For
their parts, both Xi and Putin have erected autocracies so complete that they can get their parliaments to ratify their every whim. The French system doesn’t give a president that power—parliaments are elected freely and independently of the president—but it does allow that president to override the parliament when he so chooses. Since 1958, French presidents have generally been discreet about doing that, but today marked a reversion to the days of the Louises. Or at least, to Louis XIV. Does it also portend a reversion to Louis XVI (the one who was beheaded in the
Revolution)? Goldhammer doesn’t think so. The parliamentary wing of Macron’s government will face a vote of confidence in the next several days, but losing that vote would require a number of defections from other center-right parties. Instead, Goldhammer thinks that Macron might himself dismiss his prime minister and her Cabinet before then, thereby squashing any parliamentary move to bring them down, a move that would also automatically undo the change to the retirement age. The king and his social-contract rewrite would thereby remain intact (Macron isn’t term-limited out until 2027), but
there would be new faces, and the same politics, among his courtiers at his neo-Versailles. Goldhammer is pessimistic that the parties of the left, which remain badly divided both internally and from one another, can realize any political gains from what should be the golden opportunity that Macron’s shock to the system affords them. He thinks it more likely that Le Pen’s right-wing nationalist party, which, like the left, opposed the change to the retirement age, may benefit. Macron’s campaign to change the law, however, has produced a different kind of left unity: unity on the streets.
France’s long fissiparous union movement, which has been divided ideologically for more than a century, has come together in recent months to coordinate strikes and massive demonstrations, which are sure to swell in view of today’s law-by-fiat. Goldhammer notes that a 1995 attempt to raise the retirement age passed the legislature, but in the face of ensuing demonstrations that all but shut down the economy, the government never promulgated the new law. It’s not at all clear what level of social disruption would compel Macron to back off what is the linchpin of his domestic agenda. What is
clear, Goldhammer said, is that "France is now in for four years of a completely crippled president."
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