Top Lines: Immigration And The Border | US Economy And Trade Policy | 2020 Election And Political Analysis | Protecting Our Elections And Disinformation | Impeachment | Countering Illiberalism's Rise

Notes On 2020 – The images that we see today of the Senate Impeachment trial and the President at Davos while in many ways distant from one another speak to the same story – the savaging of America and its democracy by the President and his party.  The President arrives in Davos a reviled global leader, unfaithful, unsteady, and increasingly seen as dangerous.  As conservative columnist Max Boot wrote last night: “The number of people abroad who express confidence in the US president fell from 70% in 2013 to 28% in 2018 while the number who see the U.S. as a threat climbed from 25% to 45%. More Germans now view Trump as a danger than Kim, Putin, Xi, and Khamenei combined.”

Here at home, the President’s illiberal disdain for our democracy and its inherent limits and virtues will be on full display over the next few weeks. While many had anticipated that Senator McConnell would “rig” the trial for the President, few anticipated the extraordinary lengths he has chosen to go and how closely he has aligned the once august US Senate with the President’s historic venality. This type of contempt for democratic norms and institutions is part of a broader embrace by the Republican Party of what we call "Moscow Rules" in our politics. Our hope is that GOP Senators and the presiding Judge improve the absurd package McConnell has proposed, and allow a fair hearing of what sure appears to be extensive crimes committed by the President and many who work for him. 

Over the past few weeks we’ve argued that it was going to be far harder for McConnell to get the Senate to acquittal than conventional wisdom holds, and his actions in the last 24 hours actions are not those of a leader confident of winning.  A just released CNN poll shows that Mitch is right to be worried, as it confirms that he and the President are losing the big arguments that they need to win this Impeachment fight - 69% of Americans want to hear from new witnesses; 58% believe that he abused his power; 57% believe that he obstructed Congress; by 51%-45% Americans want the Senate to remove him; his job approval is 43% approve, 53% disapprove; Americans disapprove of the GOP's handling of the Senate trial by 54%-39%; and only 37% approve of Trump’s handling of the Senate trial.  These are shockingly poor numbers on issues of such importance to the President (ones consistent with the last few weeks of polling) and suggest that whatever the outcome of the trial, the President has become a spent force in the life of our country. A majority of Americans are ready to see him go. 

As for the Democrats, we share 538’s assessment that Joe Biden has the best chance of winning the nomination.  The last two polls taken in Iowa have him ahead, and 538 has him leading in all four early states right now. Bernie Sanders’ attacks on Biden and Warren have felt desperate, were poorly executed, and probably have done him more harm than good. It is a reminder that as someone who isn’t now and has never been a Democrat, Bernie has never shied from attacking Democrats and the Democratic Party itself. It remains a bit shocking that a career politician who has spent his career outside the Democratic Party believes he could ever effectively lead it. 

Time For Congress To Revive The WTO - Earlier this month, NDN argued that Congress should not wash its hands of trade policy now that the USMCA has been passed, but instead must challenge the President's larger, destructive trade strategy. A key first step in this responsibility should be to re-open the World Trade Organization's dispute resolution body, which was effectively shut down when the Trump administration refused to appoint new judges to fill open seats. This is a goal that should attain wide bipartisan support - the dispute resolution courts are a key mechanism by which the US can stop other countries from harming American exporters and workers and the track record of decisions passed by the body has been very positive for the US over the past two decades. Indeed, just last year the US won a case against China for illegal subsidies to its grain farmers and in the 15 cases ruled upon between the US and China since 2002, the US has won 11 times and China only 4 times. You can read more about NDN's analysis of the economic costs of Trump's trade wars here, and find NDN's broader work on trade and economic policy under the Trump administration here.

Best,

Simon, Chris, and the rest of the NDN team

 

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