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**FEBRUARY 13, 2023**

Kuttner on TAP

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**** A Cure for the Biden Blues?

Or 21 months of nail-biting between now and November 2024

Since Biden's triumphant State of the Union address, conversations
among Democrats have gone in two directions:

(a) Wow, the old guy still has it. He brilliantly laid a trap for the
Republicans. When they walked into it, he was even great at the ad-libs.
Who knew? We were wrong that he shouldn't run in 2024.

(b) It was one good day, with a short half-life. Biden is not getting
any younger. The speech got high approval ratings, but Biden's own
ratings seem stuck underwater. Won't someone please talk him out of
running?

My heart is with (a), but my head is with (b).

Except that no senior Democratic pol is going to tell a successful
president not to seek re-election. I have confirmed that with
interviews.

So there are three possible ways to avert what could be a rout in 2024,
and two of them involve Donald Trump.

First, Trump's support has weakened but he can still win nomination if
more Republican contenders get into the race and divide the anti-Trump
vote. Republican primaries in most states still have either
winner-take-all or a hybrid system
<[link removed]>. So in a
fragmented field, Trump's 30 percent is a sweep. (Go Mike Pence, go
Nikki Haley.) And Trump is the one Republican whom Biden can readily
beat.

Second, Trump loses the GOP nomination. Out of sheer spite, he runs as
an independent. He has hinted at that. The Republican vote is split, and
Biden wins handily, maybe takes 35 states.

Third, something persuades Biden (and first lady Jill Biden) that he
should not run after all.

I would not bet the farm on any of these scenarios. And yet the farm is
at risk. Biden may gain some ground for competence and sanity as House
Republicans keep displaying the lunacy of their party. But they could
also drag him down with them, as in the debt ceiling standoff.

The likely outcome is that an electable Republican like Ron DeSantis
wins the nomination, and it's trench warfare in 2024. All we can do is
what Democrats did in 2020: Recognizing that Biden was not our first
choice and recognizing the stakes, we go all out to elect him.

Oh, and he also needs sufficient coattails to win big and prevent a
steal in a close election, and also bring in a Democratic Congress with
him. Only that. Sheesh.

This will be my last item on election prognostication for a while. It
is, as they say, a mug's game.

So permit me a few words on other topics.

I'm delighted by the response to these On TAP newsletters that I write
three times a week. It turns out to be a great format-shorter than a
column, longer than a tweet. Subscribing to On TAP newsletters makes it
easy to read our stuff. But this is not all that we at the

**Prospect** do.

So I am taking the liberty of flagging a few other recent pieces that
you might like. If you are not in the habit of checking out prospect.org
<[link removed]>, I urge you to do so.

In several pieces, I've been going after the Fed's insane policy of
trying to crush the economy even as inflation is clearly subsiding.
Here's one
<[link removed]>.
And I follow what it will take to make Biden's bold climate and "build
America" programs actually succeed
<[link removed]>.

I also hope you follow the stunning work of our executive editor, David
Dayen <[link removed]>, among other great

**Prospect** colleagues. Here is a characteristic Dayen tour de force on
the rise of monopoly
<[link removed]>
and efforts of Biden's appointees to contain it.

I will be recommending other important pieces from time to time. Thanks
for reading.

~ ROBERT KUTTNER

To receive this newsletter directly in your inbox, click here to
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Follow Robert Kuttner on Twitter <[link removed]>

[link removed]

The Last Pandemic Welfare Supports Get Kicked Out
<[link removed]>
Expirations around Medicaid and food stamps reinforce how Democrats
failed to live up to professed ambitions on the welfare state. BY DAVID
DAYEN

Republicans Furiously Defend Insurance Company Looting of Medicare
<[link removed]>
Medicare Advantage is a scam. That's why conservatives love it. BY
RYAN COOPER

The Difference Between Expertise and Marketing
<[link removed]>
Attacks on aggressive antitrust enforcement from 'fellow Democrats'
who work for monopolists should be seen for what they are. BY JEFF
HAUSER & ANDREA BEATY

 

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