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On Monday, Conservative Party Chairman, Greg Hands, was quoted as saying Labour’s economic plans included £90 billion in “unfunded spending”.
This £90 billion figure has been doing the rounds in the Conservative Party for a while. It was referenced by Rishi Sunak in January, repeated by foreign secretary James Cleverly, and was also the subject of a video, tweet and web page published by the Conservative Party last month. The Conservatives’ online material suggested that “Labour’s spending commitments would leave a “£90 billion black hole” in public finances”.
It’s important that politicians and political parties are prepared to publicly back up what they say with evidence. The Conservative Party did provide us with detail on its calculations, telling Full Fact that the £90 billion figure is based on the Conservatives’ estimate of the total net cost of various policies announced by the Labour Party since 2021.
But this is not a reliable estimate of what a Labour government would actually mean for public finances, because it’s calculated from a mix of annual and one-off costs, it’s unclear if Labour still plans to implement all the policies, and some individual policy costings appear to be out of date.
When politicians and political parties make broad estimates, it’s important they are clear about what calculations they’ve done and the limitations of any figures they quote.
While Labour has insisted that all its manifesto policies will be fully costed and fully funded, it did not respond to repeated queries from Full Fact about various policy costings or whether it still stood by all the previously-announced pledges included in the Conservatives’ estimate, some of which were made before its “fully funded” commitment. As a result, we’ve not been able to confirm what Labour believes its policies would actually cost.
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FACT CHECK
The health minister Maria Caulfield, speaking on BBC Breakfast, incorrectly said that the British Medical Association (BMA) is demanding a 26% pay rise as part of the forthcoming junior doctors’ strike.
This error has also been made by several media outlets.
It is true that the BMA claims that junior doctors’ pay has fallen by about 26% in real terms since 2008-9 (accounting for rising prices), and that it wants the government to restore their pay to this level.
If this happened, however, it would not amount to a 26% rise from today’s pay level, as many claimed. As the BMA has also noted, it would be more like 35%.
The BMA made its estimates using the RPI measure of inflation. This measure has been criticised by some economic experts, who suggest it may not lead to accurate figures, although it is supported by many unions, and some other experts have said that alternative measures have weaknesses when it comes to measuring consumer price inflation.
The Nuffield Trust, a health think tank, used the different CPIH measure of inflation to calculate that junior doctors have experienced a roughly 14% fall in their pay since 2010.
We’re not sure where the claim that junior doctors are asking for a 26% pay rise came from.
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HIRING
We're recruiting for a new Senior Political Journalist.
Help us tackle misleading claims from politicians at a crucial time, as we prepare for the next general election.
The role is remote-first, with an office available in central London, and offers a salary of £36,700-£41,700 depending on experience.
Applications close on 13 March.
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FACT CHECK
A former nurse and campaigner against vaccines, Kate Shemirani, has made false claims about vaccines on social media. We’ve checked several false claims about the Covid-19 vaccines by Ms Shemirani before.
Ms Shemirani claimed that no vaccine has ever been proven safe or effective, and that no two vaccines have ever been tested together for their efficacy. She also suggested that children can now expect to receive “almost 100 vaccines on the Recommended schedule.” These claims are all false.
Claims like these are part of a wider problem with misinformation about vaccines. Bad information about vaccines could influence the decisions people make about their health, and false claims about Covid-19 vaccines may have contributed to reduced uptake in certain communities.
The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA)–which licences vaccines for use in the UK–told Full Fact that no vaccine would be approved in the UK unless it met stringent standards for safety, quality and effectiveness.
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MORE FACT CHECKS
Also this week...
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All the best,
Team Full Fact
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