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NEW POLL: National/ACT could form government comfortably 📊💥



This month's Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll sees National and ACT being able to form a Government by a more comfortable margin than last month. Labour continues to languish at a record low while New Zealand First fail to reach the threshold to enter Parliament in this poll. 



Here are the headline results:







Both National and Labour are unchanged on last month at 35% and 27%, respectively. ACT is up 1 point to 14% and the Greens are also up to 1 point to 13%.



















The smaller parties are NZ First on 3.9% (-1.9 points), the Māori Party on 2.9% (+0.4 points), TOP on 2.7% (+1.7 points), New Conservatives on 0.8% (+0.2 points), Vision NZ on 0.5% (-0.6 points), and the Outdoors & Freedom on 0.2%. (-0.3 points).



































































Here is how these results would translate to seats in the Parliament:







National and Labour are both up 1 seat on last month to 45 and 35 seats respectively. ACT is up 2 seats to 19 while the Greens pick up 2 seats for a total of 17. The Māori Party is up 1 seat on last month to 4. NZ First would win no seats in Parliament (-7 seats).



















The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 64 seats is up 3 from last month and would allow National/ACT to form a government. The combined seats for the Centre-Left bloc of 56 is up 4.



Had NZ First hit the five percent threshold, the Centre-Right would still be able to form a government, but only just (61 seats).























Chris Hipkins has a net favourability of +16% (+7 points) while Christopher Luxon has a score -4% (+3 points) and David Seymour is on -13% (-5 points). James Shaw scores of -16%, Rawiri Waititi gets -23% and Winston Peters is on -38%.



















Visit our website for more information, including 'party best at' data, and details of how to get access to the full polling report with the demographic breakdowns. <[link removed]>



















National goes with an underwhelming tax plan 🔵💸



Last election National ran on a policy to recalibrate the income tax system to account for inflation since John Key was Prime Minister. No such luck this time – despite Mr Luxon's repeated comments that the Government has wasted money, the tax relief being offered, only account for inflation (fiscal drag) back to 2021!



First the good. They committed to:



- Scrapping App Tax. Labour slapped GST on all digital purchases even if the supplier is under the $60,000 threshold, pushing up the prices of Uber and Airbnb





- Pausing Chris Hipkins' proposed fuel taxes hikes over the next three years





- Dumping the Auckland Regional Fuel Tax – it hasn't even been used for the road infrastructure which had been promised!





- Giving some of the money raised through the Emissions Trading Scheme carbon credit auctions back to New Zealanders in the form of a carbon dividend by reducing corporate welfare – but it still wants to keep the political slush fund (just make it smaller)





- Dropping Labour’s GST carve out for fruit and vegetable that would increase the profits of supermarkets





- Restoring interest deductibility on mortgage payments for landlords





- Reducing the bright-line test back to two years – this is just a capital gains tax with another name. Rather than tinker with tax, the National Party should have scrapped it entirely and committed to actually fixing the regulatory taxes that continue to cause the lack of supply and unaffordable housing.







The party says its tax proposals will deliver up to $250 more per fortnight for an average-income family with children. It seeks to do this in two ways:



- First, by expanding tax credits, introducing a new childcare tax credit, and increasing Working for Families tax credits. This is a more targeted measure of getting financial support to those on lower incomes compared with other policies such as removing GST of fruit and vegetables; and





- Secondly, by adjusting tax brackets for the last two years of inflation.











A Labour-lite tax policy?



While the headlines would mislead you, National has watered down its previous pledges to adjust tax brackets to account for inflation since Labour took office in 2017. Never mind since when the brackets were last set back in 2010!



Only adjusting tax brackets for the last two years means that those middle earners not benefiting from their expanded tax credits will still be paying much higher tax on average than they would have been had brackets kept pace with inflation.



The party also committed to review tax brackets every three years, but even that is a backdown from their earlier commitment to indexation.



We say tax brackets should be adjusted for inflation automatically every year, not just when the Finance Minister feels like it.



A policy that basically states 'we'll look at tax relief just prior to each election' is really no different to the status quo.



... and National even want to introduce new taxes!



Despite Christopher Luxon having highlighted the shocking 68 per cent increase in Government spending since 2017 and calling out the Government for its excessive spending on consultants and contractors and other wasteful spending, the savings they have found are tiny.



The party has even had to pledge to introduce new revenue-raising mechanisms to fund its plans, including:



- A new tax on foreigners wanting to buy a home in New Zealand. While Christopher Luxon says New Zealand needs foreign direct investment and become more like Ireland, he wants to welcome them with a new tax!





- Removing commercial building depreciation. This is literally a Labour policy (to fund their own proposed GST fruit and vege carveout) which will make it less attractive to improve and develop buildings





- Hiking the charges to the new immigrants that the National Party says they want to attract (in fairness, it is user-pays).







