WHAT THEY ARE SAYING: Virginia Offers the GOP a Silver Lining, Roadmap for Success 

“A closer look at the results in close races shows a very competitive GOP.” 

WTAS: Political analysts and commentators agree – the results from last Tuesday’s elections in Virginia provide Republicans across the country with a silver lining and a roadmap for competing in early voting, winning the abortion debate, and over performing in Democrat strongholds.

Here’s what they are saying:

The heady expectations inspired by Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s efforts masked the underlying realities of winning what remains a Democratic-leaning state.  

REAL CLEAR POLITICS: “These maps were supposed to be hard for the GOP to win a trifecta under, but not impossible in a perfect storm... There were some mildly surprising results here: Democratic candidates were held under 60% in Districts 10, 20, and 27, all places Biden had won by 30 points or more (and all on the Fairfax County border), and the 21st District (Biden + 26, Youngkin +2) was a four-point affair. But these candidates did well. The GOP also held up well in the Biden/Youngkin districts. They lost three: The aforementioned 21st District (centered on Haymarket), the 65th District (Fredericksburg), and the 97th District (Virginia Beach). All told, it was a quite respectable showing for Republicans. It just wasn’t enough to carry the day under these maps... At the same time, Virginia is a blue-ish purple state, and these maps reflect that. Democrats are supposed to win under them. That they did so doesn’t really tell us much about the national mood.” (Sean Trende, 11/9/23)

 WASHINGTON POST: “Tuesday’s off-year elections were clearly disappointing for Republicans. There were nonetheless some silver linings that GOP professionals would be wise to analyze as they prepare for 2024. These glimmers were especially evident in Virginia, despite Republicans’ failure to capture control of the state Senate and loss of control of the House of Delegates. The heady expectations inspired by Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s efforts masked the underlying realities of winning what remains a Democratic-leaning state. Joe Biden beat Donald Trump here by 10 percentage points, while Youngkin won by less than two. Republicans were always going to have to win a host of seats in districts that Biden carried by large margins... The GOP should be heartened by how many of these seats it did carry despite those headwinds. It won all of the districts that Biden carried by nine points or less, and it ran only a few points behind Youngkin in most competitive seats. That suggests most of the voters who switched from Biden to Youngkin stuck with the GOP this year, despite the emphasis on abortion rights and being outspent by millions of dollars.” (Henry Olsen, 11/9/23) 

Youngkin’s strong push for early voting may have saved Republicans from what could have been a wipeout.

WALL STREET JOURNAL: “Another part of this story you won’t read about: Gov. Youngkin’s strides against Democratic advantages in early and absentee turnout. Take the swing state Senate race in Fredericksburg. Republicans started Election Day in 2022 with a 6,903-vote deficit, according to data from Gov. Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC. A sophisticated early and absentee voting operation managed to narrow that deficit to 2,229 votes this year. The difference mattered: Republican teacher and Marine wife Tara Durant prevailed by only 1,500 votes.” (The Editorial Board, 11/9/23)

CARDINAL NEWS: “I could easily make the argument that Youngkin did a pretty darned good job of getting Republicans to the polls — he was just up against a difficult redistricting map. Republicans actually lucked out. Given all the close races that broke the Republican way, it’s possible that Democrats could have won six more House seats and three more Senate seats. That’s no consolation to Republicans who now find themselves in the minority, but things could have been a lot worse. It looks to me as if Youngkin’s strong push for early voting may have saved Republicans from what could have been a wipeout.” (Dwayne Yancey, 11/16/23)

Given that their state has trended Democratic for years, Virginia Republicans held up admirably against a challenging map. The GOP would cheer if it pulled off similar margin changes in 2024.

WALL STREET JOURNAL: “Given that their state has trended Democratic for years, Virginia Republicans held up admirably against a challenging map. The GOP would cheer if it pulled off similar margin changes in 2024. If Republicans flipped every U.S. House seat Democrats won by 10 points or less in 2022, the GOP would rack up 50 seats—a 271-seat majority, the biggest GOP seat haul since 1928. GOP Senate candidates would also be sitting pretty if they do as well in 2024 as Virginia Republican Senate hopefuls did last week. If GOP candidates won every state Mr. Biden carried by 9 points or less in 2020 and all the Trump states, there would be new Republican senators from Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Wisconsin—giving the GOP a 58-seat majority.” (Karl Rove, 11/15/23)

