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We've entered an age of neomedievalism. This doesn't mean the world is slipping back into an era of knights, castles, swords, and serfdom. But it does mean that some defining trends of the Middle Ages are reappearing today. Power and wealth are concentrated in the hands of an elite few. Governments are becoming weaker. And pervasive threats, such as pandemics and disasters, are increasing. In other words, the recent era of prosperity and national strength is regressing.
A 2023 RAND study looked at the implications this backslide could have for the U.S.-China rivalry. Our experts examined how the current era of neomedievalism may affect the intensifying competition between China and the United States—and a potential U.S.-China conflict.
The researchers concluded that, in a neomedieval era, neither the United States nor China can afford total war. Thus, both Washington and Beijing will face pressure to avoid escalation, likely leading to a long-running, low-intensity state of conflict with the possibility of intermittent clashes.
Accepting the reality of a neomedieval era is key to developing effective strategies for U.S.-China competition. “Decisionmakers need to adopt a neomedieval mindset,” says Timothy Heath, who led the RAND study. In fact, he says, leaders should be skeptical of any recommendations that refer to the Cold War or the world wars to explain U.S.-China dynamics. The world doesn't work that way anymore.
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