[ Geostrategically located, with profitable natural resources, the
Arctic is rapidly becoming a militarized zone of power politics in the
new cold war, contested by the US and Europe, Russia and China.]
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THE ARCTIC IS THE NEXT FRONTIER IN THE NEW COLD WAR  
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Renate Bridenthal
February 28, 2023
Geopolitical Economy
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_ Geostrategically located, with profitable natural resources, the
Arctic is rapidly becoming a militarized zone of power politics in the
new cold war, contested by the US and Europe, Russia and China. _

The Canadian Coast Guard in the Arctic Ocean,

 

The Arctic had once been a largely peaceful zone, harboring
cooperative international scientific research. But today, it is
swiftly becoming one of militarized power politics
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Heavily armed nations surround the melting Arctic Ocean, with its
unstable environment of eroding shorelines, accessible natural
resources, and contested maritime passages.

This February, the U.S. launched little publicized,
month-long military exercises in the Arctic
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hosted by Finland and Norway.

The Pentagon’s European Command described the exercises – named
Arctic Forge 23, Defense Exercise North, and Joint Viking – as a way
“to demonstrate readiness by deploying a combat-credible force to
enhance power in NATO’s northern flank”.

The exercises bring together more than 10,000 military personnel from
the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark,
Finland, and Norway.

Actual hostilities could have potentially broken out earlier in
February, when the U.S. military shot down an unidentified object over
Alaska, soon after a U.S. fighter jet brought down an alleged Chinese
spy balloon over the Atlantic.

The balloon over Alaska turned out to belong to a U.S. hobby club
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but a sense of menace was maintained.

One way people become aware of impending conflicts is through the
entertainment industry, which is important in the process of
manufacturing consent.

Right now, a Danish series called “Borgen – Power & Glory” is
doing just that, revealing the growing importance of the Arctic as a
“geopolitical hotspot in world politics
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Borgen addresses the topic of natural resources in the Arctic, which
roils up contention between the United States, Russia and China.

The series centers on Greenland, a Danish possession with an
independence movement that gains strength from the discovery of a
vital resource. In the drama, that is oil. In reality, it is rare
earth elements.

In the drama, this creates tension for the Danish government, caught
up in a great power struggle between the U.S., China, and Russia. In
reality, Greenland is only one part of a looming conflict in the
Arctic, not only about resources, but also about passage through the
ocean, which has become more navigable due to accelerated climate
change.

The sinister presentation of China’s representative in Borgen
creates the fear of China’s actual presence in the Arctic. It has a
uranium and rare earths mining joint venture with Australia in
southern Greenland, which allows two Chinese firms to lead in
processing and marketing the materials. China is also exploring zinc,
iron and oil deposits in Greenland.

Not only has this activity raised concerns about competitive access to
rare earths, but, in the case of Greenland, it has raised security
issues for Denmark, a member of NATO.

As a result, Denmark has revised its security policy, in what Foreign
Policy magazine described as a new “geopolitical battlefield
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Echoing U.S. security concerns, Denmark has increased its military
budget with a so-called “Arctic capacity package
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to enhance surveillance with drones, satellites, and radar.

Greenland is relatively autonomous from Denmark and shares a seat with
the kingdom at the Arctic Council, but it does have an independence
movement that could fulfill its goal with the wealth offered by the
mines.

This would cost Denmark its seat in the Arctic Council, and, with it,
the presence of another NATO member.

The Arctic Council [[link removed]], established
in 1996, defines itself as “the leading intergovernmental forum
promoting cooperation, coordination and interaction among the Arctic
States, Arctic Indigenous peoples and other Arctic inhabitants on
common Arctic issues”.

Thus, a bid by China to build an airport in Greenland was prevented by
the Danish government. This was despite the fact that Greenland’s
fishing industry was open to the marketing opportunity it presented,
and to the eventual promise of independence.

China, however, having its own concerns over foreign intervention in
Tibet, Xinjiang, and Taiwan, is unwilling to interfere politically
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Greenland.

