Montana Republican gubernatorial candidates debate

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VOTERS TO DECIDE RUNOFF ELECTION FOR STATE HOUSE SEAT IN TEXAS
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Author Elizabeth Markowitz ([link removed]) (D) and real estate investor Gary Gates ([link removed]) (R) are running in a special runoff election ([link removed]) to represent District 28 in the Texas House of Representatives. The seat was previously held by Rep.John Zerwas ([link removed]) (R), who resigned on September 30, 2019, to take an executive position with the University of Texas System. The winner of the election will serve out the remainder of Zerwas’ term, which ends in January 2020.

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The election has broader implications than just who will represent the district over the next year. Both Democrats and Republicans see it as an early indicator of what could happen in the general elections this fall. Democrats believe a win here could start a domino effect that sees them take control of the House, while Republicans view a potential victory here as a sign that they can hold the House heading into next year’s redistricting process.

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Several notable figures from outside the district have made endorsements in the race. 2020 presidential contenders U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) and former Vice President Joe Biden (D) endorsed Markowitz. On the Republican side, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) endorsed Gates. Forward Majority and the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee have spent money on behalf of Markowitz during the campaign, while Gates has received funding from the Republican State Leadership Committee.

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So far in 2020, 27 state legislative special elections have been scheduled for 2020 in 13 states. Of those, 12 are for seats previously held by Democrats and 15 are for seats previously held by Republicans. In 2019, there were 77 state legislative special elections were held in 24 states: 39 for Democratic seats and 38 for Republican seats. Republicans flipped five seats, Democrats flipped two, and one seat went from Republican to independent control.

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MONTANA REPUBLICAN GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATES DEBATE
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Montana's three declared Republican gubernatorial candidates ([link removed]) met for a debate in Billings Thursday. The debate was the first to feature all three candidates. Attorney General Tim Fox ([link removed]) (R), Rep. Greg Gianforte ([link removed]) (R), and state Sen. Al Olszewski ([link removed]) (R) each stated their support for decreasing tax rates, cutting the state budget, and encouraging the expansion of Montana's energy sector but differed on who had the right experience to win the general election.

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Fox argued that he would be the candidate with the most appeal in the general election, saying that he was born in Montana and had extensive experience with the issues voters face during his time as the state's attorney general. He said that in the 2016 election, when he ran for attorney general and Gianforte ran for governor, he received 96,000 more votes than Gianforte did. 

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Gianforte argued that his experience as the founder of RightNow Technologies, a Bozeman-based software firm which Oracle purchased for $1.5 billion in 2011, gave him the best set of skills to develop the state's economy. He also said that his working relationship with President Trump would be an asset to the state and named Trump as an example he would aspire to.

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Olszewski said that his experience with state government as a legislator and in business as a practicing physician gave him the best sense out of any of the candidates of what needed to be done in Montana and how to do it. He said that he would emphasize cracking down on crime and promised to put up billboards on the state line offering rewards for information on drug dealers and human traffickers.

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Fox, Gianforte, and Olszewski are the only three Republicans to have declared so far, although additional candidates have until March 9 to file. On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney (D), state House Minority Leader Casey Schreiner (D), and consultant Whitney Williams (D) are the three declared candidates. The June 2 primaries are open to all registered voters. 

* Incumbent Steve Bullock (D) is term-limited and cannot seek re-election. No Republican has won election as governor of Montana since Judy Martz (R) in 2000. Because the governor is a Democrat and Republicans control both chambers of the state legislature, Montana is one of 14 states with divided government ([link removed]) .

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INDIANA DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE COMMISSIONER TO RESIGN, LAUNCH BID FOR ATTORNEY GENERAL
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Indiana Department of Revenue Commissioner Adam Krupp's ([link removed]) resignation in order to focus on his attorney general campaign will take effect Friday. Krupp, who has served as revenue commissioner since 2017, is the second Republican to challenge incumbent Attorney General Curtis Hill ([link removed]) (R)—attorney John Westercamp ([link removed]) (R) has been in the running since June.

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Hill, who was first elected in 2016, is currently undergoing a review before the Disciplinary Commission of the state Supreme Court. The review follows allegations levied against him in July 2018 by four women who worked in the state legislature, including a member of the state House, that he had touched them inappropriately at an event in March of that year. Hill has denied the allegations.

