Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei speaks as part of the forty-fourth anniversary events of the Iranian Revolution in Tehran, Iran on February 8, 2023. (Iranian Leader Press Office/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

When Joe Biden became president, he rejected the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign against Iran and instead embraced what he called a “smarter way.” But Biden’s approach rests on a dense set of interlocking assumptions—not just about Iran, but also about the rivalry with China and Russia, and the place of the Middle East in that competition. Mounting evidence contradicts those assumptions, but the administration clings to them like a needy lover—because they are enormously seductive.

Writing in an essay this week, Senior Fellow Michael Doran explains why the “smarter way” is failing and describes “seven pillars of Middle Eastern wisdom.” Below are some highlights.

Key Insights

1. The United States cannot quarantine the Middle East from great power competition.

China and all its East Asia rivals heavily depend on oil and liquified natural gas that either originate in the Middle East or transit through it. Thanks to the American military’s primacy in the region, the United States can impose an energy blockade on China in the event of a war. Acutely aware of this vulnerability, China aspires to become the dominant power in the Middle East. If Xi Jinping achieves this goal, not only will his supply lines be secure, but he will also hold at risk the supply lines of all his Asian rivals, including Taiwan.

2. Russia and Iran are China’s allies in the global struggle to undermine the American-led international order.

Moscow and Tehran play crucial roles as Xi’s stalking horses. Unlike China, they deploy forces on the ground that they use to openly contest the plans of America and its allies. Xi knows that he cannot topple the United States from its throne until he completes China’s military buildup, one of the largest in history—a project that will take another decade or so. When it ends, he will possess the requisite military power to mount a more direct campaign against American primacy in the Middle East. In the meantime, he is taking the indirect approach. Careful to avoid head-to-head competition, he seeks to destroy the United States’ reputation as the region’s decisive strategic actor.

3. The Middle East is a hard power arena.

The debates over the Iraq war fooled many Americans into overvaluing “soft power” and “smart power.” The Middle East remains what it has been since the First World War: the cockpit of global Realpolitik. Therefore, what America’s allies want most from the United States is assistance with their hard power security challenges.

Quotes may be edited for clarity and length. 

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