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Sailors assigned to Explosive Ordnance Disposal Group 2 recover a high-altitude surveillance balloon off the coast of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, on February 5, 2023. (US Navy Photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Tyler Thompson)
Last weekend, the United States shot down a Chinese spy balloon off the coast of South Carolina. Writing in the New York Post [[link removed]], Director of Hudson’s Center for Defense Concepts and Technology Bryan Clark [[link removed]] explains what the United States should learn from China’s gambit and how to respond.
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Key Insights
1. The balloon was part of China’s “gray-zone” efforts.
The appearance of a Chinese high-altitude balloon above the United States constituted the latest move in China’s “gray-zone” efforts to undermine its rivals’ sovereignty and improve Beijing’s wartime advantage. For more than a decade, China has taken control of the South China Sea not with gunboats, but with a vast fishing fleet. Combined with Beijing’s island-building, the maritime militia gives China de facto control over critical international transit lanes. In recent years these efforts expanded to support illegal fishing in other countries’ waters and sensitive ecological areas. In this context, the balloon can be seen as the first in what could be many such deployments as China seeks to degrade US control over its skies. Moreover, by offering closer looks than surveillance satellites, the balloon could provide Chinese leaders with new intelligence on America’s nuclear ballistic-missile silos, bomber bases, and communications networks.
2. The balloon likely did not veer off course.
China says the balloon went off course and wandered into US airspace. This is unlikely, as stratospheric balloons have been in operation for decades and have well-understood and robust control mechanisms. While not precise, stratospheric balloons like those made by the US company Raven Aerostar for the Pentagon and Google can steer by adjusting their altitude, accessing winds of different speeds and directions that exist at various heights. This technique enables the balloons to maintain station within a few hundred miles of a ground location.
3. The US military should respond in kind.
The Pentagon has experimented with stratospheric balloons in the past, but this deployment shows the difficulty they present to an enemy. Persistent, solar-powered, and able to carry radios and sensors, balloons could give US forces the ability to more closely peer into Chinese airspace and territory in peacetime and create new sources of uncertainty for Beijing. In wartime, balloons could replace the capabilities provided by satellites.
Quotes may be edited for clarity and length.
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What It Took to Stop the Chinese Spy Balloon [[link removed]]
Hudson Senior Fellow Bryan Clark [[link removed]] appeared on Government Matters [[link removed]]to discuss the elevated US-China tension caused by the surveillance balloon, and the difficulties of shooting down a cold target.
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Chinese Balloon Fallout [[link removed]]
Hudson Japan Chair H.R. McMaster [[link removed]] appeared on CBS News [[link removed]] to discuss what the US gains by shooting down the Chinese Communist Party spy balloon.
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Why a Balloon? [[link removed]]
Hudson Asia-Pacific Security Chair Patrick Cronin [[link removed]] appeared on CNN International [[link removed]] to discuss the potential intelligence benefits of using spy balloons, and what China hoped to gain.
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