If a Biden-Trump election were held today, Joe Biden would lose the presidential election to Donald Trump by at least 40 Electoral College votes—249-289—according to new Bloomberg state-by-state polls.¹

In 2020, on the other hand, Joe Biden won the Electoral College by 74 votes.²

This seemingly seismic shift in the projected Electoral College results actually comes down to subtle changes among stunningly small numbers of voters, along with pollsters' models about who is a "likely voter" in 2024, polls' margins of error, and other nuances. It's also a reminder that victory is never guaranteed—it's a state-by-state and voter-by-voter slog that will require unprecedented money, volunteers, strategy, and focus.

The silver lining is that polls are close in many key swing states—in many cases, within the statistical margin of error.³ In other words, if we give the 2024 presidential election our all, we have a clear path to victory. But if we don't, as these polls show, we'll very likely lose. That's why today, just over one year from the election, we're announcing our 2024 election program—and asking for your early support.

Will you start a $5 monthly donation to help launch and sustain our state-by-state, voter-by-voter effort to hold on to the White House and the Senate and end MAGA Republican control of the House in 2024?

Fundraising at MoveOn is historically bad this year. In fact, it's the very worst we've seen since the Obama years. Back then, as now, grassroots donor energy dried up. People assumed that because a Democrat was in the Oval Office, we would be fine. In 2016, some people weren't enthusiastic about Hillary Clinton, so they didn't donate as much or volunteer as much. And then we got Donald Trump.

Once that happened, MoveOn was flooded with tens of millions of dollars and an unprecedented number of new recurring donors, many of whom stuck with us for the next four years and beyond. But, no matter how much money we raised, we were relegated to being "the resistance"—and, let's be honest: No amount of money, or regret about what we didn't do in 2016, was able to reverse the worst of Trump's presidency.

Timing is everything, John. All too often, we get a wave of donations at the end of an election cycle. And human psychology guarantees that if Trump gets a second term, MoveOn will be flooded with money to fight back. While we will do our best to put that money to good use should that catastrophic outcome come to pass, we're all much better off if we fight the forces of inertia and give it our all now!

Will you start a $5 monthly donation to our state-by-state, voter-by-voter effort to hold on to the White House and the Senate and end MAGA Republican control of the House in 2024?

In 2020—in many key Electoral College states that decided the election results—the margin of victory for Biden was just a fraction of 1% of votes cast.

And in Georgia, the margin of victory was a razor-thin 0.3%—just 11,779 votes.

These margins were well within the range where get-out-the-vote programs like MoveOn's were decisive. And well within the range where—had progressive activist and donor energy been lower—the election would have gone the other way.

In 2020, MoveOn members collected more than 1 million pledges in support of the Biden-Harris ticket, focused on just a handful of states like these. How do you think the election would have gone without that effort? Or if we'd fallen millions of dollars short on our fundraising? What do you think would have happened if volunteer energy had been low? Don't let it happen.

Please: Show up for 2024 today. Will you click below to start a $5 monthly donation to MoveOn's state-by-state, voter-by-voter effort to hold on to the White House and the Senate and end MAGA Republican control of the House in 2024?

To know what happens when grassroots support is too little, too late, just look at 2016—a year when, to be honest, grassroots and volunteer energy wasn't as strong as it should have been.

Trump won, but only because of 10,704 votes in Michigan, 46,765 votes in Pennsylvania, and 22,177 votes in Wisconsin.

Just a fraction of 1% decided the outcome in 2016. We were well within the margin where more money and more volunteers could have tipped things either way. But, because progressives didn't care enough, collectively, we blew it—and with devastating consequences.

As both 2016 and 2020 show, what we do matters. The state-by-state effort to win the Electoral College will be nail-bitingly close. Close enough that, once again, a narrow victory will be possible only with unprecedented efforts to turn out every last voter. And close enough that, if progressives show up too late in the cycle, or if not enough show up—like in 2016—we will be likely to suffer a narrow loss, and with devastating consequences.

