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** No Confirmation of COVID-19 Origin
------------------------------------------------------------

The Wall Street Journal and other news outlets this week reported that the U.S. Department of Energy has assessed with “low confidence” that a lab accident in China caused the COVID-19 pandemic.

The news reports resulted in a flood of online posts and commentators wrongly claiming that this means the U.S. government has confirmed or "finally" admitted that a lab leak in Wuhan started the pandemic. It doesn't.

As Managing Editor Lori Robertson reports, there's still no proof of how the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes COVID-19, originated, and government agencies are divided on its origin.

Four U.S. intelligence entities, along with the National Intelligence Council, say a natural spillover from an animal to humans is the most likely cause. Until this week, the FBI was the only U.S. agency to support -- with "moderate confidence" -- the lab-leak theory.

The Energy Department assessment was reportedly based on new information, but news accounts so far indicate that the new information -- which hasn't been made public -- wasn’t convincing to the intelligence agencies that favor the natural spillover theory or to two entities that remain undecided.

Michael Worobey, head of the ecology and evolutionary biology department of the University of Arizona who has written about the origins of COVID-19, told the Associated Press it “speaks volumes” that the Energy Department’s information “apparently didn’t move the needle” for other entities in the intelligence community.

As we wrote ([link removed]) in June 2021, most scientists suspect a zoonotic spillover in which the virus transferred from bats, or through an intermediate animal, to humans — the same way the SARS and MERS coronaviruses originated. But no host animal has yet been identified, and some scientists say a lab accident is possible.

Since our June 2021 article, Worobey has co-authored two articles published in July 2022 by Science that support the natural spillover hypothesis. “The scientific literature contains essentially nothing but original research articles that support a natural origin of this virus pandemic,” he told the Associated Press.

One of the Science articles found “the earliest known COVID-19 cases from December 2019, including those without reported direct links, were geographically centered on” the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan and that mammals susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 were sold there at the time. It acknowledged that while the “exact circumstances remain obscure, our analyses indicate that the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 occurred through the live wildlife trade in China and show that the Huanan market was the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic.”

For more, read Lori's story, "Still No Determination on COVID-19 Origin. ([link removed]) "
HOW WE KNOW
The intergovernmental negotiating body ([link removed]) of the World Health Organization has been meeting this week in Geneva to begin work on what it calls an “international pandemic treaty ([link removed]) .” In a story about false claims circulating about the organization's plans, Staff Writer Catalina Jaramillo interviewed Lawrence O. Gostin, a global health law professor at Georgetown University, who is involved in drafting the pact. Read more ([link removed]) .
FEATURED FACT
Under President Joe Biden, the U.S. and South Korea in March 2021 announced a new five-year Special Measures Agreement ([link removed]) , which called for South Korea to increase its shared cost of the U.S. military presence in that country by 13.9% in 2021. In the remaining four years, the agreement calls for South Korea to increase its contribution to the U.S. military at the same rate as it increases its own defense spending. Read more ([link removed]) .
REPLY ALL

Reader: A friend told me that Ukraine and Russian war casualties are significant, especially Ukraine's, unlike what we have read and is reported in the news.

FactCheck.org Director Eugene Kiely: Accurate numbers are hard to come by, as Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, acknowledged at aJan. 20 press conference ([link removed]) :

Milley: In terms of casualties, you know, the numbers of casualties in war are always suspect in --- but I would tell you that the Russian casualties -- last time I reported out -- on it publicly, I said it was well over 100,000. I would say it's significantly well over 100,000 now. …

Milley: Ukraine has also suffered tremendously. You know that there's a significant amount of innocent civilians that have been killed in a result of the Russian actions. The Russians are hitting civilian infrastructure. There's a significant amount of economic damage, a significant amount of damage to the energy infrastructure, and the Russian -- or the Ukrainian military has suffered a significant amount of casualties themselves. So this is a very, very bloody war and there's significant casualties on both sides. And this is why I say that I think that -- at -- sooner or later, this is going to have to get to a negotiating table at some point in order to bring this to a conclusion, and that will have to happen when the end state, which is a free, sovereign, independent Ukraine with its territory intact, is met.

On Jan. 22, a Norwegian military official said this in an interview ([link removed]) with France TV2 about Russian casualties:

"Russian losses are beginning to approach around 180,000 dead or wounded soldiers," Norwegian defence chief General Eirik Kristoffersen said in an interview with TV2, without specifying how the numbers were calculated. ...

