A particularly ugly round of DC dealmaking is in the works.

Tuesday, December 5, 2023
BY CROOKED MEDIA

- Sen. Tommy Tuberville, after all he got was screwing up the lives of members of the military by blocking all promotions for no gain whatsoever.

American policy on Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan and the U.S.-Mexico border will all be subject to the same unsavory political dealmaking in Washington D.C. this week. It’s an ugly process set to frame the agenda for vital U.S. foreign policy issues, and even the 2024 election.

* The next few days will determine how far Republicans in Congress are willing to go to risk letting Russian President Vladimir Putin steamroll through Europe. They could even determine whether Ukraine holds out against Russia at all. Ukrainian officials begged… er, briefed… senators today on the country’s desperate need for weapons and aid as it fights to repel Russia’s invasion. “We’re at the end of our rope” as winter sets in over Eastern Europe, an advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy advisor said. The briefing was apparently a shitshow of yelling and fried tempers, and Zelenskyy, who’d been scheduled to join via video call, didn’t even show up ([link removed]) . But the message was still desperate: Without more U.S. help, Russia will start winning the war. Why all the public urgency? Because Congress is in the throes of negotiating President Biden’s huge $105 billion request that combines aid for Ukrai
ne, Israel, Taiwan ([link removed]) and spending at the U.S.-Mexico border. It’s clear that the Trumpist GOP base, which controls the House and the fate of Speaker Mike Johnson, is not interested in helping Ukraine repel Putin… unless they can get a major crackdown on migrants and asylum seekers in exchange. Their hostage-taking approach will sound familiar to anyone who’s followed the GOP’s tactics on the debt ceiling ([link removed]) or government shutdowns. The wrinkle here is that Senate Republicans mostly support aid to Ukraine. They’re having an awful time convincing their House pals to compromise with Democrats, who control the Senate and the White House. In short: it’s a mess.

* In exchange for Ukraine aid, House Republicans are demanding a right-wing wishlist of border crackdowns, which have all been pulled together into a legislative slop-bucket known as H.R. 2. ([link removed]) That bill passed the GOP House with exactly zero Dem votes back in May. At the time, it was just a GOP fantasy about cutting off asylum seekers and building Trump’s border wall. Now, Republicans are effectively saying: We’re perfectly happy to let Putin’s goons march up to the doorstep of America's European allies, if Democrats won’t “build the wall.” Literally no Democrat supports this trade-off. But the normal give-and-take, in which House Republicans and Senate Dems would reach a compromise that nobody loved completely, but which would allow Ukraine to defend itself, isn’t really operating here. House Republicans are demanding all of H.R. 2—or no deal. If that sounds like a garbage non-compromise… you’re right. It is! That’s not how the American politica
l deal-making system—whatever you may think of it—has worked in the past. GOP Sen. John Cornyn explained it quite well yesterday ([link removed]) : “This is not a traditional negotiation, where we expect to come up with a bipartisan compromise on the border. This is a price that has to be paid in order to get the (Ukraine aid).”

Build the wall or… we let Putin win! Ronald Reagan would be so proud of today’s GOP!

* What explains Speaker Mike Johnson’s absurdist hardline non-negotiating position? For starters, the GOP has taken a disturbing and dangerous pro-Putin jag ever since their dear leader, disgraced former President Donald Trump, came to power. Zelenskyy refused to give in to Trump’s extortion attempt three years ago. (Aka, the one that led to Trump’s first impeachment ([link removed].) .) Republican hard-liners have also spent years spreading Trump’s lie that Ukraine, not Russia, interfered in the 2016 election. These lies have consequences: They help create a faux-rationale for backing away from Ukraine. The second part is pure politics. Johnson says he supports sending aid to Ukraine. But he’s in the same trap as his predecessor, doomed ex-Speaker Kevin McCarthy. In theory, Johnson could go around the right-wingers with a coalition of Dems and
anti-Russia hawk Republicans. But he’d face a furious rebellion from Trumpists, and likely lose his job. When real governing is not an option, this is the result.

* This dynamic also explains why Johnson set up a House vote on the bogus impeachment inquiry against President Biden for next week. Johnson, like McCarthy, had avoided that vote because it is meritless and swing-district Republicans would vote against it. But Johnson is now betting that those swing-district Republicans will get on board with impeachment in order to keep the hard-liners happy and avoid a crack-up that crashes this whole sordid deal. Johnson is throwing Trumpist GOPs the meat they demand, and betting swing-district Republicans will hold the bucket while he does it. Sound gross? It is.


* The Senate will hold a procedural vote Wednesday on Biden’s big $105 billion request for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and the border. Approval with at least 60 votes would send a strong signal that Dems and Republicans in the Senate are on track to negotiate a compromise, and could force Mike Johnson to talk in a serious way. Failure would signal that the two sides are still at loggerheads—and tell Putin that all he has to do is wait for the Americans to abandon his latest victim. The House is currently scheduled to leave town at the end of next week for the rest of the year.



