July 31, 2019
Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.
The Trump economy remains strong enough as 2020 fast approaches
The Trump economy grew at 2.93 percent
in 2018, the best year since 2005, according to the most recent data.
Unemployment remains at a 50-year low of 3.7 percent, according to the Bureau
of Labor Statistics. Wage growth since 2017 is the best seen since the
financial crisis, most recently at 2.8 percent growth in the first quarter of
2019. 4.9 million jobs have been created since 2017. For 16-to-64-year-old
working age adults, the economy is definitely improving, the civilian labor
force grew by 2.1 million, outpacing population that increased by about 1
million between 2016 and 2018. Those are good numbers. Former President Barack
Obama got reelected with numbers that were much, much worse.
Video: Pelosi complains but her party voted to build the wall and reprogram military funds for it
Democrats can complain all they
want, but they voted for the bills that gave President Donald Trump all the
authority he needed to build the wall.
Study shows cost of Green New Deal $70,000 per household in first year alone
Americans for Limited Government
President Rick Manning: “The Green New Deal is a national suicide pact, and the
latest report by the Competitive Enterprise Institute shows the immediate
impact it would have on just five states where households would face $70,000 in
increased costs in the first year alone.
The brainchild of Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the leader of
the Venezuelan wing of the Democratic Party, the Green New Deal is not about
saving the environment, but instead is an attempt to destroy the only economic
system in the history of the world which has lifted people out of poverty
creating a middle class – capitalism. The truth is, the cost is more than we
can bear. The true cost of the Green New Deal is the loss of freedom itself.”
James Robbins: The president is right about Baltimore. Are Democrats really prepared to defend failure?
“Ask yourself honestly: Would you
ever consider living in West Baltimore? And are you a racist if you say no? Baltimore
ranks in the top 10 of the least livable cities in America. Until this week, it
was not controversial to point that out. But now that President Donald Trump
has tweeted about Baltimore, it seems as though anyone who criticizes the awful
conditions there is opening themselves up to charges of prejudice.”
The Trump economy remains strong enough as 2020 fast approaches
By Robert Romano
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an inflation adjusted 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2019, upping the ante for the remaining quarters in order to get to 3 percent growth for the year, according to data compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The U.S. economy has not grown above 4 percent since 2000, and not above 3 percent since 2005.
2018 got close, growing at 2.93 percent, the best year since 2005, according to the most recent data. That was better than 2015, which came in at 2.91 percent.
The first quarter the economy grew at 3.1 percent, but with the slowing in the second quarter, now, the economy must catch up in order to get back on track for 3 percent for the year.
To get there, the economy will either need to grow at a reported 6.98 percent in the third quarter, finishing out with 3 percent in the last quarter, or grow at a little more than 5.6 percent for the last two quarters, according to an Americans for Limited Government analysis of the available data.
That may sound like a lot, but it owes in part to the way GDP is calculated on a quarterly basis versus on an annual basis. They are not the same formulas. Don’t think you just average out the quarterly rates to figure out what the annual rate is. That is not how it’s done.
Suffice to say, that’s probably not going to happen. Most likely, the economy winds up in mid-2’s somewhere for the year. Which is not great but not terrible, either.
The Trump economy is still markedly improved from the preceding years. Unemployment remains at a 50-year low of 3.7 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Almost 4.9 million more Americans say they have jobs since Trump took office in Jan. 2017.
Wage growth from 2017 forward is the best seen since the financial crisis, most recently at 2.8 percent growth in the first quarter of 2019. Those are good numbers.
For 16-to-64-year-old working age adults, the economy is definitely improving. While the population of working age adults has increased by about 1 million between 2016 and 2018, the civilian labor force grew by 2.1 million. In 2019, labor participation is still increasing for that group, too, so we’re still on the right track.
That shows that the millions of younger workers who were displaced in the financial crisis and the Great Recession are finally oriented fully into the labor force. Note, that’s excluding the increasing population of Baby Boomer retirees, which appears to have been a drag on growth now and in the future.
