A crackdown on irregular migration in Tunisia has prompting heightened anxiety among many Black Africans in the country and sparked a wave of political protest. President Kais Saied outraged domestic critics and international organizations when he claimed last month that immigration from sub-Saharan Africa was part of a “criminal plan” to “change the demographic composition of Tunisia" and “consider Tunisia a purely African country that has no affiliation to the Arab and Islamic nations." Since then, migrants have reported being attacked by mobs, evicted from their homes, and arrested by authorities. Many have fled Tunisia, and multiple countries have stepped in to airlift their nationals out. Recent weeks have seen rising protests and international condemnation, punctuated by detentions of rival leaders. The comments and their aftermath have marked the latest stage of Saied’s authoritarian turn. Two years ago the president, who took office in 2019, fired the prime minister, froze parliament, and began down a path of eroding the democratic gains made since Tunisia became the launchpad of the Arab Spring a decade earlier. According to government figures, about 21,500 sub-Saharan Africans live in Tunisia, an increase from 7,200 in 2014. Saied’s rhetoric echoes the “great replacement” theory that has risen in popularity among the far right in Europe and North America, contending that political leaders are intentionally encouraging the arrival of non-White immigrants in order to change countries’ racial and ethnic makeup (colleague Natalia Banulescu-Bogdan discussed this issue with researcher Justin Gest on a recent episode of MPI’s World of Migration podcast). The Saied outburst underscores the country’s uneasy relationship with sub-Saharan migrants, many of whom intend merely to pass through Tunisia en route to Europe. The European Union has sometimes taken a transactional approach to irregular migration from Tunisia, and the country has often cooperated to advance EU ambitions. But in many ways, Saied’s approach might best be considered an attempt at deflection. In recent months, Tunisia’s economy has descended into a tailspin, and grocery shelves have often been empty of staples such as milk and sugar. Paltry turnout for parliamentary elections in January was widely interpreted as a sign of disinterest in the president’s ambitions. Meanwhile, tens of thousands of Tunisians left last year, many heading across the Mediterranean to Europe, and a long-running brain drain is tied to the political instability. It remains unclear whether the recent unrest marks a turning point either for Saied or the country. But Saied’s behavior is part of a pattern. When backed into a corner, flailing leaders have time and again looked for scapegoats. Often, migrants become easy targets. Best regards, Julian Hattem
Editor, Migration Information Source
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