For those wanting to see something more than a "Labour-lite" economic vision to New Zealand "back on track", this is far from encouraging...



You can read National's tax plan here. <[link removed]>



An aspirational target for long-term prosperity 📈💰



ACT announced its productivity policy this week with a bold target for New Zealand to be in the top 10 fastest growing economies in the OECD. 



Under all of the Helen Clark, John Key/Bill English, and Jacinda Ardern/Chris Hipkins governments, New Zealand has continued to become less prosperous and productive than Australia.



Productivity is arguably the most important factor for our long-term prosperity. It is the ultimate driver of higher wages.



ACT's policy would explicitly require the Government to view policy decisions through a productivity lens. They say that it is only with higher incomes and more wealth can New Zealand afford to pay for high-quality public services. ACT reinforced its commitment to meaningful cuts to taxes and (unlike Mr Luxon) wasteful spending.



Learning lessons from the Celtic Tiger



Our friends at the New Zealand Initiative think tank recently led a business delegation to Ireland where they learnt about that country's spectacular success in improving productivity, growing the economy (thanks, in particular to the country’s openness to foreign direct investment) and rocketing up the OECD economic and living standards league tables.



Ireland’s policies saw their per person income grow from 22% lower than New Zealand in 1979 to 78% higher today. The Initiative's report looks at how we could replicate the success in New Zealand. You can read the report here. <[link removed]>



Coming for your digital wallet: Labour looks to introduce one more tax! 💻🤑



Amidst the whirlwind of the election campaign, you may have missed the Government’s announcement that they are introducing yet another new tax – a Digital Service Tax (DST). 



And it isn't just us warning against a DST, even the Government’s own advisors at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade warned the Government that New Zealand exporters could face $90 million in tariffs <[link removed]> if we proceed on our own. When countries such as the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, Austria, Turkey and India considered or indeed did implement a DST, the USA responded with tariffs or threats of tariffs unless the tax was withdrawn.



Another concerning aspect of this tax is that it applies to sales (i.e. revenue) rather than profit. Large tech companies such as Uber run at a loss for many years while they are in the initial stages of growing a company. Taxing them on revenue rather than profit could see tech companies such as Uber and Netflix pass these higher costs onto consumers (or even withdraw from New Zealand completely).



Whatever happened to that "no new taxes" promise?



Drilling into Labour’s free taxpayer-funded dental policy 🆓🦷



From the desperate political bribes file, Labour have dusted off the old taxpayer-funded dental service.



While the policy sounds appealing on the surface, free dental is nothing to smile about. Just last month, Chris Hipkins said that “the system wouldn’t have the capacity to deal with it, and there would likely be significant investment required just in order to build capacity to meet the need for additional dental care” yet now he is willing to drive the Government’s books further into the red for the sake of buying a few votes!



If you think Chippy can deliver what the old-Chippy said would be too hard, we have 100,000 Kiwibuild houses to sell you.



You're humble Taxpayers' Union has a long memory – Labour appear to have forgotten that back in 2020, the Party promised to deliver an additional 20 mobile dental clinics, but only five have been ordered so far – and the first one hasn’t even arrived yet! <[link removed]>So let’s not confuse the promise of more spending with the ability to deliver.



Universal dental is also a costly and unworkable policy that fails to target support at those who need it most. New Zealand only trains 60 dentists a year, and Labour's strict immigration rules make it difficult for more to come in.



It's an F for MFAT: Kiwis Fund Diplomats' Private School Fees 🎒✈️







Last week, Ollie, our Investigations Co-ordinator, brought to light that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) has shelled out a staggering $5 million on private schooling for diplomats' children. What's particularly eye-opening are the amounts spent in countries such as the USA ($817,410.14), Australia ($74,776.98), and the UK ($158,006.02) – nations whose education systems are on par with, if not superior to, New Zealand!



Given the diplomats handsome compensation packages, one can't help but wonder: shouldn't well-compensated diplomats in some of the globe's most developed regions be covering their children’s education expenses?



We say the expenditure comes as a slap in the face to the Kiwi households grappling with financial challenges. You can listen to Ollie on Radio NZ's Morning Report here <[link removed]>, or on Newstalk ZB's Mike Hosking show here. <[link removed]>



Don't like predictable and boring political debates? We've got you covered! 📺🗣️



<[link removed]>



The Taxpayers' Union debate series hosted by The Working Group is in full swing. We held our party debate in Auckland on Tuesday evening that saw Willie Jackson, Paul Goldsmith, David Seymour, Ricardo Menéndez March, John Tamihere, and Jenny Marcroft battle it out over the economy, crime, the Treaty and the environment. 