Long-term, there could be cause for concern. The U.S. is at 1.76 births per woman. The U.S. went below 2 births per woman from 1973 all the way through 1989. Anything below 2 means the population will eventually begin decreasing without offsets. Similar trends overseas have led to stagnation. Japan is at 1.43 births per woman and has been below 2 since 1975. Now, Japan has barely grown nominally in 20 years amid a declining population.
Some argue these trends could be offset with more immigration. The population of White, non-Hispanics over 16, still the largest chunk of the adult population, is not growing presently in the U.S. Yet, in spite of plenty of immigration the fertility numbers are still on a marked downward trend and have been since 2008. The median age of immigrants is 43, too, so the aging demographics present in other nations is also in play in Mexico and Central America. Mexico for example was at 2.15 births per woman by the latest count and dropping. So, the long-term trend of declining fertility is likely to continue, even with more immigration.
Some growth however comes as those groups with lower labor participation, such as women, enter the labor force. That’s where the slack is, and to the extent we’re seeing growth it’s owed in large part to working-aged adults entering the economy.
So, reorienting to the fast-approaching politics of 2020, the current numbers on growth, jobs and wages are strong enough, most certainly, to buoy President Donald Trump’s reelection prospects next year.
Former President Barack Obama got reelected with numbers that were much, much worse. In Oct. 2012, unemployment was still 7.8 percent. Wages were not growing at all. GDP wound up coming in at 2.2 percent that year. The numbers were slowly improving, though, and that was good enough to get four more years.
But for working aged adults 16-to-64, they were still leaving the labor force. 16-to-64-year-olds not in the labor peaked in 2015 at 55.9 million. Now it’s less than 54 million and dropping, with most of the improvement since 2017.
And Trump can make the case that he’s doing what he can to help the economy grow even faster by bringing production back to the U.S. with better trade deals. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement is before Congress, and Trump continues his tough approach with China.
The point is, in past reelection cycles pocketbook issues have always loomed. The American people are prudent and frugal, too, and as the old saying goes, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government.
Video: Pelosi complains but her party voted to build the wall and reprogram military funds for it
To view online: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZwSimZY-8U
Study shows cost of Green New Deal $70,000 per household in first year alone
July 30, 2019, Fairfax, Va.—Americans for Limited Government President Rick Manning today issued the following statement in response to a new study by the Competitive Enterprise Institute suggesting that implementation of the Green New Deal would cost each household $70,000 in the first year alone:
“The Green New Deal is a national suicide pact, and the latest report by the Competitive Enterprise Institute shows the immediate impact it would have on just five states where households would face $70,000 in increased costs in the first year alone. The brainchild of Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the leader of the Venezuelan wing of the Democratic Party, the Green New Deal is not about saving the environment, but instead is an attempt to destroy the only economic system in the history of the world which has lifted people out of poverty creating a middle class – capitalism. The truth is, the cost is more than we can bear. The true cost of the Green New Deal is the loss of freedom itself.
“If you don’t believe this, just consider what Ocasio-Cortez’ Chief of Staff Saikat Chakrabarti recently told Washington Governor Jay Inslee’s climate director, ‘The interesting thing about the Green New Deal, is it wasn’t originally a climate thing at all... Do you guys think of it as a climate thing?... Because we really think of it as a how-do-you-change-the-entire-economy thing.’
“But Ocasio-Cortez’ brain isn’t the only one who has admitted that climate change is a ruse designed to destroy capitalism, in 2015, Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of U.N.'s Framework Convention on Climate Change clearly stated, ‘This is the first time in the history of mankind that we are setting ourselves the task of intentionally, within a defined period of time, to change the economic development model that has been reigning for at least 150 years, since the Industrial Revolution.’
“The CEI report demonstrates what the destruction of capitalism entails – a $70,000 cost to every household in Alaska, Florida, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania in year one. But the real cost, even more dangerous than the dollar signs which exceed the average household annual income in the United States, is the utter loss of freedom associated with the destruction of capitalism and the hope that it has produced for billions of people around the world.”
To view online: https://getliberty.org/2019/07/study-shows-cost-of-green-new-deal-70000-per-household-in-first-year-alone/
ALG Editor’s Note: In the following featured column from USA Today, James Robbins makes the case that Baltimore is one of the least livable cities in America:
The president is right about Baltimore. Are Democrats really prepared to defend failure?
