Indivisibles,

Ezra here. What a week! We started with a pathetic showing of right-wing wackjobs at CPAC, then I joined Rachel Maddow on Monday for a chat, and we launched the new Unrepresentatives campaign focusing on the 18 MAGA enablers in the House. Frankly, you’ve probably heard too much from me this week, but let’s soldier on together with this month’s newsletter. As always, no fundraising here -- this newsletter is a community building space. I want to hear from you, and hopefully I have something of value to share, if only the most recent adorable picture of our 2-year-old Zeke (at the end).

For this newsletter I want to build on my chat with Rachel. Specifically, I want to talk about a MAGA threat that’s received little attention but could soon blow up spectacularly if we don’t defuse it first.

The near-term catastrophe MAGA is courting

Pour a stiff drink and then picture it with me: A massive stock market crash. Forced cuts to Social Security, Medicare, and veterans' benefits. Millions of jobs evaporate. Unemployment doubles. Already-high interest rates for credit cards, car loans, and mortgages skyrocket to previously-unfathomable heights. A prolonged, national recession follows.

I’m not fear-mongering about a second Trump term here. What I’m describing reflects a sober report that Moody’s Analytics released just this month on the threat of government default -- an outcome described as “cataclysmic.” This could happen soon -- very soon. According to the Treasury Department, the US will go into default in early June unless Congress acts. That congressional act is known as “raising the debt ceiling,” but you won’t catch me using that phrase for reasons I’ll explain a bit further down.

Obviously America pays its debts, right? So what’s the problem? Well, Kevin McCarthy’s House is the problem. They’re refusing to carry out the most basic function of their job, courting a disaster that even conservative economists describe as “a self-inflicted wound no one needs.”

National default has never happened in this country, but we’re living in unprecedented times. The MAGA-dominated House majority is both extreme and dysfunctional, so the threat of default is real. Their official position right now is they’ll drive the country off the default cliff unless Democrats give in to as-of-yet unstated demands. Cuts to Social Security and Medicare? Abolishing the Department of Education? Maybe. They won’t say yet. But they’ve taken the credit of the United States hostage, and they’re not signaling any willingness to give it up.

Our opponents come in two flavors: the flashy fanatics and the irresponsible cynics. The House Majority is not a monolith. The reason this nightmare default scenario is a realistic possibility is because McCarthy’s majority is constructed of two types of members: MAGA fanatics who don’t care about the consequences and/or believe that default benefits them politically, and irresponsible cynics who believe that they can avoid owning any of the political fallout in the event of catastrophe. Both groups are currently aligned on a course of brinkmanship that, if maintained, will have devastating consequences for our economy. 

We won’t win this fight by convincing fanatics like Marjorie Taylor Greene to embrace fiscal sanity. They’re not moveable. But the good news is we don’t need to move them to win. We just need to scare a few cynics over to our side.

The House majority is miniscule, which means if just five GOP representatives shift over to our side, that’s enough to avert a default. This is the connection to the new Unrepresenatives campaign I talked to Rachel about on Monday. There are 18 GOP members representing districts Biden won in 2020. Indivisible’s National Political Director Dani Negrete calls these 18, “The Achilles' heel of the MAGA Majority.” That’s exactly right -- they’re the weak link. They’re worried about reelection and vulnerable to pressure. If we apply pressure effectively, make them understand their political careers will be over if they side with MAGA, and peel just a third of them away from McCarthy and Marjorie Taylor Greene -- that’s enough to avert default. 

But that’s a big if, because it depends on public attention and pressure, and we don’t have much of that yet.

The public doesn’t understand the stakes of this fight…yet. 

Needless to say, intentionally causing a devastating national recession is bonkers, which is why the vast majority of Americans oppose going into default (we’ve got the polling data). But the truth is, the vast majority of Americans also aren’t paying attention to the issue at all. Reasonably, most peoples’ eyes glaze over when they hear the term “debt ceiling” or “default.” It doesn’t produce a visceral response like Trump coming after your health care or putting kids in cages. The real-world consequences of default just don’t feel…real. And anyway, Congress has always sorted this out before -- why waste time worrying about it? 

