WHAT THEY ARE SAYING: Virginia Offers the GOP a Silver Lining, Roadmap for
Success





“A closer look at the results in close races shows a very competitive GOP.”



WTAS: Political analysts and commentators agree – the results from last
Tuesday’s elections in Virginia provide Republicans across the country with a
silver lining and a roadmap for competing in early voting, winning the abortion
debate, and over performing in Democrat strongholds.



Here’s what they are saying:

The heady expectations inspired by Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s efforts masked the
underlying realities of winning what remains a Democratic-leaning state.


REAL CLEAR POLITICS: “These maps were supposed to be hard for the GOP to win a
trifecta under, but not impossible in a perfect storm... There were some mildly
surprising results here: Democratic candidates were held under 60% in Districts
10, 20, and 27, all places Biden had won by 30 points or more (and all on the
Fairfax County border), and the 21st District (Biden + 26, Youngkin +2) was a
four-point affair. But these candidates did well. The GOP also held up well in
the Biden/Youngkin districts. They lost three: The aforementioned 21st District
(centered on Haymarket), the 65th District (Fredericksburg), and the 97th
District (Virginia Beach).All told, it was a quite respectable showing for
Republicans. It just wasn’t enough to carry the day under these maps... At the
same time, Virginia is a blue-ish purple state, and these maps reflect that.
Democrats are supposed to win under them. That they did so doesn’t really tell
us much about the national mood.” (Sean Trende, 11/9/23
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)

WASHINGTON POST: “Tuesday’s off-year elections were clearly disappointing for
Republicans. There were nonetheless some silver linings that GOP professionals
would be wise to analyze as they prepare for 2024.These glimmers were
especially evident in Virginia, despite Republicans’ failure to capture control
of the state Senate and loss of control of the House of Delegates. The heady
expectations inspired by Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s efforts masked the underlying
realities of winning what remains a Democratic-leaning state. Joe Biden beat
Donald Trump here by 10 percentage points, while Youngkin won by less than two.
Republicans were always going to have to win a host of seats in districts that
Biden carried by large margins...The GOP should be heartened by how many of
these seats it did carry despite those headwinds. It won all of the districts
that Biden carried by nine points or less, and it ran only a few points behind
Youngkin in most competitive seats.That suggests most of the voters who
switched from Biden to Youngkin stuck with the GOP this year, despite the
emphasis on abortion rights and being outspent by millions of dollars.” (Henry
Olsen, 11/9/23
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)



Youngkin’s strong push for early voting may have saved Republicans from what
could have been a wipeout.





WALL STREET JOURNAL: “Another part of this story you won’t read about: Gov.
Youngkin’s strides against Democratic advantages in early and absentee turnout.
Take the swing state Senate race in Fredericksburg. Republicans started
Election Day in 2022 with a 6,903-vote deficit, according to data from Gov.
Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC.A sophisticated early and absentee voting
operation managed to narrow that deficit to 2,229 votes this year. The
difference mattered: Republican teacher and Marine wife Tara Durant prevailed
by only 1,500 votes.” (The Editorial Board, 11/9/23
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)

CARDINAL NEWS: “I could easily make the argument that Youngkin did a pretty
darned good job of getting Republicans to the polls — he was just up against a
difficult redistricting map. Republicans actually lucked out. Given all the
close races that broke the Republican way, it’s possible that Democrats could
have won six more House seats and three more Senate seats. That’s no
consolation to Republicans who now find themselves in the minority, but things
could have been a lot worse.It looks to me as if Youngkin’s strong push for
early voting may have saved Republicans from what could have been a wipeout.” (
Dwayne Yancey, 11/16/23
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)



Given that their state has trended Democratic for years, Virginia Republicans
held up admirably against a challenging map. The GOP would cheer if it pulled
off similar margin changes in 2024.



WALL STREET JOURNAL: “Given that their state has trended Democratic for years,
Virginia Republicans held up admirably against a challenging map. The GOP would
cheer if it pulled off similar margin changes in 2024. If Republicans flipped
every U.S. House seat Democrats won by 10 points or less in 2022, the GOP would
rack up 50 seats—a 271-seat majority, the biggest GOP seat haul since 1928. GOP
Senate candidates would also be sitting pretty if they do as well in 2024 as
Virginia Republican Senate hopefuls did last week. If GOP candidates won every
state Mr. Biden carried by 9 points or less in 2020 and all the Trump states,
there would be new Republican senators from Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota,
Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Wisconsin—giving the GOP
a 58-seat majority.” (Karl Rove, 11/15/23
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)