Republicans have shown over and over since Jan. 6 they’re not interested in governing or sharing power like people in democracies do. It’s times like this—when massive questions of global security hang in the balance—that show just how dangerous that can be.

Tomorrow, Wednesday December 6th, join Crooked’s Group Thread event covering the fourth - and hopefully final - Republican Primary Debate. It’ll be a Friends of the Pod Discord-exclusive event so to get access, visit Crooked.com/friends ([link removed]) to learn more and sign up!
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Israeli forces pushed deep into Southern Gaza in the second phase of the war against Hamas. Israeli officials said IDF soldiers were now fighting in the “heart” of Khan Younis, sometimes engaging in house-to-house clashes with Hamas fighters. Israel has also restarted air strikes that are killing “scores” of Palestinian civilians, according to journalists on the ground ([link removed]) . In some cases, Israel’s planes are bombing areas to which civilians had been told to flee. As many as 600,000 civilians were expected to flee south to Rafah, where an equal number are already sheltering up against the border with Egypt. It all raises the question of how much, if at all, Israel intends to abide by U.S. demands for more protection of civilians.


In Washington, the Biden Administration is taking steps to put more pressure on Israel. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced a long-expected visa crackdown on extremist Jewish settlers who’ve taken part in attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank. Officials said the visa ban would hit “dozens” of extremists and their families. (BTW, the sanctions might mean something to Israeli citizens, but some settlers hold dual American-Israeli nationality and don’t need visas at all.) It’s a rare step against Israel, pointing to the political pressure on the Biden Administration to signal opposition to the suffering of Palestinian civilians even as it backs its war against Hamas.


Behind all of this, the Biden Administration is trying to plan for what comes after the war. Officials are working on a policy proposal that would put the Palestinian Authority in charge of Gaza. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu rejects the idea. And there are a lot of concerns with the PA’s “legitimacy and capability.” ([link removed]) But it’s also possible U.S. officials aren’t counting on Netanyahu to stick around after the war ends, given his government’s failure to predict or defend against Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack.


The Biden Administration’s funding request for Israel and Palestinian civilians is being debated in Congress. Most of the $14.3 billion would be pegged for Israel's air and missile defense systems. There’s also $9.2 billion for humanitarian aid in Israel, Palestine and Ukraine. House Republicans have refused to tie that funding to aid for Ukraine or the U.S. border with Mexico, while progressives demand the U.S. place conditions on Israel’s use of American aid. For now, the Israel money has been eclipsed by the fight over Ukraine, so don’t expect much to be resolved before next week.

Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.), who you may remember from this viral postcard from Kevin McCarthy’s ouster ([link removed]) , is leaving Congress. McHenry chairs the Financial Services Committee and served as Speaker Pro-Tem when McCarthy got axed. That’s a pretty good signal that McHenry doesn’t think Republicans will keep House control in 2024.


Special Counsel Jack Smith revealed how he’ll attempt to prove Donald Trump’s criminal intent ([link removed]) in the upcoming federal coup trial set to begin March 4. Smith said in a filing that he’ll show how Trump sowed mistrust with months of false statements about a stolen 2020 election, but also how Trump has been lying about stolen elections as far back as 2012.


Speaker Mike Johnson has ticked off Trumpists by slow-rolling his release of Capitol Hill security footage from Jan. 6. Johnson said the faces of rioters must be blurred…to help them avoid prosecution ([link removed]) .


Presidents from three elite universities appeared at a GOP-led hearing on campus antisemitism amid protests of the Israel-Hamas war ([link removed]) , where they defended their attempts to draw the line between free expression and hate speech.


Four gold bars that the FBI found in Sen. Bob Menendez’s home turn out to have been reported stolen from the guy the DOJ accuses of bribing the New Jersey senator ([link removed]) .


GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene wants the Supreme Court to throw out the $100,000 in fines she racked up for refusing to wear a mask in the House ([link removed]) .


The tiny Pacific nation of the Marshall Islands says it needs $35 billion to enact a detailed plan to adapt to sea-level rise ([link removed]) . Even with the aid, the nation’s 42,000 residents may have to abandon the country altogether if ocean levels rise more than two feet.

Kamala Harris became the tie-breakingest veep in U.S. history, surpassing John C. Calhoun and casting a record 32nd vote to bust a 50-50 Senate deadlock ([link removed]) . Majority Leader Chuck Schumer gave Harris a commemorative golden gavel ([link removed]) .

Football guy and GOP Sen. Tommy Tuberville gave up his nearly 10-month blockade of military promotions ([link removed]) , bowing to pressure from even his fellow Republicans, who almost changed Senate rules to get around him. The Senate quickly approved some 400 military officers’ promotions en masse after Tuberville dropped his “hold.” He had been refusing to release the promotions unless the Pentagon rescinded a policy that covered travel-related costs for personnel who need abortions.


Tuberville kept his hold on promotions for several four-star generals, but the vast majority of his blockade is done. In the end, Tuberville got exactly nothing for his stunt, except continued coverage of abortion policy, which has been undermining the GOP in elections and referenda since the Supreme Court overturned Roe. The Pentagon’s policy remains unchanged.
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