SABATO’S CRYSTAL BALL: “Part of the difference between 2019 and 2023, and why the Republicans are at a smaller deficit in the House than four years ago, is because they basically won all of the close races this time: Republicans ended up winning the five closest races (districts 82, 41, 89, 71, and 57), all of which were decided by 2 points or less. The Democrats’ smallest victory came in HD-21, which Del.-elect Josh Thomas (D) won by 3.6 points. Back in 2019, the parties split the four closest races (the only four that were decided by less than 3 points). Meanwhile, Republicans limited the Democratic Senate majority in both 2019 and 2023 by doing well in the closest races: Sen.-elect Danica Roem (D), whose Senate district overlaps with Thomas’s Northern Virginia seat, was the closest Democratic Senate victor, at a 3.8-point margin; the Republicans won the two closest races, districts 24 and 27, which were decided by 1.1 and 1.8 points, respectively. In 2019, Republicans won the four closest Senate races. So while one could say that in 2023 the Republicans were just two seats away from an outright House majority and just one seat away from a tied Senate where Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) could have broken at least some ties in favor of Republicans (her tiebreaking power would not be absolute in all matters), it’s also fair to say that the Democrats’ advantage could have been more robust in both chambers had the GOP not scratched out the closest victories.” (Kyle Kondik, 11/16/23)

Republicans have finally found it: a successful model of how to navigate the politics of abortion after Dobbs while still winning elections. 

WASHINGTON POST: “Republicans have finally found it: a successful model of how to navigate the politics of abortion after Dobbs while still winning elections. They just haven’t noticed their success because it comes well-camouflaged as failure... But that doesn’t mean it was a political mistake for Virginia Republicans to support a 15-week ban or that Republicans in other states should run away from one. In many cases, Republican candidates who supported that limit on abortion were able to withstand attacks over it and win in light-blue areas. If Republicans nationally could advance as deep into Biden territory as Virginia Republicans just did, they would win the 2024 elections comfortably.” (Ramesh Ponnuru, 11/16/23)

SEMAFOR: “In fact, local Republicans had united their candidates around a message – they supported a 15-week abortion ban, Democrats supported no limits – this summer. They’d fallen short, while carrying every district that voted for Joe Biden in 2020 by less than 8 points... Every frontline Republican pushed on abortion adopted Youngkin’s position. Democrats ran abortion-focused ads warning of a coming Republican ‘ban,’ while GOP candidates, in mail and on TV, contrasted a 15-week ban with what they framed as Democratic extremism... As the results came in, Virginia Republicans saw a story to tell; their ticket had run even stronger than their 2022 congressional ticket, making some inroads with Democrats and mitigating the abortion challenge.” (David Weigel, 11/10/23)

WASHINGTON EXAMINER: “So, if the results in Virginia weren’t the disaster being portrayed by some in the media, what should Republicans’ realistic takeaways be? The biggest is also the one that runs most contrary to the punditry’s apocalypticism: Namely, Youngkin’s abortion message was far more effective than anything else yet tried by the GOP... But rather than ignore or sidestep the matter, as Republicans largely did last year , Youngkin countered by touting his support for a 15-week abortion limit with exceptions, a moderate policy that has polled reasonably well in Virginia... So, instead of continuing their freakout over abortion, Republicans should look to Youngkin for a possible blueprint to neutralize Democrats’ advantage on the matter successfully. By seeing past the close defeat of this election, the GOP might just be able to lay the groundwork for a resounding victory in the next one.” (Terry Schilling, 11/12/23) 

TOWN HALL: “Glenn Youngkin threw himself into winning the Virginia legislature. Though it did not work out, it and his abortion compromise did not provoke a backlash as so much of the media and Democrats have claimed. If anything, the fact that Virginia, which has become bluer and bluer, did not overwhelmingly flip to the Democrats in massive numbers should be a testament to the reasonableness of a three-and-a-half-month compromise... But aggressively pushing an abortion compromise was not fatal to the GOP. Again, they didn't win, but they gained a seat in the Senate and only lost four seats in the House despite being outspent in a state that has trended blue for years.” (Erick Erickson, 11/10/23)

NATIONAL REVIEW: “These results suggest that Virginia GOP’s proposed 15-week abortion limit was not the electoral albatross for Republicans that many in the media claim it is. An October Washington Post poll found voters in Virginia — again, we are talking about a Biden+10 state — were evenly split on enacting a 15-week limit. Yes, Republicans were hurt by ads falsely claiming they wanted a complete ban without any exceptions and falsely claiming they want to jail women.” (John McCormack, 11/8/23) 

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