The GOP is capitalizing on this general knowledge and attention gap by spreading disinformation and framing the issue in propagandistic terms. Rather than talk about the threats of default, the GOP tries to change the subject to other stuff -- government spending, woke bureaucrats, crime -- whatever. The House GOP knows they’ll lose this fight if it’s about the consequences of default or their attempts to cut Social Security and Medicare, so they’re trying to distract. It’s a smart strategy -- and it might work for them.

Messaging and tactical guidance for the movement

Our success depends on turning the public attention to the threat MAGA poses here before it’s too late to move votes. This is why the NY-17 action that Rachel covered last Monday is so instructive. Local Indivisibles (alongside the NY Working Families Party) showed up, brought attention to their own Unrepresentative member, got local press, and forced that Rep. to make concessions on the record. It was a textbook example of effective constituent pressure.

The NY-17 action was thoughtfully messaged and executed. It’s the type of action we’ll need to replicate in districts across the country. To do that, we have to be smart about how we talk about this issue and how to focus our energies. 

Indivisible isn’t a messaging or polling firm, but the good news is we partner with lots of smart messaging gurus, like the good folks at Navigator who released some helpful messaging guidance on how to talk about default. There are some easy to follow lessons from what we’ve learned from our partners:

• It’s avoiding default, not raising the debt ceiling. A “debt ceiling” frame leads people to conflate this issue with the discussion about cuts to government spending. That’s McCarthy’s strategy -- don’t assist him. Whether we default has precisely nothing to do with whether we increase or cut spending in the future -- that’s a red herring. The only question is whether the US shirks its obligations and goes into default.
• Focus on the real-world costs of default. Going into default will have massive economic consequences for most Americans. Social Security cuts, unemployment, job loss. Take the issue from an abstract economic problem to one that directly impacts people and communities.
• It’s us vs the arsonists. Remember, we are the normal majority of Americans who just want the US to pay its debts. The other side are a wackadoodle, extremist minority who want to turn the US into a nation that shirks its responsibilities and blows up the economy. Define our opponents as what they are.
• Get local media attention. Every Member of Congress has to run for reelection in their home turf. If you get local press, they squirm; if you don’t, it’s easy to ignore you. As I told Rachel, one of the hard learned lessons from all of Indivisibles' work is: pictures or it didn’t happen. Visuals and stories help spread the message.
• Choose the right message for the right target. Got a Democratic representative? Cheer them on as they maintain their stance of no negotiation over the default, as Biden has repeatedly done. We need them to stand strong if we’re going to break the 18’s resolve. Positive reinforcement from constituents is rare in Congress -- people normally only get in touch or make noise when they’re mad about something. Dare to be different -- give some love if it’s warranted.

And if you’re looking to do something right now, Indivisible has two active actions going -- one for folks with GOP representatives, and one for folks with Democratic representatives.

What do you think about all this?

For the last few newsletters we’ve been doing these one-click surveys to gauge movement vibes and gather input, and it’s worked out really well. We’ve had thousands of responses, and it’s been genuinely helpful to read through them. So we’ll keep the ball rolling here.

Let me be honest: one of the biggest challenges we face with the default issue is that it sounds boring and dense. So I want to ask you: having read through this, on a scale of 1-5, do you feel like you could talk about this to your relative who doesn’t care much about politics?  

Feel free to just click one of the numbers and leave it at that, but if you’re willing to share additional information about what was helpful, remaining questions you have, or what would be useful to you, I’d love to hear it. I will indeed read through all the replies, and this will influence the kind of support materials we produce for the movement. So please do share your thoughts if you have a sec!

I look forward to reading through your good ideas!

In solidarity,
Ezra 

PS: We’ve announced this before but in case you missed it, this is the last newsletter before IndivisiBaby #2 (name TBD) arrives later this month if all goes. So here’s a pic of Zeke enjoying his last month as an only child -- he stole my Sgt. Pepper's cap and is giving a (in his words) “daddy smile.” Frankly I’m shocked by how much he looks like just a little kid now. When did that happen?