Furthermore, intervention from the U.S. was likely – as dramatized
in Borgen – given the U.S. air base at Thule
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which is home to the U.S. Space Force and a global network of missile
warning sensors.

A successful independence movement in Greenland would cause Denmark to
lose its status as an Arctic State, as well as potentially threaten
Washington’s continued use of the base.

 

Climate change impacts the geopolitics of the Arctic

Besides the question of Greenland, the navigability of the Arctic
Ocean, due to its thawing, has created several geopolitical issues. It
now greatly shortens China’s trade route with Europe and offers a
backup to the Malacca Straits, which U.S. warships could blockade in
case of a conflict.

Indeed, in 2012, a Chinese icebreaker made full transit through the
Arctic to Iceland. And in 2023, China tested its third trip
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proving its trading capability and enhancing scientific cooperation
between the two countries.

While China is not itself an Arctic state, it has laid out its claims
in international terms in its Arctic Policy of 2018
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“The Arctic situation now goes beyond its original inter-Arctic
States or regional nature, having a vital bearing on the interests of
States outside the region… with global implications and
international impacts.”

Beijing claims “rights in respect of scientific research,
navigation, overflight, fishing, laying of submarine cables and
pipelines in the high seas and other relevant sea areas in the Arctic
Ocean, and rights to resource exploration and exploitation in the
Area.”

It further claims that, geographically, China’s climate system and
ecological environment are affected by Arctic events, and therefore
deserves to be consulted in matters of security and global governance.

More assertively, China expects to play a major role in expanding the
network of shipping routes in the Arctic in the form of a Polar Silk
Road “to facilitate connectivity and sustainable economic and social
development of the Arctic.”

These ambitions have alarmed Western countries, despite China’s
disclaimers of intent: respect, cooperation, win-win result, and
sustainability.

On the other hand, even some Western military observers validate
China’s interest in and contribution to resource development and
scientific cooperation in the Arctic. They assuage fears of China’s
use of the right of passage through Arctic waters.

Furthermore, China has yet to invest in any Russian Arctic port
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and no joint naval exercises have been held in Russian Arctic waters.

Finally, China’s position as an accredited observer to the Arctic
Council constrains any political challenges it may mount. As a 2022
academic article published by the U.S. Air Force put it: “China Is
Not a Peer Competitor in the Arctic
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China-Russia partnership

The growing closeness of China and Russia, nevertheless, raises new
questions about a shifting balance of power in the region.

Russia’s northern border occupies over half the shoreline on the
ocean, which gives it claims to offshore resources like oil. The North
Sea Route, hugging the length of Russia’s northern border, offers a
shipping lane for Chinese trade with Europe.

Historically, Russia has seen the route as within its sphere of
influence and has not accepted China’s term of a Polar Silk Road.

The Ukraine war, however, has made Russia more dependent on China.
Their partnership may change the balance of power
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the region.

As of 2021, Russia chaired the Arctic Council for a two-year term
stint. But the Arctic Chiefs of Defense meetings and the Arctic
Security Forces Roundtable have excluded Russia since a democratic
referendum with more than 90% approval led to the annexation of Crimea
in 2014.

Claiming to perceive a threat, NATO has revived an old Cold War
expression, referring to the “northern flank” for this area, and
exploring its potentially conflictual relationship with Russia in that
context.

For Moscow, defense of its northern border is a prime security issue.
But with the revival of Cold War tensions, the U.S. and NATO consider
Russia’s militarization to be a threat, and they are remilitarizing
as well.

As Vijay Prashad has shown
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NATO’s so-called “Centre of Excellence – Cold Weather Operations
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based in Norway, brings Western allies together for biannual military
exercises in the Arctic.

Should Finland and Sweden join NATO, Russia would be confronted with a
phalanx of opponents on the Arctic Council and be encircled north and
west by hostile forces.

Consequently, the stability of the Arctic region is now endangered.

