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Photo by Maxim Shemetov/Reuters
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In a new report, RAND researchers assess the costs Russia is incurring as a result of its invasion of Ukraine.
They estimate that Russia's military costs reached $40 billion as of September 2022. And for all of 2022, Russian GDP losses were between $81 billion and $104 billion, with financial capital destruction amounting to $322 billion.
According to our experts, Russia can sustain these costs for at least several years, as its economy continues to rely on export revenue from oil and gas sales. However, over the long term—even with a stalemated war—Russia's economy and Russians’ standard of living are likely to decline.
Still, war costs alone won’t cause Russia to end its invasion, the researchers write. More likely, a combination of many factors—battlefield losses, social unrest, dissatisfaction among Russian elites, and the aforementioned economic decline and drop in living standards—would drive any change in the war effort.
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Calls for a cease-fire in Gaza are understandable. Who wouldn't want the devastation to end? But these demands could make things even worse, says RAND's Raphael Cohen. To start, Israel is facing an existential threat; cease-fire calls are unlikely to change its policy. Further, even if this were not the case, a cease-fire may have unintended consequences that ultimately lead to another, even bloodier war. So, what can the international community do to help ease the suffering in Gaza? Pressure Israel to be more precise in its use of force; push for more humanitarian aid; and, the day after the war ends, force a conversation about a long-term political solution. Read more »
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Worldwide struggles to monitor the transmission of COVID-19 highlighted the need for improved public health “early warning systems.” One promising approach, says RAND Europe's Sana Zakaria, is wastewater surveillance. This was used with some success during the pandemic—when fragments of genetic material from COVID-19 were identified in sewer water, enabling targeted public health action. What needs to happen next to help communities and countries use wastewater surveillance to track future pathogens and diseases? Read more »
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Events
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Thursday, January 18, 2024 – Online and Santa Monica, CA
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Tuesday, January 23, 2024 – Online
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Thursday, January 25, 2024 – Online
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