Policy Currents | The newsletter for policy people
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** Jan. 2, 2024
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How Much Is the War in Ukraine Costing Russia?
In a new report, RAND researchers assess the costs Russia is incurring as a result of its invasion of Ukraine.
They estimate that Russia's military costs reached $40 billion as of September 2022. And for all of 2022, Russian GDP losses were between $81 billion and $104 billion, with financial capital destruction amounting to $322 billion.
According to our experts, Russia can sustain these costs for at least several years, as its economy continues to rely on export revenue from oil and gas sales. However, over the long term--even with a stalemated war--Russia's economy and Russians' standard of living are likely to decline.
Still, war costs alone won't cause Russia to end its invasion, the researchers write. More likely, a combination of many factors--battlefield losses, social unrest, dissatisfaction among Russian elites, and the aforementioned economic decline and drop in living standards--would drive any change in the war effort.
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Israel-Hamas War: The Trouble with a Cease-Fire
Calls for a cease-fire in Gaza are understandable. Who wouldn't want the devastation to end? But these demands could make things even worse, says RAND's Raphael Cohen. To start, Israel is facing an existential threat; cease-fire calls are unlikely to change its policy. Further, even if this were not the case, a cease-fire may have unintended consequences that ultimately lead to another, even bloodier war. So, what can the international community do to help ease the suffering in Gaza? Pressure Israel to be more precise in its use of force; push for more humanitarian aid; and, the day after the war ends, force a conversation about a long-term political solution.
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Using Wastewater Surveillance as an Early Warning System
Worldwide struggles to monitor the transmission of COVID-19 highlighted the need for improved public health "early warning systems." One promising approach, says RAND Europe's Sana Zakaria, is wastewater surveillance. This was used with some success during the pandemic--when fragments of genetic material from COVID-19 were identified in sewer water, enabling targeted public health action. What needs to happen next to help communities and countries use wastewater surveillance to track future pathogens and diseases?
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** RAND Recommends
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- RAND's Max Griswold spoke to the Los Angeles Times about the results of a recent study he led: "Our overall finding is crime-free housing policies are completely ineffective."
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- Natural disasters are becoming costlier and more frequent. A recent RAND report looks at what can be done to make U.S. households more financially resilient to such events.
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- By its own admission, China's military "continues to struggle to attract and retain educated and skilled people who can use the weapons and equipment," RAND's Timothy Heath tells Indo-Pacific Defense Forum.
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** Events
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Harnessing Quantum Technology for the Benefit of Society
Thursday, January 18, 2024 (Online and Santa Monica, CA)
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Charting Your Course: A Guide to Analyzing State Policy Studies
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 (Online)
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Not the X-Files: Where Are Americans Reporting UFOs?
Thursday, January 25, 2024 (Online)
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