Dear MoveOn member,
Two things are certain about a Biden-Trump rematch next year: First, it
will be nail-bitingly close in our divided nation.
An average of all recent major polls by RealClearPolitics shows Donald
Trump up by 0.5%.^1
Second, what we do matters. Let’s look at what’s possible when
progressives show up:
In 2020—in many key Electoral College states that decided the election
results—the margin of victory for Biden was just a fraction of 1% of votes
cast.
In Wisconsin, Biden won by a meager 0.6%—just 20,862 votes.
In Arizona, it was a minuscule 0.4%—just 10,457 votes.
And in Georgia, the margin of victory was a razor-thin 0.3%—just 11,779
votes.
These margins were well within the range where get-out-the-vote programs
like MoveOn's were decisive. And well within the range where—had
progressive activist and donor energy been lower—the election would have
gone the other way.
In 2020, MoveOn members collected more than 1 million pledges in support
of the Biden-Harris ticket, focused on just a handful of states like
these, and then we turned them out to vote. How do you think the election
would have gone without that effort? Or if we'd fallen millions of dollars
short on our fundraising? What do you think would have happened if
volunteer energy was low?
If we give the 2024 presidential election our all, we have a clear path to
victory. But if we don't, as the polls show, we'll very likely lose and
hand Trump a second term in the White House, putting what's left of our
rights, freedom, and democracy on a knife's edge—for four years (or
longer, since independent analysts don't think Trump would ever give up
power).^2
That's why today, just over one year from the election, we're announcing
our 2024 election program—and asking for your early support.
Will you chip in $5 a month to help launch and make possible
our state-by-state, voter-by-voter effort to hold on to the White House
and the Senate and end MAGA Republican control of the House in 2024?
[ [link removed] ]Yes, I'll chip in monthly.
[ [link removed] ]No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.
Fundraising at MoveOn is historically bad this year. In fact, it's the
very worst we’ve seen since the Obama years. Back then, as now, grassroots
donor energy dried up. People assumed that because a Democrat was in the
White House, we would be fine. In 2016, some people weren’t enthusiastic
about Hillary Clinton, so they didn't donate as much or volunteer as much.
And then we got Donald Trump.
Once that happened, MoveOn was flooded with tens of millions of dollars
and an unprecedented number of new recurring donors, many of whom stuck
with us for the next four years and beyond. But, no matter how much money
we raised, we were relegated to being "the resistance"—and, let’s be
honest: No amount of money, or regret about what we didn’t do in 2016, was
able to reverse the worst of Trump's presidency.
Timing is everything, John. All too often, we get a wave of
donations at the end of an election cycle. And human psychology guarantees
that if Trump gets a second term, MoveOn will be flooded with money to
fight back. While we will do our best to put that money to good use should
that catastrophic outcome come to pass, we're all much better off if we
fight the forces of inertia and give it our all now!
Will you chip in $5 a month to help launch and power our
state-by-state, voter-by-voter effort to hold on to the White House and
the Senate and end MAGA Republican control of the House in 2024?
[ [link removed] ]Yes, I'll chip in monthly.
[ [link removed] ]No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.
Our plans this year are to build off of our success in 2020 identifying
and turning out voters likely to make the most impact in battleground
states. These "surge voters" are Democratic-leaning young voters, new
voters, and voters who have not always shown up to the polls but who
became energized to vote after the rise of Trump.
Our data shows that there are millions of surge voters in battleground
districts and states across the country. And rigorous data analysis by
elections experts shows that when surge voters show up to the polls in
large numbers, Democrats win.^3
That was what worked in 2020, and it will work once again in 2024—if we
have the resources and volunteers, starting now.
Winning is doable, but it won’t be easy or cheap. And the polls show that
losing is a strong possibility. That's exactly what happened in 2016, when
donors and volunteers didn't show up in high enough numbers, early enough
in the cycle, to tip the scales.
The challenges we are facing going into 2024 are significant, including
these:
* Third parties, like the dark-money outfit No Labels, are seeking to
spoil the election with a third-party candidate who has no chance of
winning but could tip the balance to Trump in key swing states.
* MAGA extremism is on the rise.
* Republicans are attacking voting rights more than ever, and many will
not not even accept the results if they lose.
* Increased disinformation spread on social media and through AI will be
unprecedented and terrifying, leading to much more unpredictability.
To fight back, we will need to test hundreds or even thousands of messages
about the critical importance of defeating Trump to millions of voters
across the battleground states, learn which messages are most effective at
convincing voters to sign "Vote Tripling" pledges—pledges to vote and to
help three of their friends or family to vote too—and target the most
powerful messages to millions of individual voters, based on their
location, age, political leanings, and more.
We used a similar method in 2020 to defeat Trump and also to stop a
supposed "red wave" in 2022. And we can do it again—but only with your
help, John.
Will you chip in $5 a month to help launch and sustain our
state-by-state, voter-by-voter effort to hold on to the White House and
the Senate and end MAGA Republican control of the House in 2024?
[ [link removed] ]Yes, I'll chip in monthly.
[ [link removed] ]No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.
Thanks for all you do.
–Mohammad, Alexis, Melissa, Rahna, and the rest of the team
Sources:
1. "General Election: Trump vs. Biden," RealClearPolitics, accessed
October 23, 2023
[link removed]
2. "Donald Trump's John Gotti Moment," Slate, October 21, 2023
[link removed]
3. "The Emerging Anti-MAGA Majority," Weekend Reading, June 8, 2023
[link removed]
Want to support MoveOn's work? Book bans have skyrocketed thanks to
right-wing state laws which have forced teachers to remove books from
their classrooms. In response, MoveOn is launching a "Banned Bookmobile,"
filling it with books that the far right has banned, and driving it around
to hand out those books, for free, in highly trafficked areas that will
attract media attention. To keep the Banned Bookmobile up and running into
2024, we need your help.
Will you start a monthly gift to power our critical work?
[ [link removed] ]Yes, I'll chip in $5 a month.
[ [link removed] ]No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
PAID FOR BY MOVEON POLITICAL ACTION, [ [link removed] ][link removed]?.
Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee. MoveOn Political
Action - PO Box 96142, Washington, D.C. 20090-6142.
You can unsubscribe from this mailing list at any time:
[link removed]