Will you chip in $5 a month to help launch and sustain our state-by-state, voter-by-voter effort to hold on to the White House and the Senate and end MAGA Republican control of the House in 2024?

In 2020, MoveOn ran an unprecedented program to identify and turn out more than 100,000 "high-potential voters." We defined "high-potential voters" as being voters and potential voters who fit one or more of these criteria:

Through extensive research and statistical modeling, we found a whopping 7 million voters who fit into these categories spread across the 14 most important battleground states. And, largely from that pool, we collected more than 1 million pledges to vote for Biden. Compare 1 million pledges to the razor-thin number of voters that made the difference in 2016 and 2020, and it becomes clear why this work is so important. When we focus targeted outreach efforts on those voters … we win!

The effort to win in 2020 was the biggest and most expensive election program in MoveOn's 25-year history. Now, to win again, MoveOn will need an even bigger program to defeat MAGA's very real threats to our freedoms, rights, and futures and secure a Democratic trifecta. And we can do it only with your help.

Will you donate $5 monthly to help launch and sustain our state-by-state, voter-by-voter effort to hold on to the White House and the Senate and end MAGA Republican control of the House in 2024?

As shown by these polls—and our 2020 experiences—winning is doable, but it won't be easy or cheap. And these polls also indicate that losing is also a strong possibility. That's exactly what happened in 2016, when donors and volunteers didn't show up in high enough numbers, early enough in the cycle, to tip the scales.

To fight back, we will need to test hundreds or even thousands of messages about the critical importance of defeating Trump to millions of voters across the battleground states, learn which messages are most effective at convincing voters to sign "Vote Tripling" pledges—pledges to vote and to help three of their friends or family to vote too—and target the most powerful messages to millions of individual voters, based on their location, age, political leanings, and more.

We used a similar method in 2020 to secure victory for Joe Biden and hold the Senate. And we can do it again.

Click below to donate $5 monthly to MoveOn's state-by-state, voter-by-voter effort to hold on to the White House and the Senate and end MAGA Republican control of the House in 2024.

This year's program will have to be the biggest and most expensive in MoveOn's history—and it'll be far more important, given that a second Trump term is on the line.

We will have to purchase thousands of expensive TV and digital ads, send millions of text messages, create customized videos, and build statistical models starting early—and then do it over and over again through Election Day.

We know from experience that we need to make our election plans starting now. But instead of imagining how big we can go, we are uncertain. Will we have to shrink our staff due to lack of resources, or will we be able to scale up, as we did in 2020 and 2022? How big a program will we be able to run? Are we in for a repeat of 2016? When will grassroots donor energy will finally tick up—and, if it doesn't, what budget cuts will we have to make?

It's early enough that we haven't answered these questions yet or made firm decisions. And it's early enough that we can still go big, if we can raise the funds. But to do it, we need to catch up on our fundraising and know that grassroots donor support is there.

Don't wait until next year to help out with elections—please help out right now, today.

Click below to chip in $5 monthly to MoveOn's state-by-state, voter-by-voter effort to hold on to the White House and the Senate and end MAGA Republican control of the House in 2024.

1. "Latest Election Polls," RealClearPolitics, accessed October 23, 2023
https://act.moveon.org/go/184762?t=16&akid=367580%2E40999114%2E8W0qCx
For the purposes of this email, we assume that Biden loses Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin but wins Michigan, which is tied in the poll. If Biden lost Michigan, he would lose by a whopping 72 Electoral College votes, 233-305.

Want to support MoveOn's work? Book bans have skyrocketed thanks to right-wing state laws which have forced teachers to remove books from their classrooms. In response, MoveOn is launching a "Banned Bookmobile," filling it with books that the far right has banned, and driving it around to hand out those books, for free, in highly trafficked areas that will attract media attention. To keep the Banned Bookmobile up and running into 2024, we need your help.

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