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WHERE IS THE 2024 GOP RACE NOW?
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews
Correspondent
 
This is something surprising.
 
Against expectations, we want to talk about the same topic for two weeks in a row — the Republican race for president. 
 
Often, the early days of a campaign are dismissed — wisely — as too soon to discuss a race. But in some cases, early days may start to define a race. And that could be what we have here.
 
With a full month until the next debate, last week’s face-off may be a critical baseline, affecting voters’ ideas of the tone, perceived strengths, possible weaknesses and momentum of the many Republican candidates on stage.
 
So let’s talk about what we’ve learned.
 
There could be real movement among voters
 
We’re careful when talking about polls in Here’s the Deal. We think they can be overused. Some see polls as voter maps, but we believe they are better understood as weathervanes — offering insight into tricky trends and patterns.
 
Let’s consider two national polls of note, which were conducted after the first Republican debate: one from Morning Consult, out today; and one from Emerson College, out yesterday.  
 
Some key findings:

• Haley is up. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is up in both polls, in a bold-print way. Her jump in the Emerson poll is the most of any candidate, from 2 percent of support before the debate to 7 percent after. In Morning Consult, she saw a smaller bump, but still was up somewhat from 3 percent to 5 percent.
• Pence too. The former vice president is also at single digits, but saw bumps in both polls to land at 7 percent in one and 6 percent in the other. Think of him and Haley as both now on the same upwardly mobile trajectory.
• DeSantis did not go down, but he did not close the gap with Donald Trump. In the Emerson poll, the Florida governor did go up two points following the debate. That is statistically within the margin of error, so it could mean no change. The Morning Consult poll found his support at a similar level, at 14 percent. Those numbers are not drops, but the fact remains that he needs to be building support. Fast. He is still some 30 to 40 points behind Trump, and his only shot is if the former president unexpectedly leaves the race. 
• And Ramaswamy is within reach of second place. Emerson’s poll has DeSantis at 12 percent support, but Ramaswamy within the margin of error of him, at 9 percent. Again, we don’t want just a single poll, we want a trend. And Morning Consult backs this up. Their poll has it: DeSantis, 14; Ramaswamy, 10. 

 
The not-Trump contest
 
These polling numbers mean we may soon have a real race for the nominee-if-it’s-not-Trump spot. It is not certain. But it is now possible.

That matters for two reasons. First, while Trump still has a monumental lead in the Republican race, we are in a political cycle with a large number and unprecedented kinds of unknowns. How will the upcoming trials affect the former president with voters? Will he continue to make fewer public appearances, something his defense attorneys no doubt endorse?