GOOD AFTERNOON & welcome to my South West Surrey update No.215 -
A busy week nationally as budget prep continues, along with meeting manufacturing leaders and top technology leaders at Ernst and Young to discuss what more could be done to grow the economy, boost productivity and create high paying jobs. Locally, I’ve continued to coordinate investigations into the ongoing odour in Bramley and welcomed a Godalming group to the Houses of Parliament (do email me if you would like to come on the next tour).
WHAT’S GOING ON IN WESTMINSTER
TREASURY UPDATE With less than a week to go before the budget, just how are they done behind the scenes? As I explain in this week’s Herald, work began well before Christmas. Treasury officials are the brightest in Whitehall and they start a gentle process of guiding Chancellors to focus down on a few main objectives for what is known as a ‘fiscal event.’ I of course told them I wanted to focus on the four ‘E’s of my growth plan - Enterprise, Employment, Education and Everywhere.
They then set up what is called a ‘scorecard’ - a double-sided A3 piece of paper which is effectively a giant spreadsheet. It lists every single measure you might consider alongside its impact on the national accounts over the next five years. Every number on the spreadsheet is a billion - and it covers nearly one trillion pounds of tax and spend overall. Those measures are then added up and fed into estimates of inflation, unemployment, debt and broader economic growth. The result is a number right at the bottom of the back page which tells you the ‘headroom’ you have left if we are to meet our fiscal rule for debt to be falling as a proportion of GDP by the fifth year.
That number matters because it is a signal to the outside world of our willingness to pay down our debt. To give it extra credibility, since 2010 it has been audited by the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (the ‘OBR’). Some people complain that our system gives an outside body too much power. But in fairness they are simply checking that a Chancellor is keeping the promises he chooses to make. It is true that by independently auditing the numbers a Chancellor presents in a budget we subject ourselves to a discipline that no other country does - but financial discipline is surely a good thing to sit at the heart of our system.
By the time you read this I will have received the OBR’s forecasts for the economy and tax revenues before any changes I wish to make in the budget. I have now also shared - in strictest confidence - the things we are planning to do. They then feed that into their model to see whether we are sticking to our fiscal rules. That allows me to stand up in parliament and announce a package that has been rigorously checked. Next week I have to present the budget. It is one of the biggest parliamentary occasions of the year and I have always found it better to write my own speeches - although I get tremendous help from my team in crafting it and checking any facts or statistics.
I found myself staying up until the small hours to do that ahead of the Autumn Statement and it has been the same this time. In fairness it is a gruelling process for all involved because it is just so important to get the calculations right. Nor do things stop after you have delivered it: there is a nervous wait for the verdict from the press, and even more importantly from the respected Institute for Fiscal Studies who report the next day. Then of course there is the verdict of history which may take as long as a General Election to fully understand…
SMALL BOAT CROSSINGS Since 2014 we have sent France more than a quarter of a billion pounds to help prevent these deadly crossings, but boats have kept coming, so clearly we need to do more. It is fraught with legal complexity, but underlying it is a basic principle of fairness. Do we want to offer asylum and citizenship to people who come here illegally, in the process fuelling a brutal people-smuggling trade? Or do we want to show generosity and a big-hearted welcome to people coming through legal and safe routes from Ukraine, Hong Kong, Afghanistan and Syria? Travel is massively cheaper today which makes migrant populations much more mobile, and I suspect the changes the Home Secretary is introducing will be adopted by other countries in due course. Legislation has now been presented to parliament that will make all asylum claims from those who come to the UK on small boats inadmissible, placing a duty on the Home Secretary to remove as soon as reasonably practicable anyone who has come to the UK on small boats and relocate them home or to a safe third country. I am afraid this is one where critics do have to answer a simple question: what is their alternative?
