On gambling, getting advice, and the songs we sing to ourselves. ♠♥♣♦

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** EconThoughts:
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** On Gambling, Getting Advice, And The Songs We Sing To Ourselves.
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This November, I found myself singing Kenny Roger’s “The Gambler” while running errands around Jerusalem. With the signature twang of its pedal steel guitar, and a storyline Rogers himself connected to life in the American frontier, it’s a song, I’m certain, that is rarely sung on Middle Eastern streets. Yet its lyrics convey a lesson that transcends culture, and to which all of us can undoubtedly relate:

"You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away and know when to run
You never count your money when you're sitting' at the table
There'll be time enough for counting' when the dealing's done"

The song is about two strangers on a train, one of whom gives his down-on-his-luck interlocuter advice about poker. Not surprisingly, we at EconTalk had just finished producing Russ’s episode with the former professional poker player Annie Duke ([link removed]) . And like the wizened old gambler, Duke insists that an important part of success—in poker, as in business and in life—is knowing when to fold: There is power, she argues in her new book Quit, in walking away. So far, so familiar to anyone who has faced a tough decision, or even just a fork in the road. One of her book’s most fascinating insights, however, is her explanation of why we find it so hard to cry uncle. Why does it usually feel more “right,” or even easier, to stick a tough situation out?

Surveying some of the EconTalk episodes related to decision-making from the past year or so may offer a clue. Psychology professor Angela Duckworth, in the episode on grit ([link removed]) , provides a persuasive case for why success is driven less by I.Q. or circumstance than by passion and perseverance. Indeed, one of the most interesting of her many interesting findings was that mastery, a la Malcom Gladwell, isn’t achieved simply by putting in one’s 10,000 hours. Rather, the quantity of time spent in pursuit of a goal must be matched by the quality of one’s effort and motivations. Likewise, journalist and adventurer Michael Easter in the episode on the “Comfort Crisis” ([link removed]) explains why modern life’s emphasis on making things easy has resulted in rising rates of anxiety, depression, and a general sense of pointlessness. Living a healthy life, he says, means occasionally stepping outside
our comfort zones, and forcing ourselves to do something we didn’t think we were capable of.

In other words, to both Duckworth and Easter, when the going gets tough, the question is almost never whether to fold ‘em. Having bound decision-making up so intimately with character, both thinkers are naturally focused on positive prescriptions, or the ways we can mold or push ourselves to be the people we want to be. How, then, can we square Duke’s pragmatic advice on quitting with Duckworth and Easter’s aspirational analysis of perseverance? I would argue: We don’t. Rather than hear these experts’ advice as mutually exclusive, we should listen to them like the young gambler did to the advice in Rogers’ song: As equally true and important—and always dependent on individual circumstance.

As Russ wrote in his new book Wild Problems ([link removed]) , knowing when to hold or fold our cards in the game of life requires that we first know who we want to be and what it is we want to achieve. And since everyone will define personal success differently, the act of quitting could be the most courageous move one could make in service of a specific outcome. Likewise, it might be the right or only way for someone else to reach his longed-for destination. Or, as Duke herself explains in one of the most powerful arguments for packing it in I’ve ever heard: Sometimes, the effects our perseverance might have on other people make turning back—even when within reach of Mt. Everest’s summit—a moral imperative. Either way, it’s clear that how we choose to frame our decisions—the songs we sing to ourselves—will ultimately prove as important as their outcomes.

I hope I’ve given you an ace you can keep. Until next time, enjoy the listening.
-Marla Braverman, editor at EconTalk


** Mining the Conversation
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** Past EconTalk episodes that relate to the subject of perseverance and its possible drawbacks:
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Kieran Setiya on Midlife: ([link removed])
Part-guide to the perplexed 40-something, part-philosophical exercise, Midlife, the new book by MIT philosopher Kieran Setiya, argues that a well-lived life requires less open-and-closed projects and more ongoing pursuits. He also claims that, regrets notwithstanding, both past mistakes and paths not taken can turn out to be very good things. Topics discussed include the importance of emphasizing the present moment, the surprising fact that options are usually overrated, and the uplifting takeaway from lost chances in life.

Bent Flyvbjerg on Megaprojects: ([link removed])
Boston’s Big Dig, the Channel Tunnel, the Sydney Opera House and California’s High-Speed Rail: What these and most all megaprojects have in common is their tendency to come in way over budget—and to massively under-deliver in promised benefits. In this episode, the Danish geographer Bent Flyvberg explains why these projects are almost always financial failures; the reasons why they keep being built anyway; and why “lock-in,” or the escalating commitment of decision-makers to an ineffective course of action, ensures that once they’re started, they’ll almost certainly never be stopped—even though, in many cases, it would be the financially prudent thing to do.

Paul Tough on How Children Succeed: ([link removed])
Why do some children who have faced early adversity succeed, while others struggle, in school and in life? In contrast to the common wisdom—that cognitive abilities will eventually out—author Paul Tough argues that the qualities that make the most difference to performance have more to do with character than anything else. Curiosity, conscientiousness, optimism, and yes, perseverance are the keys to unlocking opportunity, and creating environment that cultivate these virtues, he argues, should be the goal of parents, schools, and public policy.


** Conversation Starters
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** An eclectic selection of books, films, and podcasts for enhancing your own conversations on the topic.
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Into Thin Air by John Krakauer. This bestselling work of nonfiction details Krakauer’s experience in the 1996 Mount Everest disaster, in which eight climbers were killed and several others were stranded by an unexpected storm. Takeaways include the concept that persistence is not always a virtue, that plans for quitting should be part of any solid strategy, and that—in climbing as in life—we frequently forget that summitting must come second to living to tell the story.

127 Hours, a 2010 movie about a lone canyoneer who is pinned down by a boulder in an isolated region of southeastern Utah. Based on the memoir by Aron Ralston, the film depicts the five days he struggled, physically and mentally, to survive his ordeal, and the extraordinary steps and sacrifices he made in order to come home alive.

Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman. The groundbreaking work by the world-famous psychologist and Nobel Prize winner that explains the two systems that drive the way we think. He also reveals why we shouldn’t trust our intuitions, and why—a la Annie Duke—the worst time to make decisions is in the thick of the action.

Of Human Bondage by W. Somerset Maugham. The classic coming-of-age novel with a twist: Orphan Philip Carey becomes entangled in a decades-long, sadomasochistic obsession with a cruel and manipulative woman who does not—and will never—love him back. Ultimately, the story of Philip’s release from the bondage of his emotions is a story of realizing one’s true goals in life.

The Dip: A Little Book that Teaches You When to Quit (and When to Stick) by Seth Godin. The popular business blogger and bestselling author sets out to prove that winners are really just the best quitters, quitting fast, often, and—most importantly—without any guilt at all. The key, he argues, is determining whether you’re stuck in a temporary setback that will get better if you keep pushing, or if, in truth, it’s a total dead end.
Read More Books!


** Most Talked About
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What was the most listened-to EconTalk episode from 2022? The downloads are in: George Mason University economist and blogger Tyler Cowen on Reading ([link removed]) —or, to be more specific, what he’s reading now, what he’d read again, how many books he reads (per night), and his thoughts on the moral implications of lending books to friends.

LISTEN NOW ([link removed])

EconTalk


** Winding Up
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Upcoming EconTalk guests to listen out for include:

Omer Moav on the origins of the state

Zach Weinersmith on Beowulf

Kevin Kelly on advice for the good life

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