Dear John,

The federal government has committed to gradually reducing federal debt as a share of the national economy over the medium term.

But a new study published by the Fraser Institute today finds that with current fiscal policies, the federal government faces between a 30% and 53% chance of failing to meet this core fiscal goal.

When you add in the possibility of recessions to economic forecasts – which are excluded from government projections – there is a 30% chance that the federal debt to GDP ratio will increase over a 10-year time period, and a 53% chance of an increase over a 20-year time horizon.

Read the full study here, and be sure to share this information with your friends and colleagues..

Sincerely,

Niels Veldhuis
President
The Fraser Institute