Next week marks one year since Russia invaded Ukraine, an assault that has caused massive internal displacement and sent more than 8 million people fleeing the country to date. The vast majority of internationally displaced Ukrainians have been treated warmly in their host countries. More than 4.8 million have benefited from the first-ever grant under the European Union’s Temporary Protection Directive, and large numbers were allowed humanitarian entry to the United States, Canada, and countries around the globe. Millions also headed to Russia, where they received preferential treatment that contrasts with the generally cold approach the Kremlin takes towards labor migrants from other post-Soviet countries, as Caress Schenk recently described in the Migration Information Source. It was one thing for countries around the world to hurriedly roll out a welcome mat for Ukrainians, given the West’s geopolitical rivalry with Russia and large-scale horror at the Russian military campaign. But one year later, are countries still so eager to host Ukrainians? And are Ukrainians themselves eager to return to rebuild their shattered country? To the first question, the answer seems to be an overwhelming yes. Two-thirds of adults in 28 countries say their nation should take in Ukrainian refugees, according to an Ipsos poll released last month, a slight decline from last March/April but still a hefty majority. As to the second question, the answer is more nuanced. Eighty-one percent of Ukrainians living in Europe, Canada, or the United States planned to return eventually, according to research by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) released in September, and only 4 percent said they had no hope of going back. But the share of Ukrainians planning to return in the near future was slightly lower in September (13 percent) than in July (16 percent). This situation is not unique. Forcibly displaced people often intend their flight to be only temporary, but as war drags on the prospect of return becomes dimmer, as do individuals’ hopes for what might await them. In 2021, for instance, 70 percent of Syrian refugees told UNHCR they intended to return to Syria one day; last year, the number had declined to 58 percent. It is unclear whether host communities’ attitudes will change if the population of displaced Ukrainians becomes increasingly permanent. Individuals’ needs have evolved over the last year, and the challenges of long-term displacement can be more complex than those of new arrivals, as Tamar Jacoby recently examined from Poland. Many places are seeing increasingly strained service delivery and housing markets, which have spillover effects as the European Union faces a rising number of asylum seekers from elsewhere in the world. Sadly, the prospect of peace in Ukraine appears dim. For now, the only thing possible to predict is more uncertainty. Julian Hattem
Editor, Migration Information Source
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