While Immigrant Employment Is Up 2 Million Over 2019  

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Native Employment Still 1.9 Million Below Pre-covid Level ([link removed])
While Immigrant Employment Is Up 2 Million Over 2019
Washington, D.C. (February 16, 2023) - An analysis of government data from the fourth quarter of 2022 by the Center for Immigration Studies shows that in contrast to immigrants, the number working and the share of U.S.-born Americans in the labor force has not returned to pre-pandemic levels. While the unemployment rate is low for the U.S.- and foreign-born, this obscures the long-term decline in the labor force participation rate of the U.S.-born, particularly those without a bachelor’s degree. Those not in the labor force do not show up as unemployed because they have not looked for a job in the four weeks prior to being surveyed.

The share of the working-age U.S.-born (16-64) in the labor force — working or looking for work — remains below pre-pandemic levels and has been declining for decades. If the labor force participation rate for the U.S.-born in the fourth quarter of 2022 was what it had been in 2000, then 6.4 million more Americans would be in the labor force.

“The real problem in the labor market is not a lack of workers, but rather the decades-long decline in the share of Americans in the labor force,” said Steven Camarota, the Center’s Director of Research and co-author of the report. “This decline is a disaster for the economy, and more important for society, as being out of the labor force is associated with numerous problems including crime, drug abuse and even an early death.”

Among the findings:
* There were 1.9 million fewer U.S.-born Americans working in the fourth quarter of 2022 than in the same quarter of 2019 before Covid. In contrast, the number of immigrants (legal and illegal) working was up two million over the same time period. The rapid growth in immigrant workers is well above the pre-pandemic trend line.
* There were a total of 5.5 million 16-plus unemployed immigrants and U.S.-born Americans in the fourth quarter of 2022 and the overall unemployment rate was just 3.3 percent.
* The unemployed does not include those entirely out of the labor force — neither working nor looking for work. There were 54 million working-age (16-64) immigrants and U.S.-born Americans not in the labor force, creating a total of 59.5 million people not working, some share of whom could potentially work.
* There has been a decades-long decline in the labor force participation rate of the U.S.-born of working-age (16 to 64), from 77.3 percent in 2000 to 73.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022.
* If the labor force participation rate for the working-age U.S.-born in the fourth quarter of 2022 was what it had been in the fourth quarter of 2000, then 6.4 million more people would be in the labor force (Figure 4)
* The long-term decline in the labor force participation rate is especially pronounced among the less-educated. The rate for U.S.-born adults ages 18 to 64 without a bachelor’s degree was 70.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022, down from 71.4 percent in 2019, before Covid; 74.8 percent in 2006, before the Great Recession; and 76.4 percent at the peak of the expansion in 2000.
* Men who are of “prime working age” (25 to 54) traditionally are the most likely to work. But of prime-age U.S.-born men without a bachelor’s degree, only 83.7 percent were in the labor force in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to 85.1 percent in 2019, 88.1 percent in 2006, and 89.3 percent in 2000.
* Though the decline is not as pronounced, the labor force participation of prime-age immigrant men without a bachelor’s degree has also declined some. After peaking at 93.4 percent in 2007, it was 90.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022.
* Women traditionally have lower rates of work than men, often due to child-care responsibilities, though the falloff in fertility means fewer women have children. The labor force participation rate of less-educated U.S.-born women of prime age has declined from 76.1 percent in 2000 to 72 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022.
* At 63.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022, the labor force participation rate for less-educated, prime-age immigrant women is a good deal lower than their U.S.-born counterparts, but it has not declined in the way that it has for U.S.-born women.

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