It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy.

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Photo by Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy. We think of it as a mini-magazine in your inbox.

WHAT IS GOING ON WITH CONGRESS?
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent

We expected to be here. But that does not make it feel any better.

Five days from a federal government shutdown and — unlike in other shutdown countdowns — there is a remarkable lack of clear off-ramps.

Last week, we brought you a detailed look at the complicated dynamics at play. This week, it is go time. Here’s where things stand at this confusing moment.
* Deadline. We are five days from a government shutdown. That would mean most government agencies would close their doors to the public and continue to perform only “essential” functions.
* New moms and young kids. Something new for this shutdown: Funding for the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children program, commonly known as WIC ([link removed]) , is running out. That program provides milk and nutrition for low-income women during and after pregnancy, and children five and younger. Without action by Congress, the program could face a shortfall ([link removed]) as soon as next week.
* A proposed Senate solution. The U.S. Senate is moving ahead with what is usually the solution to these stand-offs: a “clean” or relatively simple bill extending current government funding for a few weeks to buy Congress more time for a longer deal. That is a “CR” or “continuing resolution.” We just read this 79-page bill, and it does include some $6 billion for Ukraine. That will make it harder to pass the House this week.
* Watch out for the Senate timing. Due to Senate rules, it could take that chamber several days to pass this funding bill. How fast they move will depend on whether all senators — every single one — can agree on speeding things up. Currently, the odds for a sudden rainbow are long. This means the Senate bill may not make it out of the chamber until Friday or Saturday. That could make this quite dramatic because the House still would need to pass that bill in order to avoid a shutdown.

Bottom line: The key decisions are in the House’s hands. The Senate faces significant timing questions. But the House controls the big ball game here on whether there will be a shutdown.

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Photo by Leah Millis/Reuters

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., a central figure ([link removed]) in this ongoing crisis, has two choices and one Hail Mary pass.
* Option No. 1: Senate bill and no shutdown. He can allow a vote on the Senate bill on the House floor. It will likely pass, with some Republicans jumping ship and voting with Democrats. But that is a potential problem for McCarthy. Conservatives have vowed to move against him — to try to oust him — if he lets Democrats control this process.
* McCarthy has a sub-option here. He can dare conservatives to try to boot him. That would lead to even more drama and risk for all sides. For our money, at this time, McCarthy could survive that vote. But, again, it is risky.
* Option No. 2: Keep going with the hard-right plan and shut down the government. McCarthy could keep the House moving as it is now — attempting to pass no less than 11 spending bills (some moving in small groups) in just four days. This is part of what hard-right conservatives have wanted, thinking it could lead to smaller spending bills.
* But. As of publication time, we do not yet know if any of those bills has enough Republican support to pass. And worse, even if they do pass the House, bills of this size usually take weeks or months to move through negotiations with the Senate. This means if McCarthy continues with these long-term bills only, it will mean a shutdown. But it also means fewer risks to his speakership.

* The Hail Mary pass: A Republican short-term funding bill. There is one more option. And it is the one McCarthy is hoping for at this moment. The speaker and his team can try to get nearly all Republicans on board with a short-term spending bill of their own. And today, McCarthy told us and other reporters he will hold a vote on something like that this week. That seems intuitive. But, the problem is, getting the votes has proven to be out of reach, with a solid group of GOP members firmly opposed to short-term funding in general. And if something does pass, again, it is unlikely to get through the Senate.


We will say this: McCarthy has proven that he can win some tough longshots. However, that does usually take time.

And that is not something Congress has a surplus of right now.
More on politics from our coverage:
* Read: The government is headed for a shutdown. The Associated Press has a look at what’s ahead ([link removed]) if government funding expires Oct. 1.
* One Big Question: Is the American public viewing this crisis as a potential Republican shutdown? NPR’s Tamara Keith and Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter weigh in ([link removed]) .
* A Closer Look: Why changes to dress code are a point of contention ([link removed]) on Capitol Hill.
* Perspectives: President Joe Biden made a historic visit ([link removed]) to the United Auto Workers picket line, telling strikers to “stick with it.” Vice President Kamala Harris also reacted to the major labor action ([link removed]) in an exclusive interview with the NewsHour.

VICE PRESIDENT HARRIS SAYS A SHUTDOWN WOULD BE ‘COMPLETELY IRRESPONSIBLE’
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Watch the clip in the player above.
By Tess Conciatori, @tkconch ([link removed])
White House Producer

Matt Loffman, @mattloff ([link removed])
Politics Producer

Matt Rasnic, @Matt_Rasnic ([link removed])
Associate Producer/Editor, Social Media

Vice President Kamala Harris called the potential of a government shutdown “completely irresponsible” during an exclusive interview with PBS NewsHour co-anchor Geoff Bennett at Morehouse College.

Harris’ comment comes as the country barrels toward a shutdown on Sunday if funding bills are not passed. Several hurdles remain as Republicans, who hold a narrow majority in the House, struggle to find consensus on spending bills within their own party.

Harris was in Atlanta to speak with students at the HBCU as part of her ongoing “Fight for Our Freedoms College Tour.”

The full interview with the vice president will air Tuesday night and can later be found on www.pbs.org/newshour/.

ALL EYES ON THE NEXT SUPREME COURT DOCKET
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Photo by Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters
By Marcia Coyle, @MarciaCoyle ([link removed])
U.S. Supreme Court Analyst

How controversial will the next Supreme Court docket be? We’re about to find out. ([link removed])

Supreme Court justices will meet behind closed doors Tuesday for their private “long conference” ahead of the next term, the results of which may offer clues as to how significant the new term will be.

The long conference gets its moniker from the sheer number of petitions for certiorari (review) that accumulated over the justices’ summer break. It is the unofficial kickoff of the new term that traditionally begins on the first Monday of October — this year on Oct. 2.

What’s awaiting the justices in this long conference?
* A huge First Amendment speech battle over Texas and Florida laws restricting the power of social media companies to moderate and curate content on their platforms.
* Washington’s state ban on conversion therapy for minors is also at the center of a petition brought by a family counselor who claims the ban violates his speech and religious rights. Similar laws are in effect in 19 states and the District of Columbia.


Justices will keep adding cases to the new term until about mid-January. The justices currently have agreed to hear arguments in 22 cases — far fewer than the nearly 40 cases they began the term with four years ago.

There likely will be no dearth of potentially high-profile cases waiting in the wings.


#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Ali Schmitz, @SchmitzMedia ([link removed])
Politics Producer

The most recent government shutdown in 2018 was also the longest in U.S. history, clocking in at 34 days. But most government shutdowns are much shorter, lasting between a day or a week.

Our question: When was the shortest shutdown, and about how long did it last?

Send your answers to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: Who was the first U.S. president to speak to the United Nations General Assembly? As a bonus, what was the year?

The answer: Harry Truman ([link removed]) . Officially, the U.S. president spoke at the high-level summit in 1946, the first session of the U.N. General Assembly to New York. But there’s an asterisk by that date. Truman also addressed the General Assembly ([link removed]) the year before, in 1945, but that was before the U.N. was officially the U.N.

Congratulations to our winners: Priscilla Smith and Gail Lelyveld!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.
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