Dear MoveOn member,

If a Biden-Trump election were held today, Joe Biden would lose the
presidential election to Donald Trump by at least 40 Electoral College
votes—249-289—according to new Bloomberg state-by-state polls.^1

In 2020, on the other hand, Joe Biden won the Electoral College by 74
votes.^2

This seemingly seismic shift in the projected Electoral College results
actually comes down to subtle changes among stunningly small numbers of
voters, along with pollsters' models about who is a "likely voter" in
2024, polls' margins of error, and other nuances. It's also a reminder
that victory is never guaranteed—it's a state-by-state and voter-by-voter
slog that will require unprecedented money, volunteers, strategy, and
focus.

The silver lining is that polls are close in many key swing states—in many
cases, within the statistical margin of error.^3 In other words, if we
give the 2024 presidential election our all, we have a clear path to
victory. But if we don't, as these polls show, we'll very likely lose.
That's why today, just over one year from the election, we're announcing
our 2024 election program—and asking for your early support.



Will you start a $5 monthly donation to help launch and
sustain our state-by-state, voter-by-voter effort to hold on to the White
House and the Senate and end MAGA Republican control of the House in 2024?

[ [link removed] ]Yes, I'll chip in monthly.

[ [link removed] ]No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.



Fundraising at MoveOn is historically bad this year. In fact, it's the
very worst we've seen since the Obama years. Back then, as now, grassroots
donor energy dried up. People assumed that because a Democrat was in the
Oval Office, we would be fine. In 2016, some people weren't enthusiastic
about Hillary Clinton, so they didn't donate as much or volunteer as much.
And then we got Donald Trump.

Once that happened, MoveOn was flooded with tens of millions of dollars
and an unprecedented number of new recurring donors, many of whom stuck
with us for the next four years and beyond. But, no matter how much money
we raised, we were relegated to being "the resistance"—and, let's be
honest: No amount of money, or regret about what we didn't do in 2016, was
able to reverse the worst of Trump's presidency.

Timing is everything, John. All too often, we get a wave of
donations at the end of an election cycle. And human psychology guarantees
that if Trump gets a second term, MoveOn will be flooded with money to
fight back. While we will do our best to put that money to good use should
that catastrophic outcome come to pass, we're all much better off if we
fight the forces of inertia and give it our all now!



Will you start a $5 monthly donation to our state-by-state,
voter-by-voter effort to hold on to the White House and the Senate and end
MAGA Republican control of the House in 2024?

[ [link removed] ]Yes, I'll chip in monthly.

[ [link removed] ]No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.



Let's look at what's possible when progressives show up:

In 2020—in many key Electoral College states that decided the election
results—the margin of victory for Biden was just a fraction of 1% of votes
cast.

In Wisconsin, Biden won by a meager 0.6%—just 20,862 votes.

In Arizona, it was a minuscule 0.4%—just 10,457 votes.

And in Georgia, the margin of victory was a razor-thin 0.3%—just 11,779
votes.

These margins were well within the range where get-out-the-vote programs
like MoveOn's were decisive. And well within the range where—had
progressive activist and donor energy been lower—the election would have
gone the other way.

In 2020, MoveOn members collected more than 1 million pledges in support
of the Biden-Harris ticket, focused on just a handful of states like
these. How do you think the election would have gone without that effort?
Or if we'd fallen millions of dollars short on our fundraising? What do
you think would have happened if volunteer energy had been low? Don't let
it happen.



Please: Show up for 2024 today. Will you click below to start a
$5 monthly donation to MoveOn's state-by-state,
voter-by-voter effort to hold on to the White House and the Senate and end
MAGA Republican control of the House in 2024?

[ [link removed] ]Yes, I'll chip in monthly.

[ [link removed] ]No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.



To know what happens when grassroots support is too little, too late, just
look at 2016—a year when, to be honest, grassroots and volunteer energy
wasn't as strong as it should have been.

Trump won, but only because of 10,704 votes in Michigan, 46,765 votes in
Pennsylvania, and 22,177 votes in Wisconsin.

Just a fraction of 1% decided the outcome in 2016. We were well within the
margin where more money and more volunteers could have tipped things
either way. But, because progressives didn't care enough, collectively, we
blew it—and with devastating consequences.

As both 2016 and 2020 show, what we do matters. The state-by-state effort
to win the Electoral College will be nail-bitingly close. Close enough
that, once again, a narrow victory will be possible only with
unprecedented efforts to turn out every last voter. And close enough that,
if progressives show up too late in the cycle, or if not enough show
up—like in 2016—we will be likely to suffer a narrow loss, and with
devastating consequences.



Will you chip in $5 a month to help launch and sustain our
state-by-state, voter-by-voter effort to hold on to the White House and
the Senate and end MAGA Republican control of the House in 2024?

[ [link removed] ]Yes, I'll chip in monthly.

[ [link removed] ]No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.



