Daily News Brief

March 21, 2023

Top of the Agenda

Global average temperatures will rise to catastrophic levels (NYT) by the mid-2030s unless there is an immediate shift away from fossil fuels, a new UN report on climate change said. The document summarizes previous reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and warns that global warming is likely to exceed the critical threshold of 1.5°C (2.7°F) above preindustrial levels within the next decade. Nearly every country agreed to prevent that outcome under the 2015 Paris Agreement.

The report says governments and companies need to at least triple the roughly $600 billion they currently spend on clean energy each year in order to limit warming to 1.5°C or 2°C (3.6°F). Oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia lobbied for the report to emphasize carbon-capture technology as a solution, but the report’s final wording said that method brings “feasibility and sustainability concerns” (FT). The report will serve as the basis for UN climate talks in the United Arab Emirates in December.

Analysis

“Increasingly clear that progress vs climate change will come not from diplomacy, as most govts value eco performance & short term over all else, but in innovation (batteries, carbon capture, nuclear, renewables, etc), sharing arrangements, & fuel shifting,” CFR President Richard Haass tweets.

“Many scientists have pointed out that surpassing the 1.5 degree threshold will not mean humanity is doomed. But every fraction of a degree of additional warming is expected to increase the severity of dangers that people around the world face, such as water scarcity, malnutrition and deadly heat waves,” the New York Times’ Brad Plumer writes.

This video shows what could happen if the world reaches 1.5°C of warming.

Pacific Rim

Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio is visiting (AFP) Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv today, making him the first Japanese premier to visit a war zone since World War II and the last leader of a Group of Seven (G7) country to meet Zelenskyy in Kyiv.

China/New Zealand: New Zealand’s foreign minister, Nanaia Mahuta, is visiting her counterpart (Radio New Zealand) in Beijing today to discuss cooperation on climate action, trade, and other issues.

South and Central Asia

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a $3 billion rescue loan (NYT) for Sri Lanka after months of negotiations. Sri Lanka had already secured bilateral debt-restructuring agreements from China, India, and Japan.  

Pakistan: Ten million people in Pakistan live in areas that lack access to safe drinking water (AP) because of widespread floods last summer, the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) said.

Middle East and North Africa

The 2005 order called for the evacuation (Reuters) of four Jewish settlements in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. Residents will need the Israeli military’s approval to return to the settlements, which most countries consider illegal under international law.

Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia released jailed U.S.-Saudi dual citizen (BBC) Saad Ibrahim Almadi, who was detained for more than a year over tweets that criticized the Saudi government, Almadi’s son said. 

Sub-Saharan Africa

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken accused (CNN) the allied Ethiopian and Eritrean militaries and fighters from Ethiopia’s Tigray and Amhara regions of committing murder, rape, and ethnic cleansing, among other crimes. He announced the allegations during the launch of the State Department’s annual human rights report.

Niger: U.S. aid worker Jeffery Woodke and French journalist Olivier Dubois were freed in Niger (The Guardian) after being held hostage for years by extremists in Africa’s Sahel region. Woodke was abducted in Niger in 2016 and Dubois in Mali in 2021.   

Europe

French President Emmanuel Macron narrowly survived (BBC) two votes that could have taken down his government and repealed the pension reform he approved by presidential order last week. Afterward, police in Paris arrested 101 people during clashes with anti-reform demonstrators.

UK: An independent government review of London’s police force, the largest in the United Kingdom (UK), determined (AFP) that the force is institutionally racist, misogynistic, and homophobic. The city’s mayor said he expects reforms recommended by the review will be implemented quickly. If they fail, the force could be broken up.

Americas

Tareck El Aissami’s resignation (FT) comes days after police arrested multiple officials linked to state oil company Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA). The rare anticorruption probe comes ahead of elections set to take place next year.

This Backgrounder looks at Venezuela’s role as a petrostate.

Dominican Republic: Police officers arrested nineteen people (AP), including a former presidential candidate, as part of a massive anticorruption probe.

United States

The bill to repeal the authorizations for the Gulf and Iraq Wars is backed mostly by Democrats but includes nearly twelve Republican cosponsors (NPR). It is expected to pass the Senate. While the repeal would be largely symbolic, the bill’s supporters say it is needed for Congress to reassert its authority to declare and end wars.

CFR’s Steven A. Cook assesses Iraq’s shaky democracy twenty years after the U.S. invasion.

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