Kudos to those politicians – in particular Willie Jackson, whom we often spar with – for fronting up and getting stuck into what was the fieriest debate of the election so far. It was great fun although some were perhaps enjoying themselves a bit too much... Willie Jackson got a little too carried away by initially claiming that National and ACT would abolish the minimum wage and the Prime Minister was forced to clarify his comments.



If you weren't able to watch it live, you can catch up on the action here. <[link removed]>



On Tuesday, we head to Kerikeri for our Northland electorate debate. The details to buy tickets are here. <[link removed]>



From gamekeeper to poacher? Casey Costello on why she has left the Taxpayers’ Union board to stand for Parliament🎙️🎧







Casey Costello has been on our board since 2019 (including 8 months as our Acting Chair) but recently stepped down to become a candidate for New Zealand First (the Taxpayers’ Union is, of course, non-partisan and not affiliated to any party).



Jordan asked Casey to join the podcast to discuss her work fighting for her political passions: accountability in government, and equality of civil rights. They also cover what drives Casey, and why she chose NZ First over ACT or National.  You can listen to Casey’s exit interview here.  <[link removed]>



Casey has been a long-time financial supporter of the Union, volunteered many hundreds of hours as a board member, and we thank her for her commitment to the cause.



One more thing 👀



You might have noticed a whole lot of lobby groups and special interests trying to influence the election. Unlike many, the Taxpayers' Union is 100% funded by our supporters and does not take Government/taxpayer funding. To fuel our work, click here to make a confidential donation. <[link removed]>



<[link removed]>



Thank you for your support.



Yours aye,





Callum Purves

Campaigns Manager

New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. 



Media coverage:



Offsetting Behaviour Transport GPS <[link removed]>



Bay of Plenty Times Council debt worries union Tolley refutes figures in report showing only Auckland has a higher net debt  <[link removed]>



Hawke's Bay Today Election 2023: Mark Hutchinson decides he will attend Taxpayers’ Union-organised debate <[link removed]>



Stuff Here's how your home could be taxed even if you're not an investor <[link removed]>



Hawke's Bay Today Election 2023 Napier: Poll suggests National’s Katie Nimon has early lead <[link removed]> <[link removed]>The Daily Blog Taxpayers’ Union Napier Election debate hosted by The Working Group NOW WITH LABOUR CANDIDATE Mark Hutchinson <[link removed]>



Hawke's Bay AppNational's Katie Nimon leading in race for Napier Seat, according to new poll <[link removed]>



Newstalk ZB The Huddle: How low can Labour go before October? <[link removed]>

<[link removed]>The Post Public Service Watch: Rates dissatisfaction a growing storm <[link removed]>



Stuff National leads polling in bellwether Napier, but 23 per cent of voters undecided <[link removed]>



Interest.co.nz Cyclone & flood damaged homes exempt from bright-line test in voluntary buyout <[link removed]>



Newstalk ZB The Huddle: Does David Seymour need to apologise? <[link removed]> (00:38) <[link removed]>RNZMFAT spends $5 million on sending diplomat's children to private schools <[link removed]>



NewstalkZBOliver Bryan: Taxpayers' Union reveals $5m of taxpayer dollars spent on private schooling for diplomats' children overseas <[link removed]>



The PlatformTaxpayers Union's Connor Molloy on extravagant public service -"Culture of waste" <[link removed]> <[link removed]>NBR Air NZ revises capital plan, pays first dividend since 2019 <[link removed]>



Waikato Times Thames joins Innovating Streets project flops <[link removed]>



The Press Cantabrians to be asked for stadium funding, may face levy on tickets <[link removed]>



Chris Lynch Bill lowering voting age to 16 triggers alarm for Taxpayers' Union <[link removed]> <[link removed]>Newstalk ZBMidday Edition: 29 August 2023 <[link removed]>



The Daily Blog Taxpayers’ Union Ilam Election debate hosted by The Working Group <[link removed]> <[link removed]>BusinessDeskIlam poll shows Raf Manji and TOP victory 'possible' but tough <[link removed]>



NZ Herald Election 2023: National way ahead in Ilam, denting TOP’s chances of entering Parliament <[link removed]>Interest.co.nz A Taxpayers’ Union – Curia poll shows The Opportunities Party leader Raf Manji trailing behind National in the Ilam electorate <[link removed]>NewshubThe Opportunities Party polling third in Christchurch's Ilam, cutting off path to Parliament <[link removed]>



RNZ Christchurch's Ilam electorate swings back to National, according to latest poll <[link removed]>



Newstalk ZB The Huddle: What can we expect from National's tax policy? <[link removed]>



