New internal polling of California’s 47th District released last week by Democrat David Min’s campaign, which excluded Max Ukropina and only included Scott Baugh, confirms our campaign’s assessment of the race and of Republicans’ best path to victory next year.
The sad conclusion is that last year’s bruising and expensive race against Katie Porter has left Scott Baugh in a damaged and defensive position as he runs for Congress again, jeopardizing Republicans’ chances of winning the 47th District in 2024 if he were to be the nominee.
We see an alarming trend among the data that we feel duty-bound to share with our core supporters and anyone hoping for a Republican win in the 47th District next year, especially with the critical Q2 fundraising deadline just days away.
There is a reason Dave Min chose to exclude Max and only include Baugh. Three data points in particular are concerning:
Scott Baugh’s favorability among district voters is underwater by 11 points, a sign that the Democrats’ aggressive bombardment of negative ads last year took a serious and persisting toll on Baugh’s image and put him in a deep hole he will need to heavily spend his way out of.
Only 30% of voters in the district say they find Baugh’s biography compelling, indicating Baugh will struggle to excite Republican and independent voters, particularly low-turnout voters who Republicans need to win.
65% of voters say they find negative xxxxxxrmation about Baugh a “convincing” reason to vote against him, including nearly half (49%) who say they find it “very convincing,” which means Democrats can expect to deploy the same attacks from last time with the same devastating effects.
Most alarmingly, the poll finds that David Min would defeat Baugh by seven points if the Democrats run the same playbook that they did last time. The Democrats and their well-funded allies already know how to defeat Baugh - the mailers, the TV ad scripts, and the message-tested attacks - and with millions of dollars at their disposal they will clearly do it again.
It may be unfair, but the reality is that Republicans will have to spend a considerable amount of resources just to dig ourselves out of the hole the Democrats dug for us last year, let alone go on offense against the Democrats, if Scott Baugh is the nominee.
Fortunately, Republicans have a new choice that the Democrats are doing everything they can to avoid. That choice is Max Ukropina, a young, energetic, fresh conservative voice. He is a local businessman with deep connections to the 47th District.
Importantly, the Democrats will not be able to run the same playbook against Max Ukropina as they could against Scott Baugh.
Our campaign’s message is already resonating with voters and donors in the district who understand that a new strategy and fresh approach is needed to win the 47th District in 2024.
To anyone who wants to see a Republican victory on election night 2024, we urge you to give support and DONATE HERE.
Sincerely,
The Team at Max Ukropina for Congress