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WHAT IS GOING ON WITH CONGRESS?
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews
Correspondent

We expected to be here. But that does not make it feel any better.  
 
Five days from a federal government shutdown and — unlike in other shutdown countdowns — there is a remarkable lack of clear off-ramps. 
 
Last week, we brought you a detailed look at the complicated dynamics at play. This week, it is go time. Here’s where things stand at this confusing moment.

• Deadline. We are five days from a government shutdown. That would mean most government agencies would close their doors to the public and continue to perform only “essential” functions.
• New moms and young kids. Something new for this shutdown: Funding for the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children program, commonly known as WIC, is running out. That program provides milk and nutrition for low-income women during and after pregnancy, and children five and younger. Without action by Congress, the program could face a shortfall as soon as next week.
• A proposed Senate solution. The U.S. Senate is moving ahead with what is usually the solution to these stand-offs: a “clean” or relatively simple bill extending current government funding for a few weeks to buy Congress more time for a longer deal. That is a “CR” or “continuing resolution.” We just read this 79-page bill, and it does include some $6 billion for Ukraine. That will make it harder to pass the House this week. 
• Watch out for the Senate timing. Due to Senate rules, it could take that chamber several days to pass this funding bill. How fast they move will depend on whether all senators — every single one — can agree on speeding things up. Currently, the odds for a sudden rainbow are long. This means the Senate bill may not make it out of the chamber until Friday or Saturday. That could make this quite dramatic because the House still would need to pass that bill in order to avoid a shutdown.

Bottom line: The key decisions are in the House’s hands. The Senate faces significant timing questions. But the House controls the big ball game here on whether there will be a shutdown.

• Option No. 1: Senate bill and no shutdown. He can allow a vote on the Senate bill on the House floor. It will likely pass, with some Republicans jumping ship and voting with Democrats. But that is a potential problem for McCarthy. Conservatives have vowed to move against him — to try to oust him — if he lets Democrats control this process.
• McCarthy has a sub-option here. He can dare conservatives to try to boot him. That would lead to even more drama and risk for all sides. For our money, at this time, McCarthy could survive that vote. But, again, it is risky.
• Option No. 2: Keep going with the hard-right plan and shut down the government. McCarthy could keep the House moving as it is now — attempting to pass no less than 11 spending bills (some moving in small groups) in just four days. This is part of what hard-right conservatives have wanted, thinking it could lead to smaller spending bills.
• But. As of publication time, we do not yet know if any of those bills has enough Republican support to pass. And worse, even if they do pass the House, bills of this size usually take weeks or months to move through negotiations with the Senate. This means if McCarthy continues with these long-term bills only, it will mean a shutdown. But it also means fewer risks to his speakership.

• The Hail Mary pass: A Republican short-term funding bill. There is one more option. And it is the one McCarthy is hoping for at this moment. The speaker and his team can try to get nearly all Republicans on board with a short-term spending bill of their own. And today, McCarthy told us and other reporters he will hold a vote on something like that this week. That seems intuitive. But, the problem is, getting the votes has proven to be out of reach, with a solid group of GOP members firmly opposed to short-term funding in general. And if something does pass, again, it is unlikely to get through the Senate.