Policy Currents | The newsletter for policy people
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** Dec. 5, 2023
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Displaced in Gaza: The Least-Bad Option

Israel has pushed for Egypt to take in the 1.7 million people who have already been displaced since the Israeli military operation in Gaza began roughly two months ago.

According to RAND's Shelly Culbertson, turning Gazans into refugees--particularly in camps--is a poor solution. If they are pushed out to Egypt or elsewhere, then the Palestinian refugee crisis could metastasize and worsen, creating lasting global repercussions.

To start, few refugees would likely ever return to Gaza. Israel has a history of not accepting refugees back, and past RAND research has shown that, even 10 years after a conflict ends, only about 30 percent of refugees have returned home. Return rates are even lower when the conflict is ongoing or unsettled.

Additionally, greater Palestinian displacement could further destabilize the Middle East, making escalation into a regional war more likely--and eroding prospects for long-term peace between Israel and its neighbors.

One thing is clear: The people of Gaza need help. But none of the options for protecting them come without grim trade-offs, Culbertson says. What's the least bad of all the bad options? Keep civilians in southern Gaza, providing protection and humanitarian assistance where they are.

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What Does the Evidence Say About Using AI to Monitor Youth Suicide Risk?

In response to the widespread youth mental health crisis, some schools have begun using AI-based tools that monitor computer activity in an effort to help identify students at risk for suicide and self-harm. A new RAND report examines how such tools are being used, how accurately they can detect a student's risk of suicide, and how they might affect student privacy or exacerbate existing inequalities. One recommendation: If school districts are using these tools, then they should notify parents and students--and be clear about how to opt out.

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COP28: Without Reform, Is the Conference Worth Continuing?

COP28, the annual United Nations climate change summit, is underway in Dubai. Because of consistent shortfalls in achieving climate goals, the countries attending COP have discussed the same items year after year. Further, decisions at the conference are made by consensus, giving each party an equal say. Herein lies the problem, says RAND's Rafiq Dossani. Obtaining the views and permissions of all 198 members has proven cumbersome over the years. If COP is to be productive, then it may be time for a new decisionmaking process.

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** RAND Recommends
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- The world's militaries are serious contributors to climate change. RAND's Paul Cormarie and Scott Stephenson explain how an expanded NATO leadership role in limiting emissions and conserving energy could help.
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- In Education Week, RAND's Elizabeth Steiner explains what school districts and principals can do to recruit and retain teachers of color.
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- Recent funding is finally making the long-neglected gun policy research field viable, RAND's Andrew Morral told Wired. "There's a lot of low-hanging fruit here, but it's going to take a lot of research to start getting persuasive findings, and it's starting to happen."
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** Events
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China, Taiwan, and the United States: The Coming War?
Wednesday, December 13, 2023 (Online)
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