It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy.

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Photo by Joshua Lott/The Washington Post via Getty Images

It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy. We think of it as a mini-magazine in your inbox.

WHERE IS THE 2024 GOP RACE NOW?
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent

This is something surprising.

Against expectations, we want to talk about the same topic for two weeks in a row — the Republican race for president.

Often, the early days of a campaign are dismissed — wisely — as too soon to discuss a race. But in some cases, early days may start to define a race. And that could be what we have here.

With a full month until the next debate, last week’s face-off ([link removed]) may be a critical baseline, affecting voters’ ideas of the tone, perceived strengths, possible weaknesses and momentum of the many Republican candidates ([link removed]) on stage.

So let’s talk about what we’ve learned.

There could be real movement among voters

We’re careful when talking about polls in Here’s the Deal. We think they can be overused. Some see polls as voter maps, but we believe they are better understood as weathervanes ([link removed]) — offering insight into tricky trends and patterns.

Let’s consider two national polls of note, which were conducted after the first Republican debate: one from Morning Consult ([link removed]) , out today; and one from Emerson College ([link removed]) , out yesterday.

Some key findings:
* Haley is up. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is up in both polls, in a bold-print way. Her jump in the Emerson poll is the most of any candidate, from 2 percent of support before the debate to 7 percent after. In Morning Consult, she saw a smaller bump, but still was up somewhat from 3 percent to 5 percent.
* Pence too. The former vice president is also at single digits, but saw bumps in both polls to land at 7 percent in one and 6 percent in the other. Think of him and Haley as both now on the same upwardly mobile trajectory.
* DeSantis did not go down, but he did not close the gap with Donald Trump. In the Emerson poll, the Florida governor did go up two points following the debate. That is statistically within the margin of error, so it could mean no change. The Morning Consult poll found his support at a similar level, at 14 percent. Those numbers are not drops, but the fact remains that he needs to be building support. Fast. He is still some 30 to 40 points behind Trump, and his only shot is if the former president unexpectedly leaves the race.
* And Ramaswamy is within reach of second place. Emerson’s poll has DeSantis at 12 percent support, but Ramaswamy within the margin of error of him, at 9 percent. Again, we don’t want just a single poll, we want a trend. And Morning Consult backs this up. Their poll has it: DeSantis, 14; Ramaswamy, 10.


The not-Trump contest

These polling numbers mean we may soon have a real race for the nominee-if-it’s-not-Trump spot. It is not certain. But it is now possible.

That matters for two reasons. First, while Trump still has a monumental lead in the Republican race, we are in a political cycle with a large number and unprecedented kinds of unknowns. How will the upcoming trials ([link removed]) affect the former president with voters? Will he continue to make fewer public appearances, something his defense attorneys no doubt endorse?
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Watch the segment in the player above.
Second, as we wrote last week, this is also a contest for 2028 and the future leadership of the Republican Party. It may seem hard to believe sometimes, but Trump will not be on the ballot forever. All of the Republicans running against him know this and are also planting flags for future elections.

Meanwhile, DeSantis’ status as the primary Trump alternative is starting to melt like a smoothie on a stick ([link removed]) at the Iowa State Fair. And his opponents are harboring hope: Iowa and New Hampshire both like to reward unexpected, hard-working candidates like Ramaswamy, Haley and Pence.

About Vivek Ramaswamy

The 38-year-old is, unquestionably, having a moment right now ([link removed]) . But there is a question about how he handles the move from interesting maverick to serious contender.

An example: Ramaswamy’s 17-minute appearance on “Meet the Press ([link removed]) ” this past Sunday. His response about Jan. 6 — seeming to say he would have pushed through election reform before certifying results — was confusing and brought criticism ([link removed]) .

And today, media outlets are pointing ([link removed]) to a clip of Ramaswamy as a 18-year-old asking then-candidate Al Sharpton why he should vote for someone with the least experience. (Ramaswamy was the candidate with the least political experience on stage last week.) Ramaswamy responded on X ([link removed]) , formerly known as Twitter, saying, “it’s funny how the tables have turned.”

A small dip for Trump?

This we have less confidence in as it is only in one poll.

But Emerson found that support for the former president dropped 6 points, from 56 percent to 50. It is hard to say if this is statistically significant yet. BUT, we raise it as we suspect it may be personally significant to Trump, who operates on the theory that time in front of the cameras is time well spent.

He missed the debate, and it is not yet clear if he will attend any. But should this trend continue, pressure on him to return (whether from himself or others) could mount.

Not so “anti-woke”?

We must tip our hat to Tom Barton of The Gazette ([link removed]) in Des Moines for this take, which he laid out in the podcast “On Iowa Politics ([link removed]) .” (By the way, we recommend that podcast to 2024 nerds.)

Where was all the “anti-woke” talk? After weeks of steady, rhetorical drumbeats against “woke” ideology, especially from DeSantis and Ramaswamy, the word came up just once at last week’s debate. DeSantis has made “anti-woke” part of his brand, but ignored the phrase altogether.

Instead it was Haley, not either of the two so-called anti-woke crusaders, who raised it. (Once ([link removed]) .)

Where are we now?

At the moment, former President Trump still holds a jaw-dropping lead over his Republican rivals. That is nationally and also in the states. (A poll out today from The Atlanta Journal-Constitution ([link removed]) found he is ahead of DeSantis in Georgia by 40+ points after being indicted there.) That would not be surprising for any former president. Though, of course, it is surprising for a politician facing 91 felony counts ([link removed]) . It is Trump. Dynamics surrounding him are unique.

And thus, we stick with essentially what we said on the PBS NewsHour last week ([link removed]) : Right now, the only Republican threat to Trump is Trump himself.
More on politics from our coverage:
* Watch: A federal judge set a trial date ([link removed]) for Trump’s federal election interference case. The very next day, if that March 4 date holds, is Super Tuesday.
* One Big Question: Will the trial have any impact on that day? NPR’s Tamara Keith and Errin Haines of The 19th News weigh in ([link removed]) .
* A Closer Look: A new ban on gender-affirming care took effect in Missouri ([link removed]) this week. What led to this law being passed?
* Perspectives: Oklahoma's superintendent wants the state to take over Tulsa schools. Parents say he’s playing politics ([link removed]) .

#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Kyle Midura, @KyleMidura ([link removed])
Politics Producer

A bit of a humble brag trivia today.

PBS broadcasters have moderated 16 presidential debates since they began in 1960, more than any other news outlet. The late Jim Lehrer, PBS NewsHour co-founder, also moderated 12 of them, more than anyone else.

Our question: Who is the only other person to moderate more than two presidential or vice presidential debates? (Bonus points if you can name all the years they did so.)

Send your answers to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: How many of the past six presidential elections have been decided by less than a percentage point in Wisconsin?

The answer: Four ([link removed].) . The 2020, 2016, 2004 and 2000 presidential elections. Trump, who carried the state by less than one percentage point in 2016, also lost by a similar margin in the 2020 contest.

Congratulations to our winners: Bob Schmid and Tom Holston!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.
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