Jay Powell has had great
and pernicious influence in persuading his colleagues to support his perverse tight-money policy. But Powell’s Achilles’ heel turns out to be his indulgent stance on regulatory policy, and the connection between the two Fed realms. If Powell was going to sharply and repeatedly hike interest rates, he needed to pay very close attention to how this would affect bank balance sheets. Not only did he fail to do that; he was a prime mover behind the serial regulatory weakenings that allowed fast-growing regional banks like Silicon Valley Bank to speculate themselves into deep
trouble. Now the Fed is in high damage control mode—control of the damage to the nation’s banking system and to Powell’s own rapidly declining reputation and influence in his own house. Three of the six current Fed governors are now Democrats appointed by President Biden—Michael Barr, the vice chair for supervision; Lisa Cook; and Philip Jefferson. Powell is desperately trying to keep control of the Fed’s internal investigation, to whitewash the Fed’s blunders and his own role. The other members of the Fed board should be less concerned about helping to save Powell’s neck and more about redeeming a badly failed institution. When the sainted Fed chair Paul Volcker lost his working majority on the Fed Board of Governors in 1987, he resigned, at 59, and with several years to go in
his term. It could happen to Powell. Paradoxically, if Biden had not moved Fed governor Lael Brainard to the White House as director of the National Economic Council, that would have left one more Fed governor who is very much a regulatory hawk. Brainard opposed the Trump legislation to weaken standards for midsized banks like SVB that Powell not only supported but went beyond. But because of the current banking crisis, we are probably better off having Brainard at the White House as a senior counterweight to Powell. Unless the president had a crystal ball, this was not likely on Biden’s mind when he made the appointment, but it was providential.
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