The Arctic: a treasure trove of natural resources

In addition to its geostrategic location, the Arctic is crucial for
its natural resources.

90 percent of Russia’s current gas production and 60 percent of its
oil production take place in the Arctic. The region has a
staggering 60 percent of Russia’s gas and oil reserves
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The Russian Arctic also has large deposits of coal, petroleum, and
natural gas, as well as diamonds, gold, nickel, cobalt, copper,
palladium, platinum, zinc, and rare earth metals.

In addition, Russia aspires to make the region more hospitable, even
tourist friendly. It plans to build new cities, as well as harbors,
airports, and IT equipment.

These plans include ways of preventing the negative impacts of this
development on climate change, to which the Arctic is highly
vulnerable.

Finally, the Northern Sea Route, made passable by the Russian fleet of
40 icebreakers, including four nuclear-powered ones and a new series
planned, is a bone of contention in maritime law.

Russia considers this a national waterway. But if foreign ships are to
pass through for trade, it would have to become an international
route, possibly open to hostile warships as well.

The conflict in Eastern Europe, on Russia’s western border, has
increased Moscow’s fear of encirclement, including in its north.

U.S. and NATO threaten to upset the balance in the Arctic

Denmark, with its autonomous region Greenland, as well as Norway
jockey for position in the Arctic. As members of NATO, they have
participated in maneuvers they consider a form of deterrence.

Should Finland and Sweden also join NATO, Russia’s northern border
would face a militarized front including Canada, the United States,
and Iceland.

A delicate balance to avoid war has so far been maintained within the
Arctic Council. However, this equilibrium is increasingly being
challenged by a heightened diplomatic and military presence of the
U.S. in the Arctic, which has created the position of
“Ambassador-At-Large for the Arctic Region
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and is developing Army Arctic Special Operations Forces
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A stated mission of these U.S. Special Forces is to leverage the
specialized Arctic knowledge of Indigenous peoples for military
purposes and to prevent their “vulnerability to other influences.”

Given the malign neglect suffered by Alaskan and Canadian Inuit people
and by Sami people in the other Arctic nation-states, this is a real
concern.

A 2021 U.S. Army document announced that Washington must “regain
Arctic dominance
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and “win” in the region.

The chief of staff paper anticipated northern routes from which troops
could be deployed from Alaska to points around the globe. It also
recognized the importance of Arctic resources, like rare minerals
needed for components of aircraft engines and advanced weapons.

A new NATO Arctic Command
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to establish a formal Arctic Security Forum that includes the U.S.-led
military alliance.

While civilian observers acknowledge Russia’s right to defend its
northern border, and urge case-by-case management of disagreements to
maintain stability, the U.S. military recommends serious strategizing
in the Arctic Council
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its NATO allies, which may soon include Sweden and Finland.

Not only is the Northern Sea Route along Russia’s coast contested in
maritime law but so too are the Northwest Passage in the western
Arctic, adjoining Canada, Greenland, and Alaska.

In this case, Canada agrees with Russia that maintaining national
control is a matter of sovereign right.

Other states with heavy commercial maritime traffic, however, such as
Germany, Japan, and South Korea, claim international right of passage
under the UN Convention on Law of the Sea.

China could also claim this right, regarding the Northern Sea Route,
though it would conflict with Russian interests.

The rights of Indigenous peoples in the Arctic

The heightened tension over the Northwest Passage has led the Canadian
government to court its Inuit population, whose settlement area
encompasses most of the Northwest Passage routes.

The land claims agreement of 1993, however, does not give the
Indigenous people authority over marine areas, only consultation.

This agreement was successfully employed in the Inuit statement
supporting Canada’s rebuttal to former U.S. Secretary of State Mike
Pompeo, who bluntly denounced Ottawa’s claim over the Northwest
Passage as “illegitimate.”

Environmental issues and the lives of Indigenous peoples gain
attention in this political whirlpool, but mainly rhetorically.

The damage wrought by the fossil fuel industry and more recently by
new technologies of “green” mining continue to push First Nations
further off their lands, imperiling their natural foods.