* Gov. Eric Holcombe (R), who called for Hill's resignation in July 2018, has so far declined to endorse in the race. In Indiana, state executive officials other than the governor and lieutenant governor are nominated at state party conventions rather than selected in a primary. The Republican nominating convention will take place on June 19-20. Republicans have won each Indiana attorney general election since 2000. Because the governor, attorney general, and secretary of state are all Republicans, Indiana is one of 19 states with a Republican triplex ([link removed]) .

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FORMER ASSEMBLYMAN CIATTARELLI LAUNCHES 2021 NEW JERSEY GUBERNATORIAL BID
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Former New Jersey Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli ([link removed]) (R) launched his 2021 campaign for governor Tuesday. Ciattarelli was first elected to a North Jersey seat in the Assembly in 2011 and served seven years, including four as assistant minority whip. He earlier served as a Somerset County freeholder, as mayor of Raritan, and on the Raritan City Council.  He is the first candidate to formally enter the 2021 gubernatorial race.

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Ciattarelli ran for governor when the office was last up in 2017, finishing second out of five candidates in the Republican primary ([link removed]) behind then-Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno (R). He placed first in seven of the state's 21 counties and was the only candidate other than Guadagno to lead in any county.

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Ciattarelli's initial endorsers include state Sen. Kip Bateman (R) and Somerset County GOP Chairman Al Gaburo (R). Somerset County is Ciattarelli's home county and where he received the greatest share of the vote in 2017.

* Ciattarelli is the first candidate to enter the 2021 election—other potential Republican candidates include state GOP Chairman Doug Steinhardt (R) and Assembly Minority Leader Jon Bramnick (R). On the Democratic side, incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy ([link removed]) (D) has not announced whether he will seek re-election, although he is eligible to do so. The last Democratic governor of New Jersey to win re-election was Brendan Byrne (D) in 1977. Because the governor is a Democrat and Democrats hold majorities in both houses of the state legislature, New Jersey is one of 15 Democratic trifectas ([link removed]) .

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HARMON ELECTED NEW ILLINOIS SENATE PRESIDENT
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The Illinois State Senate ([link removed]) elected Sen. Don Harmon ([link removed]) (D) as its president for the upcoming legislative session. Harmon won the post over fellow senator Kimberly Lightford (D).

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In Illinois, the state Senate president is the highest-ranking legislative officer, serving as the leader of the upper chamber of the Illinois General Assembly. The president presides over legislative sessions and ensures that members of the chamber abide by procedural rules.

* Harmon replaces long-time senator John Cullerton ([link removed]) (D), who resigned on January 20, 2020. Cullerton served for 41 years in the Illinois General Assembly and for 11 years as Illinois Senate President.

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CANDIDATE FILING PERIOD FOR STATE EXECUTIVE AND LEGISLATIVE OFFICES TO END IN WEST VIRGINIA
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The major-party filing deadline ([link removed]) will pass to run for elected office in West Virginia ([link removed]) . In West Virginia, prospective candidates may file for the following state offices:

* Governor
* Attorney General
* Secretary of State
* Treasurer
* Auditor
* Commissioner of Agriculture
* State Senate (17 seats)
* House of Delegates (100 seats)
* Supreme Court of Appeals (3 seats)

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The primary is scheduled for May 12, and the general election is scheduled for November 3, 2020.

* West Virginia’s statewide filing deadline is the 11th to take place ([link removed]) in the 2020 election cycle. The next statewide filing deadline is on February 7 in Indiana.

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DEMOCRATIC PARTY SELECTS FEIGENHOLTZ TO REPLACE CULLERTON IN ILLINOIS SENATE
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Sara Feigenholtz ([link removed]) (D) was appointed by Democratic Party leaders in Illinois Senate District 6 to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation of former Sen. John Cullerton (D). Feigenholtz’s Senate term will end on January 11, 2023.

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Feigenholtz was the only person to formally announce her interest in Cullerton’s Senate seat. She was unanimously appointed by Democratic Party leaders tasked with appointing Cullerton’s replacement. Before Feigenholtz was appointed to the Illinois Senate she served in the Illinois House of Representatives, representing District 12. She served as a state representative for 26 years. 