SCIENCE SUPERPOWER One of the government’s newly created departments has announced a plan to make us a science superpower. With more Nobel Prizes than anywhere except America this is a bold but deliverable plan that will grow the economy, create highly skilled jobs and transform all of our lives. The PM and the Secretary of State for Technology announced a new framework to boost infrastructure, investment and skills for the UK’s most exciting growing technologies from artificial intelligence to quantum and supercomputing. The Chancellor is backing the new framework with more than £370 million in new government funding to make it possible.
COVID CONTINUES Notwithstanding Matt Hancock’s whatsapp messages, the number of Covid cases in England has frustratingly continued to increase slightly, and as with last week, the ONS are reporting that around 1 in 45 of us have the virus. However, the government’s Coronavirus dashboard shows that cases are down by 6.1%%, hospitalisations down 5.8% and most importantly, deaths down by 7.3%.
The key number is 0300 200 1008 for anyone with pandemic related difficulties. Also, check out my full list of local groups working to support vulnerable residents.
WHAT’S GOING ON IN SOUTH WEST SURREY
GREEN SPACES - As many of you will know from my Green Spaces campaign, the Surrey Hills boundary hasn’t been reviewed since its original design in 1958, and I have repeatedly called for this to be reconsidered. So it is great news that on Tuesday, the statutory consultation on the proposed extensions to the boundary of the Surrey Hills National Landscape went live (running until 13th June). We really need these changes to happen because they will increase protection for lots of our most precious bits of countryside so if you, like me, want to contribute directly to the consultation, you can find more information on the DEFRA website here.
BRAMLEY SMELL ISSUE - Following my email to them, Thames Water have confirmed that there is no link between the worrying odour and the pump issues at Gosden Common. However, they did observe an obvious smell by the Post Office and under a nearby gulley. As you know, SCC Trading Standards undertook a pressure test at the service station on 22/02 - I have now received a copy of the report, and all seems in order. However, they have said that the onsite petrol interceptor separator was last emptied on 26/10/22, and the frequency of the clearance of the interceptor should be at least every 6 months/determined by site conditions. A job report has been submitted by the service station for these works to be carried out as a precaution, and once completed, Trading Standards will let me know. As things stand, Waverley has said that there is little else they can do with regards to linking the smell to the petrol station.
However, this morning I was alerted to the fact that the fire service had closed and cordoned off the petrol station, as worryingly, fuel was seen running down Station Road. At this stage we don’t know whether this incident is linked to the ongoing smell, but regardless, the situation in Bramley requires urgent action and the root cause of the issue needs to be identified as soon as possible. Residents are understandably worried about their health - some are having to use fans to disperse the smell, and local businesses are experiencing drastically reduced footfall. Therefore, I have contacted Tom Horwood (CEO at Waverley), Alan Lovell (Chair at the Environment Agency) and SCC Trading Standards requesting that specialists attend the site today for more in-depth investigation, including re-checking the watercourse for fuel contamination (there are no water abstraction points in the vicinity). We must get to the bottom of this!
CANCER FUNDRAISING HITS £300k I recently learnt that The campaign has now reached £300k which is a big milestone! Huge thanks to all those who have helped and supported our fundraising to date. On completion, the new centre will help to bring world-class surgical services to people living in Surrey and the Southeast. This new facility will also reduce waiting times, leading to better outcomes and patient experiences. Over the coming weeks, I hope to bring you some examples of equipment on the shopping list, along with copies of the initial plans. As always, thank you for your interest and support.
PARTY LIKE IT’S 2023 - The Coronation of King Charles III and his wife Camilla as King and Queen of the United Kingdom will take place over the Bank Holiday weekend 6th-8th May. So, with just over two months to go, it’s time to get started on your plans for the weekend. Why not speak to your neighbours and come together for a street party? Please note that if the party requires a road closure, you will need to submit your application to Waverley by 3rd April to be in time for the Coronation.
JOIN ME Want to get more involved locally? Email me at [email protected] to join my growing team supporting our work in our community.
AND FINALLY… As you’ll know from my video on inflation, my coffee of choice is a flat white. However, it seems the trend will soon be ordering an Oleato - an olive oil infused coffee…any takers??
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