John,
Last year, we shared a poll commissioned and released by the Adam Frisch campaign that showed Frisch trailing Lauren Boebert by only 2 points among likely voters, well within the 4 point margin of error.
We then asked for supporters to pitch in to The Colorado Turnout Project’s work persuading swing voters that their vote against Boebert mattered, and could end up making the difference in a tight election.
Admittedly, even we were somewhat surprised by how true this wound up being—and just how tight the result (Frisch narrowly lost by less than 600 votes) actually was.
It should be said that we took some flak for promoting that poll, and claiming that Frisch actually could win. Many said the private poll was flawed; without crosstabs, we couldn’t do the deep dive necessary to validate it. Some said no matter what any poll, focus group, or any candidate ever says, Lauren Boebert could not and would not be defeated—especially in a Midterm election with a first-term Democratic president.
These were fair critiques! We responded civilly to each of these points. Of course the poll could be bunk; many polls are. And yes, it would be easy to say that Boebert would likely coast to reelection in a district that became more Republican-leaning after redistricting.
But here’s why we stood by the data, and continue to stand by our mission to defeat and replace Boebert with a real public servant: Adam Frisch fit the district. He was running a strong campaign. He raised money. And the poll showed serious concerns among the electorate about Boebert’s “Christian nationalist rhetoric” (which persists even today) and her negative public image as a culture war lightning rod.
