New internal polling of California’s 47th District released last week by
Democrat David Min’s campaign, which excluded Max Ukropina and only
included Scott Baugh, confirms our campaign’s assessment of the race and of
Republicans’ best path to victory next year.

The sad conclusion is that last year’s bruising and expensive race against
Katie Porter has left Scott Baugh in a damaged and defensive position as he
runs for Congress again, jeopardizing Republicans’ chances of winning the
47th District in 2024 if he were to be the nominee.

We see an alarming trend among the data that we feel duty-bound to share
with our core supporters and anyone hoping for a Republican win in the 47th
District next year, especially with the critical Q2 fundraising deadline
just days away.

There is a reason Dave Min chose to exclude Max and only include Baugh.
Three data points in particular are concerning:


-

Scott Baugh’s favorability among district voters is underwater by 11
points, a sign that the Democrats’ aggressive bombardment of negative
ads last year took a serious and persisting toll on Baugh’s image and put
him in a deep hole he will need to heavily spend his way out of.

-

Only 30% of voters in the district say they find Baugh’s biography
compelling, indicating Baugh will struggle to excite Republican and
independent voters, particularly low-turnout voters who Republicans need to
win.

-

65% of voters say they find negative xxxxxxrmation about Baugh a
“convincing” reason to vote against him, including nearly half (49%) who
say they find it “very convincing,” which means Democrats can expect to
deploy the same attacks from last time with the same devastating effects.


Most alarmingly, the poll finds that David Min would defeat Baugh by seven
points if the Democrats run the same playbook that they did last time. The
Democrats and their well-funded allies already know how to defeat Baugh -
the mailers, the TV ad scripts, and the message-tested attacks - and with
millions of dollars at their disposal they will clearly do it again.

It may be unfair, but the reality is that Republicans will have to spend a
considerable amount of resources just to dig ourselves out of the hole the
Democrats dug for us last year, let alone go on offense against the
Democrats, if Scott Baugh is the nominee.

Fortunately, Republicans have a new choice that the Democrats are doing
everything they can to avoid. That choice is Max Ukropina, a young,
energetic, fresh conservative voice. He is a local businessman with deep
connections to the 47th District.

Importantly, the Democrats will not be able to run the same playbook
against Max Ukropina as they could against Scott Baugh.

Our campaign’s message is already resonating with voters and donors in the
district who understand that a new strategy and fresh approach is needed to
win the 47th District in 2024.

To anyone who wants to see a Republican victory on election night 2024, we
urge you to give support and DONATE HERE
<[link removed]>.

Sincerely,

The Team at Max Ukropina for Congress