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Israel has pushed for Egypt to take in the 1.7 million people who have already been displaced since the Israeli military operation in Gaza began roughly two months ago.
According to RAND's Shelly Culbertson, turning Gazans into refugees—particularly in camps—is a poor solution. If they are pushed out to Egypt or elsewhere, then the Palestinian refugee crisis could metastasize and worsen, creating lasting global repercussions.
To start, few refugees would likely ever return to Gaza. Israel has a history of not accepting refugees back, and past RAND research has shown that, even 10 years after a conflict ends, only about 30 percent of refugees have returned home. Return rates are even lower when the conflict is ongoing or unsettled.
Additionally, greater Palestinian displacement could further destabilize the Middle East, making escalation into a regional war more likely—and eroding prospects for long-term peace between Israel and its neighbors.
One thing is clear: The people of Gaza need help. But none of the options for protecting them come without grim trade-offs, Culbertson says. What's the least bad of all the bad options? Keep civilians in southern Gaza, providing protection and humanitarian assistance where they are.
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