Dear MoveOn member,
The latest polls show a virtual toss-up between President Joe Biden and
Donald Trump. And now we're seeing a slew of media coverage about the
importance of turning out "swing voters" and "undecideds."^1,2
Except, it's total BS.
The New York Times just published hard data on actual turnout, and the
results proved one important point: Winning isn't about turning so-called
"swing voters" into Biden voters. It's about turning out people who might
not go to the polls at all.^3
It's true, John. The Times reported that pretty much every
election victory we've had in the last two years in the midterm elections
and special elections was due to unexpectedly high turnout—at least 4
points more than projected—by Democratic voters.^4 And here's the
important part: MoveOn knows exactly how to turn out these same voters in
November.
With so much on the line this year, we're not going after mythical
"undecideds" or relying on campaign tactics that haven't worked since the
'90s. We've researched and tested a highly effective method of getting
unlikely voters to the polls so we can defeat Trump and his
anti-democratic plans. But there's a catch: Our method is time- and
resource-intensive, which is why we've launched an ambitious $32 million
plan around it that is already in the works. But as a grassroots
organization, our resources come from people like you donating what you
can to make our plans a reality.
We've kicked off our $32 million plan to reach the millions of voters we
need to surge to the polls. Will you join our fight by starting
a $5 monthly donation to help save our democracy and put
Trump in jail, not in the White House? Your sustained support will ensure
we have the funds we need to run our program all the way through Election
Day.
[ [link removed] ]Yes, I'll chip in monthly.
[ [link removed] ]No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.
If you watch network television, you know the airwaves are already flooded
by campaign ads attempting to frighten people into voting for Trump and
his MAGA Republicans.
But most studies show that these ads don't really move the needle at all
on voter choices and turnout at the polls.^5 And those mass texts from
candidates? Just a 0.29% increase in turnout.^6
That's just not enough to soundly defeat Trump in every swing state, which
is what we need to do if we're going to stop a MAGA White House. What will
stop him, however, is vote tripling, a tactic MoveOn pioneered at scale in
2020.
Vote tripling is based on relational organizing—the idea that people are
much more likely to listen to their friends and social networks than
anonymous ads and outreach. Relational organizing has been proven to be
the absolute best way, by orders of magnitude, to not only inform people
but turn them into likely voters who will show up on Election Day.^7
MoveOn has taken relational organizing and super-powered it by providing
an easy way to reach out to friends and family, talk to them about the
issues they care about the most, and help them make a plan to get to the
polls. Not only did MoveOn's vote tripling result in 50,000 unlikely
voters casting a ballot in 2020 in key states and districts, it's been
proven to be five times more effective than other methods!
So here's the plan: Our analytics team has already identified the 11
million surge voters in key states who might not go to the polls without a
bit of a boost. Now we're activating our political experts and seasoned
organizers to begin the outreach—letting those voters know, through
postcards sent by volunteers, targeted ads, texts and phone-banking, and
more, about the terrible policies that Trump plans to implement and we
know those voters disagree with. Then we will kick off vote tripling and
get them to the polls!
John, as a MoveOn member, you know that our very democracy is
on the line this year. You know we must do everything possible to stop a
MAGA takeover. And you know that MoveOn was built for this work—for more
than a quarter of a century, we've been the ones pounding the pavement and
doing whatever is necessary to get voters to the polls. We will succeed in
November—if you step up for us right now.
Please, will you help fund our election work by becoming
a $5 monthly donor to MoveOn today?
[ [link removed] ]Yes, I'll chip in monthly.
[ [link removed] ]No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.
Thanks for all you do.
–Mohammad, Kelly, Mona, Alexis, and the rest of the team
Sources:
1. "Trump v Biden: who's ahead in the polls?" The Economist, February 9,
2024
[link removed]
2. "New poll breaks down swing voters who dislike both Biden and Trump,"
NBC News, October 25, 2023
[link removed]
3. "Turnout Data Reveals the Core of Democrats' Success in Special
Elections," The New York Times, February 3, 2024
[link removed]
4. Ibid.
5. "How Much Do Campaign Ads Matter?" Kellogg Insight, November 1, 2021
[link removed]
6. "Largest-Ever Study On Relational Organizing Shows 8.3% Increase In
Turnout," Impactive, October 9, 2020
[link removed]
7. Ibid.
Want to support MoveOn's work? The MAGA movement's book bans have forced
teachers and librarians across the country to remove books from their
shelves and censor what young people can learn. MoveOn is fighting back,
including by filling a "Banned Bookmobile" with books that the far right
has banned and driving it to key cities and towns to raise the visibility
of book bans, hand out banned books for free, and bring people together to
stop censorship. To keep up the fight against book bans and the MAGA
politicians who support them, we need your help.
Will you start a monthly gift to power and sustain MoveOn's critical
work?
[ [link removed] ]Yes, I'll chip in $5 a month.
[ [link removed] ]No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.
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