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An Iranian Mohajer 10 drone is displayed at a defense industry exhibition on August 23, 2023, in Tehran. (Photo by Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images)
American support for Ukraine remains unresolved, and the strategic implications of a victorious Russia are damning for the West. Senior Fellow Can Kasapoğlu [[link removed]] identifies one chilling and significant result of the war: strong and growing military-industrial ties between Moscow and Tehran. To learn why supporting Ukraine has ramifications for thwarting Iran’s ambitions in the Middle East and beyond, read the full memo [[link removed]] or see the highlights below.
Also, be sure to follow [[link removed]] Kasapoğlu’s weekly military situation reports about the war in Ukraine. The latest edition is available here [[link removed]].
Read the full memo. [[link removed]]
Key Insights
1. The war in Ukraine is giving Iran crucial drone warfare data.
While high-profile items like the Su-35 air-superiority fighter and the S-400 strategic surface-to-air missile (SAM) system make the headlines, the most important gains Tehran has made during the Russian invasion of Ukraine have been in the realm of drone warfare. The numbers illustrate just how potent Iran’s drone warfare capabilities have become. With the war, the Iranian defense technological and industrial base has gained access to a giant database obtained from combat operations. Such input is invaluable for running critical military programs.
2. The joint Russian-Iranian drone production plant poses a threat to NATO’s eastern front.
The marked increase in both the number of Russian salvos and the proportion of Iranian loitering munitions involved in those strikes can mean only one thing: that the drone plant in Tatarstan operated jointly by Russia and Iran is producing prolifically. According to press resources, Russia and Iran have agreed on a three-stage plan for the facility. The initial phase of production is designed to produce 100 drones per month, while the second and third stages are meant, respectively, to ramp production up to 180 and 226 loitering munitions per month. In the first and second stages, Iran is to deliver critical components such as engines, with the Russian defense industry gaining full design and production capacity in the third phase. With the Tatarstan facility up and running, the prospects of similar operations mushrooming in different corners of Russia have only risen. Such a development would pose a grave threat to NATO’s eastern front.
3. Russia is helping the Islamic Republic make its airspace more dangerous than ever.
The Islamic Republic has been pursuing a troika of Russian systems: the Su-35 super-maneuverable fighter, the Mi-28 attack helicopter, and the Yak-130 light-attack jet aircraft. Additional acquisitions may also be in the offing; while Iranian leadership turned down a recently proposed deal for S-400 strategic SAM systems, indicating that their very own Bavar-373 suffices to protect the country’s airspace, Western news outlets do not rule out the prospect of Tehran reviving the deal. Accordingly, the Western intelligence community should remain vigilant over any cooperation between Moscow and Tehran involving anti-stealth radars and space program assets, keeping in mind that the latter can easily translate into intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Quotes may be edited for clarity and length.
Read the full memo. [[link removed]] Go Deeper
Overmatch [[link removed]]
In November 2022, as Iranian drones were beginning to make an impact in Ukraine, Senior Fellows Michael Doran [[link removed]] and Can Kasapoğlu [[link removed]] analyzed that Iran’s disruptive offensive capabilities could allow it to achieve dominance in the Middle East and drive America’s regional allies closer to Moscow and Beijing in Tablet [[link removed]].
Read [[link removed]]
Three Things about the Israel-Hamas War | February 7, 2024 [[link removed]]
“President Joe Biden is seeking to buy Iran’s quiescence at the expense of Israel’s security,” argues Senior Fellow Michael Doran [[link removed]] in the latest edition of Three Things about the Israel-Hamas War. Subscribe to the newsletter here [[link removed]].
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A Crisis in the IDF? [[link removed]]
Senior Fellow Michael Doran [[link removed]] joins Gadi Taub on Israel Update [[link removed]] to discuss American strikes on Iran-backed militants and a potential morale crisis in the Israel Defense Forces amid its war against Hamas.
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Make Iran Fear America Again [[link removed]]
In the Wall Street Journal [[link removed]], Hudson Distinguished Fellow Walter Russell Mead [[link removed]] warns that Iran will continue to provoke crises in the Middle East and beyond unless the Biden administration seizes back the initiative.
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