SABATO’S CRYSTAL BALL: “Part of the difference between 2019 and 2023, and why
the Republicans are at a smaller deficit in the House than four years ago, is
because they basically won all of the close races this time: Republicans ended
up winning the five closest races (districts 82, 41, 89, 71, and 57), all of
which were decided by 2 points or less. The Democrats’ smallest victory came in
HD-21, which Del.-elect Josh Thomas (D) won by 3.6 points. Back in 2019, the
parties split the four closest races (the only four that were decided by less
than 3 points). Meanwhile, Republicans limited the Democratic Senate majority
in both 2019 and 2023 by doing well in the closest races: Sen.-elect Danica
Roem (D), whose Senate district overlaps with Thomas’s Northern Virginia seat,
was the closest Democratic Senate victor, at a 3.8-point margin; the
Republicans won the two closest races, districts 24 and 27, which were decided
by 1.1 and 1.8 points, respectively. In 2019, Republicans won the four closest
Senate races. So while one could say that in 2023 the Republicans were just two
seats away from an outright House majority and just one seat away from a tied
Senate where Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) could have broken at least some
ties in favor of Republicans (her tiebreaking power would not be absolute in
all matters),it’s also fair to say that the Democrats’ advantage could have
been more robust in both chambers had the GOP not scratched out the closest
victories.” (Kyle Kondik, 11/16/23
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)



Republicans have finally found it: a successful model of how to navigate the
politics of abortion after Dobbs while still winning elections.


WASHINGTON POST: “Republicans have finally found it: a successful model of how
to navigate the politics of abortion after Dobbs while still winning elections.
They just haven’t noticed their success because it comes well-camouflaged as
failure... But that doesn’t mean it was a political mistake for Virginia
Republicans to support a 15-week ban or that Republicans in other states should
run away from one.In many cases, Republican candidates who supported that limit
on abortion were able to withstand attacks over it and win in light-blue areas.
If Republicans nationally could advance as deep into Biden territory as
Virginia Republicans just did, they would win the 2024 elections comfortably.” (
Ramesh Ponnuru, 11/16/23
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)

SEMAFOR: “In fact, local Republicans had united their candidates around a
message – they supported a 15-week abortion ban, Democrats supported no limits
– this summer.They’d fallen short, while carrying every district that voted for
Joe Biden in 2020 by less than 8 points... Every frontline Republican pushed on
abortion adopted Youngkin’s position. Democrats ran abortion-focused ads
warning of a coming Republican ‘ban,’ while GOP candidates, in mail and on TV,
contrasted a 15-week ban with what they framed as Democratic extremism... As
the results came in, Virginia Republicans saw a story to tell;their ticket had
run even stronger than their 2022 congressional ticket, making some inroads
with Democrats and mitigating the abortion challenge.” (David Weigel, 11/10/23
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)

WASHINGTON EXAMINER: “So, if the results in Virginia weren’t the disaster
being portrayed by some in the media, what should Republicans’ realistic
takeaways be? The biggest is also the one that runs most contrary to the
punditry’s apocalypticism: Namely,Youngkin’s abortion message was far more
effective than anything else yet tried by the GOP... But rather than ignore or
sidestep the matter, as Republicans largely did last year , Youngkin countered
by touting his support for a 15-week abortion limit with exceptions, a moderate
policy that has polled reasonably well in Virginia... So, instead of continuing
their freakout over abortion,Republicans should look to Youngkin for a possible
blueprint to neutralize Democrats’ advantage on the matter successfully. By
seeing past the close defeat of this election, the GOP might just be able to
lay the groundwork for a resounding victory in the next one.” (Terry Schilling,
11/12/23
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)

TOWN HALL: “Glenn Youngkin threw himself into winning the Virginia
legislature. Though it did not work out, it andhis abortion compromise did not
provoke a backlash as so much of the media and Democrats have claimed. If
anything, the fact that Virginia, which has become bluer and bluer, did not
overwhelmingly flip to the Democrats in massive numbers should be a testament
to the reasonableness of a three-and-a-half-month compromise... But
aggressively pushing an abortion compromise was not fatal to the GOP. Again,
they didn't win, but they gained a seat in the Senate and only lost four seats
in the House despite being outspent in a state that has trended blue for
years.” (Erick Erickson, 11/10/23
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)

NATIONAL REVIEW: “These results suggest that Virginia GOP’s proposed 15-week
abortion limit was not the electoral albatross for Republicans that many in the
media claim it is.An October Washington Post poll found voters in Virginia —
again, we are talking about a Biden+10 state — were evenly split on enacting a
15-week limit. Yes, Republicans were hurt by ads falsely claiming they wanted a
complete ban without any exceptions and falsely claiming they want to jail
women.” (John McCormack, 11/8/23
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)


###


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