How Climate Change Will Affect Conflict and U.S. Military Operations

U.S. Central Command—also known as CENTCOM—oversees military operations in some of the hottest places on the planet. Its region stretches from Egypt, through Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, and into Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia.

How might climate change alter the security environment where CENTCOM operates? That's the question at the heart of a recent RAND research project. Our experts used machine learning to forecast the potential effects of climate change over the next several decades—and what those effects might mean for violence or unrest across the CENTCOM region.

Overall, they concluded that climate stress will become more intense and more frequent throughout the Middle East and Central Asia. This could mean that CENTCOM will be called upon less to fight wars, and more to airdrop humanitarian supplies or evacuate people from disaster zones.

But CENTCOM should prepare to contribute more to stability operations in the region, working to prevent possible climate impacts—such as disputes over water or rare minerals—from tipping into open conflict.

While the findings make it clear that climate change will affect conflict, one of the authors, Karen Sudkamp, noted that it could also create opportunities for cooperation. The issue could become a “low-stakes arena for countries in the region to come together and talk to each other,” she said. “Maybe that can reduce the potential for some kinds of conflict, too.”