Policy Currents | The newsletter for policy people
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** March 26, 2024
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The U.S.-China Rivalry in a New Medieval Age
We've entered an age of neomedievalism. This doesn't mean the world is slipping back into an era of knights, castles, swords, and serfdom. But it does mean that some defining trends of the Middle Ages are reappearing today. Power and wealth are concentrated in the hands of an elite few. Governments are becoming weaker. And pervasive threats, such as pandemics and disasters, are increasing. In other words, the recent era of prosperity and national strength is regressing.
A 2023 RAND study looked at the implications this backslide could have for the U.S.-China rivalry. Our experts examined how the current era of neomedievalism may affect the intensifying competition between China and the United States--and a potential U.S.-China conflict.
The researchers concluded that, in a neomedieval era, neither the United States nor China can afford total war. Thus, both Washington and Beijing will face pressure to avoid escalation, likely leading to a long-running, low-intensity state of conflict with the possibility of intermittent clashes.
Accepting the reality of a neomedieval era is key to developing effective strategies for U.S.-China competition. "Decisionmakers need to adopt a neomedieval mindset," says Timothy Heath, who led the RAND study. In fact, he says, leaders should be skeptical of any recommendations that refer to the Cold War or the world wars to explain U.S.-China dynamics. The world doesn't work that way anymore.
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A 'Firehose of Falsehood' After the Moscow Attack?
Last Friday night, four gunmen opened fire in a Moscow concert hall and set fire to the building, killing at least 137 people. The Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack, and U.S. intelligence has confirmed that Islamic State affiliate ISIS-K was planning a deadly assault. Russia, however, is assigning blame to Ukraine--without providing any evidence to support this notion. This is indicative of the Kremlin's typical approach to propaganda, which RAND researchers call the "firehose of falsehood." In a popular 2016 paper, they broke down key aspects of Russian disinformation and what can be done to counter it.
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Americans Need to Know How the Government Uses AI
What could be done to help make Americans more comfortable with how the government uses AI for surveillance? To start, RAND experts say that government agencies need to take the time to understand what it will take to build public trust. Further, agencies using technology to surveil Americans could pull back the curtain to explain how and why they do it. And of course, new technologies should always be deployed carefully--with a clear understanding of benefits and risks, especially from the perspective of the most deeply affected communities. In this case, government slowness can be an asset, not a hindrance.
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** RAND Recommends
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- RAND's Raphael Cohen spoke to NPR's Morning Edition about whether Israel is--by its own definition--winning the war against Hamas.
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- In the Baltimore Sun, RAND's Joie Acosta wrote about the effects of Maryland's rising energy costs--especially on low-income households.
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- RAND is offering a one-day, introductory training course focused on how research and analysis inform national security decisionmaking. Applications are now open.
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** Events
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Policy Lab: How Can New Technologies Help Mitigate the Effects of Climate Change?
Wednesday, April 24, 2024 (Online)
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