But they are assuming a stronger political voice in the upcoming
rivalries between their respective nation-states.

Both the Inuit peoples of the western Arctic and the Sami of the
eastern Arctic have developed circumpolar organizations that
participate in the governance of the Arctic.

The states that colonized them and in which they are now minorities
are taking a greater interest in maintaining their loyalty and in
acquiring their knowledge of Arctic conditions in case of conflicts.

The Inuit of the western region of the U.S., Canada, and Greenland
total an estimated 180.000 population.

16,500 are in Alaska, organized into the Alaska Federation of Nations.
The resolutions of its October 2022 annual meeting
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resentment of many hardships: the decline in stock of fisheries
threatening native food security; a drug epidemic of fentanyl, heroin,
and methamphetamine; a high incidence of domestic violence, sexual
violence, and missing and murdered people; waste and contaminants left
by the military and other governmental agencies; ongoing seizure of
native lands; and insufficient access to education and business.

Especially poignant is a resolution “imploring the state of Alaska
to end its practice of requiring tribal waivers of sovereign immunity
as a condition for receiving grant funds.”

The more than 70,000 Inuit in Canada are largely urbanized, due to a
long history of forced assimilation. With high unemployment
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low wages and substandard housing, they have significant food
insecurity, a high rate of imprisonment, and youth suicide.

In the 1970s, an organization of Inuit
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formed to protect their individual and cultural rights, as well as
land claims. It is part of the Inuit Circumpolar Council, which
connects with Inuit in Alaska and Greenland, and has connections with
the United Nations.

The Sami are a historically nomadic herding people who once roamed
freely and are now divided with approximately 20,000 in Sweden, 50,000
in Norway, 8,000 in Finland and 2,000 in Russia.

In all of these states, they suffer from ongoing land grabs, which
interfere with reindeer grazing routes; discrimination; and violent
racism. The deliberate killing of reindeer herds have plagued
the Sami in Sweden [[link removed]],
despite government attempts at reconciliation and some funding.

The Sami in Finland
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of land, inhibition of reindeer herding, and lack of power over access
to resources on their remaining land. Finland now touts cultural
tourism of the Sami.

The Sami in Norway
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organized against infrastructure projects that threaten even more land
loss, to little avail.

The Sami in Russia
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the smallest group, reestablished contact with the others in 1991.
Their urban conditions are not better than that of the Sami elsewhere,
but their reindeer herding has a unique problem.

They had been organized into cooperatives which now have difficulty
readjusting to new conditions of ongoing industrialization. As
elsewhere, this development continues to usurp their pasture lands. In
addition, tourist fishing has reduced their food supply.

Like the Inuit, the Sami have a circumpolar organization for common
interests, a Sami Council consisting of three Parliaments representing
the indigenous peoples of Sweden, Norway, and Finland. The Russian
Sami are represented by NGOs.

The war in Ukraine has created a split among the Sami
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In April 2022, the Council suspended formal relations with
the Russian group
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which supported the Russian Federation, portending the incursion of
sub-Arctic politics into the polar region.

The relatively peaceful days of the Arctic are over. Its warming is
turning up the geopolitical heat in the polar region, bringing to mind
an old adage: “What happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay in the
Arctic.”

_[RENATE BRIDENTHAL is a retired professor of history who taught at
Brooklyn College from 1967 to 2001. She co-edited a widely used
textbook on the history of women in Europe and has co-edited and
co-authored many more books, including most recently The Hidden
History of Crime, Corruption, and States (2013). She is also a
long-time member of the editorial board of the academic journal
Science & Society [[link removed]].]_
 

* Artic
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* new cold war
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* U.S. foreign policy
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* U.S. military policy
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* Europe
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* Russia
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* China
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* natural resources
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* Canada
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* NATO
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* scientific research
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* nuclear proliferation
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* Denmark
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* Greenland
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* Iceland
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* Norway
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* Sweden
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* Indigenous peoples
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