"Ukrainian losses are probably over 100,000 dead or wounded. In addition Ukraine has about 30,000 civilians who died in this terrible war," said the Norwegian general.

On Jan. 23, a senior U.S. military official was asked at a background briefing ([link removed]) about the Norwegian general's estimate:

Senior military official: Yeah, thanks, Dan. So as specific as I can get, you know, I'd refer you to the chairman's comments during the -- the press briefing on Friday, where he said, you know, well over 100,000 in terms of Russian casualties. That's about as specific as -- as I'm going to be able to get.

I would say on the Ukrainian side, again, without getting into numbers, clearly, you know, Ukraine has also experienced a high number of casualties, it's been a very tough fight, but for operation and security reasons, I'm -- I'm not going to get more specific than that.

On Feb. 17, the U.K. Ministry of Defence said in its daily intelligence briefing ([link removed]) that Russian armed forces and private military contractors have “likely” suffered between 175,000 and 200,000 casualties, including 40,000 to 60,000 “likely” deaths.


** Wrapping Up
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Here's what else we've got for you this week:
* "NTSB Chair Contradicts Posts That Wrongly Claim Trump to Blame for Ohio Train Wreck ([link removed]) ": The National Transportation Safety Board’s chair said an Obama-era rule the Trump administration nixed would not have prevented the derailment of a train in Ohio, as some partisan commentators inaccurately claim. The rule requiring a new electronic braking system for certain trains carrying hazardous cargo did not apply to that train.
* "Multiple Federal Agencies Supporting East Palestine, Contrary to Partisan Claims ([link removed]) ": The people affected by the train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, do not qualify for direct financial aid from the Federal Emergency Management Agency. But FEMA and other federal agencies have been assisting since the accident there in early February. Social media posts have misleadingly claimed that the federal government has denied aid.
* "No Evidence Pfizer Conducting Any Inappropriate Coronavirus Experiments ([link removed]) ": Scientists say the experiments Pfizer has performed on the coronavirus are standard for the industry. Baseless claims that the company is mutating the virus for profit, however, have been circulating since the release of a popular undercover video from the conservative activist group Project Veritas.
* "Posts Distort Soros’ Comments on a DeSantis Candidacy ([link removed]) ": Billionaire George Soros said Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis “is likely to be the Republican candidate” in the 2024 presidential race. But social media posts edited Soros’ remarks to falsely claim he endorsed the governor. Soros’ full remarks show that he does not support DeSantis for president and that he hopes for “a Democratic landslide.”
* "Trump’s False Claim About Defense ‘Deal’ with South Korea ([link removed]) ": Former President Donald Trump, who has regularly complained about the amount of money South Korea pays the U.S. to maintain American military bases there, falsely claimed this week that he “had a deal [with South Korea] for full payment to us, $Billions, and Biden gave it away.”
* "WHO ‘Pandemic Treaty’ Draft Reaffirms Nations’ Sovereignty to Dictate Health Policy ([link removed]) ": Members of the World Health Organization are in the process of developing a new agreement to prevent, prepare for and respond to pandemics. A preliminary draft presented in February reaffirms nations’ sovereign right to make their own health policies during global pandemics, contrary to false claims online.
* "Social Media Posts Misrepresent Zelenskyy’s Remarks on U.S. Military Involvement ([link removed]) ": Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy predicted that if Russia’s invasion of his country is successful, it will invade nearby NATO countries, triggering a war involving the U.S. military. Some conservative commentators misleadingly claimed that he’d called upon the U.S. to “send their sons and daughters to war for Ukraine and potentially die.”

Y lo que publicamos en español ([link removed]) (English versions are accessible in each story):
* "Pruebas limitadas de la relación entre el paracetamol y el autismo o el trastorno por déficit de atención e hiperactividad ([link removed]) ": Pregúntele a SciCheck responde a las preguntas de los lectores sobre si tomar Tylenol durante el embarazo puede causar autismo o TDAH. No hay pruebas sólidas de que sea así. Los expertos recomiendan su uso cuando sea necesario y previa consulta con un médico.

Do you like FactCheck.Weekly? Share it with a friend! They can subscribe here ([link removed]) .
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