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In this mailing:
* Gordon G. Chang: Why Is America Desperate to Talk to China After Balloon Intrusion?
* Amir Taheri: Syria: The War Has Not Ended


** Why Is America Desperate to Talk to China After Balloon Intrusion? ([link removed])
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by Gordon G. Chang • February 12, 2023 at 5:00 am
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m/oexchange/0.8/forward/email/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.gatestoneinstitute.org%2F19397%2Famerica-desperate-china&pubid=ra-52f7af5809191749&ct=1&title=Why+Is+America+Desperate+to+Talk+to+China+After+Balloon+Intrusion%3F [link removed]
* There are many things wrong about Austin's attempts to communicate with Wei. As an initial matter, Wei's rank is far below Austin's.
* Our defense secretary should insist, when he talks, to talk to the people in charge.
* Americans are big on "dialogue." They believe as an article of faith, that there must be communication to maintain relations. In fact, communication with China has over the course of decades made matters worse.
* How so? American attempts at dialogue empower the worst elements in the Chinese political system by showing everyone else that bad conduct works. The cycle is well known in Beijing: China engages in belligerent conduct and America then tries to placate the hostile regime. Desperate attempts to talk make America look like a supplicant.
* Austin, if he were to call, should have done so as the craft approached U.S. airspace in late January.
* The People's Liberation Army has continued to ignore communication mechanisms.
* No agreement can get Chinese officials to engage in dialogue when they consider dialogue to not be in their interests. In short, China will talk only when it wants to.
* America should reverse the dynamic and break off communication with China. Severing dialogue could intimidate Chinese leaders and officials. What will Beijing think when normally eager-to-talk Americans do not call and even refuse to answer their phone?
* Moreover, the U.S. can up the pressure by ordering Beijing to close its remaining four consulates and to strip down its overly large embassy to just the ambassador. Ordering the closures and expulsions now will, among other things, emphasize that America is no longer willing to tolerate dangerous behavior.
* If these steps do not work, Washington can end other ties — trade, investment, technical cooperation — that China needs for its struggling economy, something the U.S. should do anyway.
* [T]he riskiest policy of all is to continue with an approach that created this perilous situation in the first place.

American attempts at dialogue empower the worst elements in the Chinese political system by showing everyone else that bad conduct works. China engages in belligerent conduct and America then tries to placate the hostile regime. Desperate attempts to talk make America look like a supplicant. Pictured: US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet at the G20 Summit in Bali, Indonesia on November 14, 2022.

"We believe in the importance of maintaining open lines of communication between the United States and the PRC in order to responsibly manage the relationship," declared Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, Pentagon spokesman, in a February 7 statement. "Unfortunately, the PRC has declined our request. Our commitment to open lines of communication will continue."

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had tried to arrange a telephone conversation with China's Defense Minister Gen. Wei Fenghe, after the February 4 shoot-down of the Chinese spy balloon, but the Chinese official refused to take the call.

Austin must now be accustomed to being rebuffed by Wei. In November in Cambodia at a meeting of defense ministers, Austin proposed reopening communication channels that Beijing had ended after then Speaker Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taipei. The Chinese so far have not replied.

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** Syria: The War Has Not Ended ([link removed])
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by Amir Taheri • February 12, 2023 at 4:00 am
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6/syria-war#print
* Another claimant to victory [for ending the war in Syria] was Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who managed to milk the European Union cow to the tune of $5 billion while seizing control of enough Syrian oilfields and mines to ensure a steady revenue stream in what amounts to international robbery.
* The idea that war had ended led to a second mistake: the belief that a United Nations mission could bring "all sides" together in Swiss luxury hotels and persuade them to kiss and forget.
* The latest blow to Assad's position has come from Tehran.
* Faced with a deepening economic crisis of their own, Iran's ruling mullahs have decided to end their "oil on credit" scheme.
* Like it or not, the US is still the only power capable of mobilizing international and regional diplomatic, economic and military support to tackle the herculean task of restoring Syria to a semblance of statehood, as the Clinton administration, massively helped by the EU and NATO, did in Bosnia-Herzegovina. Syria may no longer be front-page news. But even relegated to inside pages, its sinking into the status of "ungoverned territory" poses a threat to regional and international stability and peace.

Syria may no longer be front-page news. But even relegated to inside pages, its sinking into the status of "ungoverned territory" poses a threat to regional and international stability and peace. Pictured: Syrian Kurdish Asayish security forces deploy during a raid against suspected Islamic State terrorists in Raqa, Syria, on January 28, 2023. (Photo by Delil Souleiman/AFP via Getty Images)

Since 2019 when the Syrian tragedy appeared to have reached its denouement, a succession of erroneous analyses, mainly by the powers involved, has prevented the development of a strategy to restore the war-torn nation to a semblance of normality. The first error was the belief that the war had ended.

Russian propaganda spoke of "another triumph" for President Vladimir Putin, with a supposed rerun of his success in "defeating the Chechen Islamic terrorists." In Syria, Putin was re-fighting the war in Chechnya, as he is now re-fighting the Second World War in Ukraine. But since defeat is an orphan and victory has a thousand fathers, despite President Barack Obama's decision to do nothing, the US, too, claimed victory in having brought Syria "back from the brink".

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