The PressIlam's candidates struggle to cut through with voters <[link removed]> <[link removed]>Interest.co.nzReaction pours in to the National Party tax plan, much of it critical but some of it in support <[link removed]>



Newshub National's tax policy unveiled: The key points as other parties go on attack <[link removed]>



RNZ The Panel with Julie Woods and Nick Leggett (Part 2) – Voting Age <[link removed]>



The Press When mention of a crisis is booed, we have a problem <[link removed]>RNZCTU taks out full page attack ad on National in NZ Herald <[link removed]>



Otago Daily Times Nats call out Labour over 'most negative' campaign <[link removed]>



Otago Daily Times Hipkins says National 'thin-skinned' over attack advert <[link removed]>



Newshub Election 2023: Chris Hipkins calls National 'thin-skinned' for getting offended by union ads, shows examples of attacks on him <[link removed]>



The Spinoff Is the CTU running psyops for the NationalParty? <[link removed]>



Interest.co.nz National accuses rival Labour of mean spirited attacks over union billboard showing a scowling picture of Christopher Luxon <[link removed]>



RNZ The Panel with Moata Tamaira and Mark Knoff-Thomas (Part 1) – Adverts <[link removed]>RNZNational cries foul over new union attack ad against Chris Luxon <[link removed]>Newstalk ZB'They wouldn't be alone': Finance Minister defends CTU attack ad targeting opposition <[link removed]>



RNZ National decries CTU attack ads targeting Christopher Luxon <[link removed]>Newstalk ZBThe Front Bench: Attack ads already being published- could this be the most negative campaign yet? <[link removed]>NZ HeraldChris Hipkins plays down unions advert attacking Christopher Luxon, labels National ‘thin-skinned’ <[link removed]>The Daily BlogTaxpayers’ Union Party Election debate hosted by The Working Group <[link removed]>

NZ HeraldElection 2023: Co-governance, Treaty, Māori health, crime and cost of living topics for tonight’s debate <[link removed]>



Waatea News CTU attack ads get under National skin <[link removed]>NZ HeraldElection 2023: Audrey Young - Christopher Luxon attack advertisement a timely distraction for National <[link removed]>NZ HeraldElection 2023: Council of Trade Unions locks building and calls police after anti-Luxon ad generates ‘concerning’ flak <[link removed]>NZ HeraldTaxpayers' Union debate <[link removed]>Newstalk ZB Jordan Williams: Taxpayers' Union executive director supports the creation of an Independent Costings Watchdog <[link removed]>



Newshub Election 2023: Willie Jackson, David Seymour trade barbs over justice policies <[link removed]>Gisborne HeraldElection campaign piquing interest <[link removed]>NBR Aviation sector calls out for collaboration on decarbonisation <[link removed]>



Newshub Election 2023: Willie Jackson clarifies claim ACT, Nats would lower minimum wage made during boisterous election debate <[link removed]>NewsroomLoudest voices compete with the Chardonnay <[link removed]>Pacific News NetworkNews 06 September 2023 – Taxpayers' Union Debate 1 <[link removed]>



Waatea News Vaughan Winiata / Social Provocatuer – Taxpayers' Union Debate <[link removed]>Waatea NewsWillie Jackson | Minister of Maori Development – Taxpayers' Union Debate <[link removed]>



Newshub Election 2023: Labour's Chris Hipkins says Willie Jackson made incorrect claim about National, ACT 'in heat of moment' <[link removed]>1NewsHipkins defends MP's 'incorrect' minimum wage comments <[link removed]>



BusinessDesk QLDC awards CEO with 8% salary boost, while rates rocket <[link removed]>



Waatea News Seymour’s treaty act would overturn law <[link removed]>RNZ Hipkins to have a word with MPs after incorrect statements about National <[link removed]>



Waatea News 6th Sept 2023 English News Bulletin 3:30pm – Taxpayers' Union Debate <[link removed]>



Newstalk ZB Willie Jackson: Labour Minister maintains he's not deliberately disseminating misinformation after last night's debate <[link removed]>



Pacific News Network News 06 September 2023 – Taxpayers' Union Debate 2 <[link removed]>



Te Karere TVNZ Willie Jackson addresses “most dangerous man in NZ” comments <[link removed]>NewsroomReserve Bank chair’s ‘totally inappropriate’ work with National Party <[link removed]>



Offsetting Behaviour Debating tax <[link removed]>



CarbonNews Mixed reactions to Nats EV charger proposal <[link removed]>Newstalk ZBBeehive Buzz: Election 2023, attack ads and Trade Dispute with Canada <[link removed]>



The Spinoff Everyone running in Ilam needs to win <[link removed]>







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New Zealand Taxpayers' Union Inc. - 117 Lambton Quay, Level 4, Wellington 6011, New Zealand

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