Policy.
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- RAND's Naoko Aoki spoke to Voice of America about U.S.-Japan security cooperation. "For Japan, the question is how to achieve greater military integration while maintaining proper levels of independence," she said.
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- RAND is offering a professional development certificate program for U.S. college and university faculty who serve underrepresented populations. Apply online by April 17.
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** Events
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How Gendered Perspectives Shape National Security
Thursday, April 18, 2024 (Santa Monica, CA, and Online)
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Policy Lab: How Can New Technologies Help Mitigate the Effects of Climate Change?
Wednesday, April 24, 2024 (Online)
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Long War in Europe: Options for the United States, Poland, and Allies for 2024 and Beyond
Thursday, April 25, 2024 (Washington, D.C., and Online)
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