Dear MoveOn member,
The latest polls show a virtual toss-up between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump. And now we're seeing a slew of media coverage about the importance of turning out "swing voters" and "undecideds."1,2
Except, it's total BS.
The New York Times just published hard data on actual turnout, and the results proved one important point: Winning isn't about turning so-called "swing voters" into Biden voters. It's about turning out people who might not go to the polls at all.3
It's true, John. The Times reported that pretty much every election victory we've had in the last two years in the midterm elections and special elections was due to unexpectedly high turnout—at least 4 points more than projected—by Democratic voters.4 And here's the important part: MoveOn knows exactly how to turn out these same voters in November.
With so much on the line this year, we're not going after mythical "undecideds" or relying on campaign tactics that haven't worked since the '90s. We've researched and tested a highly effective method of getting unlikely voters to the polls so we can defeat Trump and his anti-democratic plans. But there's a catch: Our method is time- and resource-intensive, which is why we've launched an ambitious $32 million plan around it that is already in the works. But as a grassroots organization, our resources come from people like you donating what you can to make our plans a reality.
We've kicked off our $32 million plan to reach the millions of voters we need to surge to the polls. Will you join our fight by starting a $5 monthly donation to help save our democracy and put Trump in jail, not in the White House? Your sustained support will ensure we have the funds we need to run our program all the way through Election Day.
No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.
If you watch network television, you know the airwaves are already flooded by campaign ads attempting to frighten people into voting for Trump and his MAGA Republicans.
But most studies show that these ads don't really move the needle at all on voter choices and turnout at the polls.5 And those mass texts from candidates? Just a 0.29% increase in turnout.6
That's just not enough to soundly defeat Trump in every swing state, which is what we need to do if we're going to stop a MAGA White House. What will stop him, however, is vote tripling, a tactic MoveOn pioneered at scale in 2020.
Vote tripling is based on relational organizing—the idea that people are much more likely to listen to their friends and social networks than anonymous ads and outreach. Relational organizing has been proven to be the absolute best way, by orders of magnitude, to not only inform people but turn them into likely voters who will show up on Election Day.7
MoveOn has taken relational organizing and super-powered it by providing an easy way to reach out to friends and family, talk to them about the issues they care about the most, and help them make a plan to get to the polls. Not only did MoveOn's vote tripling result in 50,000 unlikely voters casting a ballot in 2020 in key states and districts, it's been proven to be five times more effective than other methods!
So here's the plan: Our analytics team has already identified the 11 million surge voters in key states who might not go to the polls without a bit of a boost. Now we're activating our political experts and seasoned organizers to begin the outreach—letting those voters know, through postcards sent by volunteers, targeted ads, texts and phone-banking, and more, about the terrible policies that Trump plans to implement and we know those voters disagree with. Then we will kick off vote tripling and get them to the polls!
John, as a MoveOn member, you know that our very democracy is on the line this year. You know we must do everything possible to stop a MAGA takeover. And you know that MoveOn was built for this work—for more than a quarter of a century, we've been the ones pounding the pavement and doing whatever is necessary to get voters to the polls. We will succeed in November—if you step up for us right now.
Please, will you help fund our election work by becoming a $5 monthly donor to MoveOn today?
No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.
Thanks for all you do.
–Mohammad, Kelly, Mona, Alexis, and the rest of the team
Sources:
1. "Trump v Biden: who's ahead in the polls?" The Economist, February 9, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/187491?t=6&akid=375003%2E40999114%2EAuhYk4
2. "New poll breaks down swing voters who dislike both Biden and Trump," NBC News, October 25, 2023
https://act.moveon.org/go/187492?t=8&akid=375003%2E40999114%2EAuhYk4
3. "Turnout Data Reveals the Core of Democrats' Success in Special Elections," The New York Times, February 3, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/186323?t=10&akid=375003%2E40999114%2EAuhYk4
4. Ibid.
5. "How Much Do Campaign Ads Matter?" Kellogg Insight, November 1, 2021
https://act.moveon.org/go/187493?t=12&akid=375003%2E40999114%2EAuhYk4
6. "Largest-Ever Study On Relational Organizing Shows 8.3% Increase In Turnout," Impactive, October 9, 2020
https://act.moveon.org/go/165496?t=14&akid=375003%2E40999114%2EAuhYk4
7. Ibid.
Want to support MoveOn's work? The MAGA movement's book bans have forced teachers and librarians across the country to remove books from their shelves and censor what young people can learn. MoveOn is fighting back, including by filling a "Banned Bookmobile" with books that the far right has banned and driving it to key cities and towns to raise the visibility of book bans, hand out banned books for free, and bring people together to stop censorship. To keep up the fight against book bans and the MAGA politicians who support them, we need your help.
Will you start a monthly gift to power and sustain MoveOn's critical work?
No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.
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