An Iranian Mohajer 10 drone is displayed at a defense industry exhibition on August 23, 2023, in Tehran. (Photo by Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images)

American support for Ukraine remains unresolved, and the strategic implications of a victorious Russia are damning for the West. Senior Fellow Can Kasapoğlu identifies one chilling and significant result of the war: strong and growing military-industrial ties between Moscow and Tehran. To learn why supporting Ukraine has ramifications for thwarting Iran’s ambitions in the Middle East and beyond, read the full memo or see the highlights below.

Also, be sure to follow Kasapoğlu’s weekly military situation reports about the war in Ukraine. The latest edition is available here.

Key Insights

1. The war in Ukraine is giving Iran crucial drone warfare data.

While high-profile items like the Su-35 air-superiority fighter and the S-400 strategic surface-to-air missile (SAM) system make the headlines, the most important gains Tehran has made during the Russian invasion of Ukraine have been in the realm of drone warfare. The numbers illustrate just how potent Iran’s drone warfare capabilities have become. With the war, the Iranian defense technological and industrial base has gained access to a giant database obtained from combat operations. Such input is invaluable for running critical military programs.

2. The joint Russian-Iranian drone production plant poses a threat to NATO’s eastern front.

The marked increase in both the number of Russian salvos and the proportion of Iranian loitering munitions involved in those strikes can mean only one thing: that the drone plant in Tatarstan operated jointly by Russia and Iran is producing prolifically. According to press resources, Russia and Iran have agreed on a three-stage plan for the facility. The initial phase of production is designed to produce 100 drones per month, while the second and third stages are meant, respectively, to ramp production up to 180 and 226 loitering munitions per month. In the first and second stages, Iran is to deliver critical components such as engines, with the Russian defense industry gaining full design and production capacity in the third phase. With the Tatarstan facility up and running, the prospects of similar operations mushrooming in different corners of Russia have only risen. Such a development would pose a grave threat to NATO’s eastern front.

3. Russia is helping the Islamic Republic make its airspace more dangerous than ever.

The Islamic Republic has been pursuing a troika of Russian systems: the Su-35 super-maneuverable fighter, the Mi-28 attack helicopter, and the Yak-130 light-attack jet aircraft. Additional acquisitions may also be in the offing; while Iranian leadership turned down a recently proposed deal for S-400 strategic SAM systems, indicating that their very own Bavar-373 suffices to protect the country’s airspace, Western news outlets do not rule out the prospect of Tehran reviving the deal. Accordingly, the Western intelligence community should remain vigilant over any cooperation between Moscow and Tehran involving anti-stealth radars and space program assets, keeping in mind that the latter can easily translate into intercontinental ballistic missiles.

Quotes may be edited for clarity and length. 

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