By James S. Robbins
Ask yourself honestly: Would you ever consider living in West Baltimore? And are you a racist if you say no?
Baltimore ranks in the top 10 of the least livable cities in America. Until this week, it was not controversial to point that out. But now that President Donald Trump has tweeted about Baltimore, it seems as though anyone who criticizes the awful conditions there is opening themselves up to charges of prejudice.
The flap began last week when Rep. Elijah Cummings, whose 7th district covers much of Baltimore City, lashed out at acting Homeland Security Secretary Kevin McAleenan at a hearing on conditions inside illegal alien detention centers. “What does that mean when a child is sitting in their own feces, can’t take a shower?” Cummings shouted. “Come on, man. What’s that about?”
President Trump responded with tweets saying Cummings’ district was “FAR WORSE and more dangerous” than the detention facilities, “a disgusting, rat and rodent infested mess.” The president suggested Cummings focus more on cleaning up this “dangerous & filthy place” than on bullying in hearings about the border issue.
The accusations of racism continue
The president’s remarks were immediately denounced as racist by Democrats and the usual frantic pundits, even though the tweets had no racial content. Trump responded that “Democrats always play the Race Card, when in fact they have done so little for our Nation’s great African American people.”
Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders said Sunday that it was “unbelievable that we have a president of the United States who attacks American cities.” But it was perfectly fine four years ago when Sanders said during a visit to West Baltimore, "Anyone who took the walk that we took around this neighborhood … would think that you were in a Third World country."
Sanders’ comment came in the wake of riots sparked by death of Freddie Gray while in police custody. Articles from that period routinely cited the city’s endemic poverty as a root cause of the rioting. A typical 2015 report from the Associated Press noted that Baltimore “struggles daily with pervasive poverty and widespread joblessness, failing schools, drug addiction, a crumbling infrastructure and corruption.”
President Barack Obama said then that difficult conditions in Baltimore required national “soul searching” — because the $1.8 billion stimulus bonanza he had lavished on the city didn’t seem to solve anything.
Many Americans probably imagine West Baltimore as the gritty, open-air drug mart portrayed in HBO's “The Wire,” and they aren’t that far off. Last year, USA TODAY reported that “Baltimore is the nation's most dangerous big city.”
The poverty rate is over 22%, and the population is shrinking. The city’s politics are riven with endemic corruption — former Mayor Catherine Pugh resigned in disgrace this May. She's the third Baltimore mayor in a row to leave in the wake of intense scandal. Baltimore is dotted with thousands of vacant buildings, and as for rodents, exterminator Orkin listed Baltimore in the top 10 of its annual survey of “rattiest cities.” The 1970s promotional nickname “Charm City” is as ironic as ever.
The city's premier newspaper failed to represent its own territory accurately
The Baltimore Sun rose gamely to the city’s defense against President Trump, editorializing that Baltimore is better than you think, citing inter alia “the beauty of the Inner Harbor or the proud history of Fort McHenry.” (Note that the gentrified Inner Harbor neighborhood is one of the whitest neighborhoods in the city at 68%, so maybe not a great example for the Sun’s purposes.)
“If there are problems here, rodents included,”the newspaper claimed, “they are as much (Trump’s) responsibility as anyone’s, perhaps more because he holds the most powerful office in the land.”
It is a bit of a reach to argue a president in office since 2017 bears more responsibility for city sanitation issues than the local congressman elected to his safe seat in 1996. Maybe the people of the 7th district just need a more effective champion.
It’s hard to say when this latest tweet-based freakout will subside. Will Democrats carry the #WeAreAllBaltimore banner into the 2020 election? Is Baltimore now the model city they will present to the country as the representative product of Democratic social and economic policies in action? Good luck with that.
Critics can continue to shout about racism, but that is no replacement for a rational discussion about the problems of poverty, crime, drug abuse, family breakdown and lack of educational attainment. A job-creating economy will do more in the long run to help the people of Baltimore than endless political posturing about race. It probably already has.