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The Illinois Senate has no remaining vacancies. Feigenholtz’s resignation from the House to accept her appointment to the Senate created Illinois’ only House vacancy. Democratic leaders in Illinois House District 12 have not yet appointed a replacement for Feigenholtz.

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REPUBLICANS HOLD CONNECTICUT HOUSE SEAT IN SPECIAL ELECTION
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Harry Arora ([link removed]) (R) defeated Cheryl Moss ([link removed]) (D) in a special general election for the District 151 seat in the Connecticut House of Representatives ([link removed]) . The seat became vacant after Fred Camillo (R) resigned his seat on December 2, 2019. Camillo was elected first selectman of Greenwich, Connecticut, in November 2019. 

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Arora and Moss were nominated for this election via party conventions. Five state legislative special elections have been held so far in 2020. No seat has changed party hands this year.

* In elections between 2011 and 2019, either the Democratic Party or Republican Party saw an average net gain ([link removed]) of four seats across the country. Between 2018 and 2019, Democrats had a net gain of six seats.

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BALLOT MEASURES UPDATE
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** 2020:
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Fifty-two statewide measures ([link removed]) in 24 states have been certified for the 2020 ballot so far.

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Fifteen of the 52 certified 2020 measures are citizen-initiated measures. Thirty-six are legislative referrals. One is an automatic constitutional revision commission question.

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No measures were certified for the 2020 ballot last week.

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Proponents of six additional ballot initiatives or veto referendums ([link removed]) in Alaska, Arkansas, California, Michigan, and Utah submitted signatures, which are pending verification by state officials.

 
** 2019 IN REVIEW:
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A total of 36 statewide ballot measures ([link removed]) were on 2019 ballots in eight states: Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Washington. Four constitutional amendments referred by the Louisiana state legislature were on the October 12 ballot. The other 32 measures were on the November ballot. Twenty-four measures were legally binding. Twelve measures were advisory questions in Washington.

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There were two citizen-initiated measures on the ballot, one initiative and one veto referendum, both in Washington. The initiative was approved and the veto referendum was rejected, which was the result sought by the measure's sponsors in each case.

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State legislatures referred 22 measures to the ballot. Voters approved 18 and rejected four.

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There were more statewide measures in 2019 than in any odd-numbered year since 2007, largely due to the record number of advisory questions in Washington; the 24 binding statewide measures was about average since 2013 in odd-numbered years and well below the average over the last few decades.

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In 2019, ballot measure support and opposition campaigns raised about $28.04 million. Most of the contributions (94.1%) were for measures in three states—Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Washington.

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STATE LEGISLATIVE SPECIAL ELECTIONS
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So far this year, 28 state legislative special elections ([link removed]) have been scheduled in 13 states. Special elections have been held for five seats so far; heading into those races, Democrats had previously controlled one of the seats while Republicans previously controlled four.

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In special elections between 2011 and 2019, one party (either Republicans or Democrats) saw an average net gain of four seats nationally each year.

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An average of 55 seats were filled through special elections in each of the past five even years (2010 ([link removed]) : 26, 2012 ([link removed]) : 45, 2014 ([link removed]) : 40, 2016 ([link removed]) : 65, 2018 ([link removed]) : 99).

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An average of 88 seats were filled through special elections in each of the past five odd years (2011 ([link removed]) : 94, 2013 ([link removed]) : 84, 2015 ([link removed]) : 88, 2017 ([link removed]) : 98, 2019 ([link removed]) : 77).
 
** UPCOMING SPECIAL ELECTIONS INCLUDE:
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January 28

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Georgia House of Representatives District 171 ([link removed])

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Texas House of Representatives District 28 (general runoff) ([link removed])

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Texas House of Representatives District 100 (general runoff) ([link removed])

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Texas House of Representatives District 148 (general runoff) ([link removed])

February 4

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Georgia State Senate District 13 ([link removed])

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Massachusetts House of Delegates 32nd Middlesex District (primary) ([link removed])

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Minnesota House of Representatives District 30A ([link removed])

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Minnesota House of Representatives District 60A ([link removed])

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Rhode Island House of Representatives District 56 (primary) ([link removed])

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Thirty-six states—Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin—are in regular session ([link removed]) .
 
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