Russia May Shift to Defense

Russia lacks the ammunition and troops to make major territorial gains in Ukraine this year and could shift to a hold-and-defend strategy, dragging out the war, DNI Avril Haines said in congressional testimony today, as the NYT reports.

Russian Forces Claim Progress in Bakhmut

The owner of Russia’s Wagner Group military contractor claimed Wednesday that his troops have extended their gains in the Ukrainian stronghold of Bakhmut, but it remained unclear how long the grinding fight might go on, as the AP reports.

Kyiv Denies Role in Nord Stream Blasts

Ukrainian officials on Wednesday denied any role in the September explosions that damaged the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea, after Western diplomats and intelligence officials said they suspect pro-Ukrainian saboteurs may have been behind the blasts. Russian officials also dismissed the report, claiming without evidence that the United States was seeking to hide its own involvement in the attack, as The Washington Post reports.

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In That Number

11,000

The EU military assistance mission to Ukraine will have trained more than 11,000 Ukrainian soldiers by the end of this month and expects to train 30,000 by the end of this year, according to top EU diplomat Josep Borrell.

Source: The Washington Post

Critical Quote

“If Russia does not initiate a mandatory mobilization and identify substantial third party ammunition supplies, it will be increasingly challenging for them to sustain the current level of offensive operations in the coming months. And consequently, they may fully shift to holding and defending territories they occupy. In short we do not foresee the Russian military recovering enough this year to make major territorial gains.”

— Avril Haines, director of national intelligence

iDeas Lab

CSIS's Cynthia Cook and Assistant Secretary of the Army for Acquisition, Logistics, and Technology Douglas R. Bush discussed how the United States can replenish defense stockpiles while supporting allies and partners.

The Andreas C. Dracopoulos iDeas Lab at CSIS enhances our research with the latest in cutting-edge web technologies, design, and multimedia.

Optics

(Photo credit: Roman Pilipey/Getty Images.) Ukrainian female soldiers walk with flowers received from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on International Women's Day on March 8, 2023 in Kyiv, Ukraine.

This Town Tomorrow

At 9:30 a.m., the CSIS Korea Chair discusses South Korea's compensation plan to resolve the wartime forced labor issue between Korea and Japan.

Earlier, at 9:00 a.m., the Wilson Center examines the changing geopolitics of critical minerals and the future of the clean energy transition.

Later, at 10:00 a.m., Carnegie holds a conversation exploring Türkiye’s political future in the wake of the earthquake.

Video

CSIS's Kathleen McInnis sat down with Michelle Nunn, president and CEO of CARE USA, for a Smart Women, Smart Power conversation on how CARE has worked to rally the global community to respond to recent humanitarian crises holistically. Watch the full video here.

Podcasts

CSIS's Jon Alterman and Will Todman discuss why after pouring billions of dollars into rebuilding energy systems in Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, and Yemen, the U.S. and international donors have little to show.

Listen on Spotify & Apple Podcasts.

Smiles

If you’re a rock fan and haven’t seen Amazon’s new “Daisy Jones and the Six” miniseries, you should. Right away. And you should read the book of the same name by Taylor Jenkins Reid about the contentious relationships of a Los Angeles band that came together in the 1970s to find superstardom. “Daisy Jones and the Six” was inspired by Fleetwood Mac, but there is nothing derivative about this tale. Now, on screen, the book has been brought to life, which means the song lyrics Jenkins Reid wrote for the book have now found music and performance. I can’t get enough of it.

The miniseries prompted me to go back and listen to a lot of live Fleetwood Mac, not that I ever need much of a push to listen to one of my favorite bands. Watch this performance by the Big Mac in ’79. Very few acts have ever achieved this level of synergy much less had three all-time great singers.

I invite you to email me at [email protected] and follow me on Twitter @handrewschwartz

The Evening is my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day. It is composed with the External Relations team: Paige Montfort, Claire Dannenbaum, and Claire Smrt.