In 2020, MoveOn ran an unprecedented program to identify and turn out more
than 100,000 "high-potential voters." We defined "high-potential voters"
as being voters and potential voters who fit one or more of these
criteria:

* Voters who cast a ballot for Barack Obama in 2012 but did not vote in
2016.
* Voters who cast a ballot for a third-party candidate in recent
elections.
* Voters who cast ballots in the 2018 midterms but did not vote in 2016.
* New voters who turned 18 after the 2016 election.
* Naturalized citizens who became eligible to vote since 2016.
* And in all of these categories, we were focused specifically on
younger voters and voters of color.

Through extensive research and statistical modeling, we found a whopping 7
million voters who fit into these categories spread across the 14 most
important battleground states. And, largely from that pool, we collected
more than 1 million pledges to vote for Biden. Compare 1 million pledges
to the razor-thin number of voters that made the difference in 2016 and
2020, and it becomes clear why this work is so important. When we focus
targeted outreach efforts on those voters … we win!

The effort to win in 2020 was the biggest and most expensive election
program in MoveOn's 25-year history. Now, to win again, MoveOn will need
an even bigger program to defeat MAGA's very real threats to our freedoms,
rights, and futures and secure a Democratic trifecta. And we can do it
only with your help.



Will you donate $5 monthly to help launch and sustain our
state-by-state, voter-by-voter effort to hold on to the White House and
the Senate and end MAGA Republican control of the House in 2024?

[ [link removed] ]Yes, I'll chip in monthly.

[ [link removed] ]No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.



As shown by these polls—and our 2020 experiences—winning is doable, but it
won't be easy or cheap. And these polls also indicate that losing is also
a strong possibility. That's exactly what happened in 2016, when donors
and volunteers didn't show up in high enough numbers, early enough in the
cycle, to tip the scales.

The challenges we are facing going into 2024 are significant.

* Third parties, like the dark-money outfit No Labels, are seeking to
spoil the election with a third-party candidate who has no chance of
winning but could tip the balance to Trump in key swing states.
* MAGA extremism is on the rise.
* Republicans are attacking voting rights more than ever, and many will
not not even accept the results if they lose.
* Increased disinformation spread on social media and through AI will be
unprecedented and terrifying, leading to much more unpredictability.
* And that's just the beginning.

To fight back, we will need to test hundreds or even thousands of messages
about the critical importance of defeating Trump to millions of voters
across the battleground states, learn which messages are most effective at
convincing voters to sign "Vote Tripling" pledges—pledges to vote and to
help three of their friends or family to vote too—and target the most
powerful messages to millions of individual voters, based on their
location, age, political leanings, and more.

We used a similar method in 2020 to secure victory for Joe Biden and hold
the Senate. And we can do it again.



Click below to donate $5 monthly to MoveOn's
state-by-state, voter-by-voter effort to hold on to the White House and
the Senate and end MAGA Republican control of the House in 2024.

[ [link removed] ]Yes, I'll chip in monthly.

[ [link removed] ]No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.



This year's program will have to be the biggest and most expensive in
MoveOn's history—and it'll be far more important, given that a second
Trump term is on the line.

We will have to purchase thousands of expensive TV and digital ads, send
millions of text messages, create customized videos, and build statistical
models starting early—and then do it over and over again through Election
Day.

We know from experience that we need to make our election plans starting
now. But instead of imagining how big we can go, we are uncertain. Will we
have to shrink our staff due to lack of resources, or will we be able to
scale up, as we did in 2020 and 2022? How big a program will we be able to
run? Are we in for a repeat of 2016? When will grassroots donor energy
will finally tick up—and, if it doesn't, what budget cuts will we have to
make?

It's early enough that we haven't answered these questions yet or made
firm decisions. And it's early enough that we can still go big, if we can
raise the funds. But to do it, we need to catch up on our fundraising and
know that grassroots donor support is there.

Don't wait until next year to help out with elections—please help out
right now, today.



Click below to chip in $5 monthly to MoveOn's
state-by-state, voter-by-voter effort to hold on to the White House and
the Senate and end MAGA Republican control of the House in 2024.

[ [link removed] ]Yes, I'll chip in monthly.

[ [link removed] ]No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.



Thanks for all you do.

–Mohammad, Elsie, Melissa, Kathy, and the rest of the team

Sources:

1. "Latest Election Polls," RealClearPolitics, accessed October 23, 2023
[link removed]
For the purposes of this email, we assume that Biden loses Arizona,
Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin but wins Michigan, which is tied in
the poll. If Biden lost Michigan, he would lose by a whopping 72 Electoral
College votes, 233-305.

2. "Presidential Results," CNN, accessed October 23, 2023
[link removed]

3. Ibid.



Want to support MoveOn's work? Book bans have skyrocketed thanks to
right-wing state laws which have forced teachers to remove books from
their classrooms. In response, MoveOn is launching a "Banned Bookmobile,"
filling it with books that the far right has banned, and driving it around
to hand out those books, for free, in highly trafficked areas that will
attract media attention. To keep the Banned Bookmobile up and running into
2024, we need your help.

Will you start a monthly gift to power our critical work?



[ [link removed] ]Yes, I'll chip in $5 a month.

[ [link removed] ]No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.





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